Trump's South Carolina problem: suburban women

Nikki Haley has appeared on ballots in three states and lost to Donald Trump by double digits in all of them. She trails him by 35 percentage points in her home state of South Carolina and by even wider margins in national polls. Her continued presence in the race not only aggravates Trump, but guarantees the former president’s continued attacks and the likelihood they will become even more vicious.

And yet, she remains confident enough in her prospects of becoming the Republican Party’s eventual nominee that she filed petitions to appear on Pennsylvania’s April primary ballot.

So why does she stay in the race?

Perhaps because Republicans — and Trump in particular — continue to have a woman problem, which provides an opening for her if she’s able to capitalize on it and build some momentum. At least that’s what I learned talking to dozens of suburban Republican women in South Carolina — from Charleston to Greenville — nearly all of whom supported Trump in the past, but are now backing Haley. They told me they’re “ready for a change.” They see their former governor as a “unifier,” an “inspiring role model,” “an underdog” and even for some, the last hope before they abandon the party.

“With the two male candidates, it’s just so negative and nasty and we need something new, and bright, and uplifting,’’ said Paula Bathke, a Haley supporter, who left Minnesota five years ago for Daniel Island, a wealthy enclave of Charleston. She said she can’t vote for Trump again. “It’s a long shot, I know. But you gotta stand up for what's right.”

Further north in Columbia, just blocks from the state Capitol building where Haley spent six years as governor, I met with a group of women who voiced concerns about the country ahead of the state’s Feb. 24 Republican primary, where Haley needs a strong showing if she’s going to sustain a challenge against Trump’s MAGA forces.

A former teacher spoke of the increase in bullying in classrooms, including that experienced by her grandson. A younger voter lamented the “shift” in the Republican Party that brought government “into family and health care decisions” like abortion. Many complained about higher grocery prices and anxiety over international conflicts. They want a swift resolution to the crisis at the Southern border, more talk about the national debt, and less “debating on niche social issues.”

And a self-described conservative Christian explained how Trump’s hypocrisy drove her from the GOP.

“I hear things like ‘family first’ and he's none of those things,’’ said the woman, a lobbyist who asked that she not be named for fear of offending pro-Trump legislators. “He just says that stuff to his base, but it’s not who he is. He didn’t solve the border crisis. We have a better economy under Joe Biden … He’s a known rapist. We knew he cheated on his wives. None of that to me shows he’s a godly Christian leader.”

Not all of the women interviewed were as frank as the lobbyist, but many of them — each college-educated and employed or retired — represent Trump’s enduring vulnerability with suburban women. This prized voting bloc of typically educated, upper-middle-class, and often, but not always married White women, has often been pivotal in elections and will be key to building a winning coalition this November.

But Trump and the GOP have had a woman problem since at least 2018, and listening to these Haley supporters, they still do.

President Biden won 54% of the vote among suburban women in 2020, according to data from the Pew Research Center. In 2022, in the wake of the Supreme Court’s decision overturning Roe v Wade, suburban women loomed large in the upset of many Trump-backed candidates in important states like Pennsylvania, Michigan and Arizona.

Nationally, Haley does much better among women than Trump, but in South Carolina, he outperforms her in every demographic group, except college-educated women, said Patrick Murray, a Monmouth/Washington Post pollster. A recent Quinnipiac University poll found that in a head-to-head match-up with Biden, Haley wins by 5 percentage points. But with her conservative credentials and her support for a national 15-week abortion ban, she still doesn’t close the gender gap.

In my interviews with suburban Republican women in South Carolina, they were nearly universal in their frustrations with Trump — tired of his coarse rhetoric, the negative media attention, and a catalyst for what many described as the national decline in civility. Where they differed was whether they would abandon him if Haley drops out, or settle for him against Biden.

At a Haley rally on Daniel Island, Danielle O’Shea brought her 9-year-old daughter because, she said, it’s not the economy that gets her agitated about the election, it’s Trump’s tone and “how demeaning he is to women.” She didn’t vote for Trump in 2016 or 2020 and doesn’t want to vote for him this time either.

“I have two daughters. I want our president to be a role model on some level,’’ she said. “I just feel like he’s a misogynist and I can’t handle that.”

On the campaign trail, Haley makes little mention of Trump’s misogyny but blasts him as “unhinged,” “insecure” and a “bully.” She ignored him when he insulted her for the dress she wore the night of the New Hampshire primary, and when he referred to her as “birdbrain.” But when he mocked the absence of her husband, who is deployed overseas, Haley went on the attack, releasing a new digital ad and sending fundraising messages accusing Trump of lacking the mental fitness and competence to serve as commander in chief.

Several women also said they no longer support Trump because they don’t think he can win.

“I really would prefer Donald Trump not be [the nominee] because I don’t think he will be elected,’’ said Charleston resident Lucia Oswald, 68. She voted for Trump twice, but now wants Haley. “If he gets the nomination, it’ll be Biden.’’

But with the South Carolina primary just days away, Haley’s candidacy is in peril. She tells audiences, “I’m not going anywhere” and argues that for Republicans to win in November they have to “broaden the tent.” Her stronger showing in the New Hampshire primary underscored Trump’s weakness with independents and moderate voters, but among women voters, the two nearly tied.

Buoyed by a stream of funds from wealthy donors, Haley says she intends to stay in the race through March 5, when 16 states will hold their nominating contests on Super Tuesday. She now needs to pull off a Super Bowl-like finish to pick up thousands of votes. But she’s been pulling her punches against Trump for so long that a late-in-the-game drive to bring in new voters will have to land perfectly.

Gibbs Knott, a political scientist at the College of Charleston, suggests Haley has the narrowest of windows to succeed. South Carolina voters can vote in either party's primary, and in-migration brought more than 400,000 additional registered voters since 2016. If Haley “can get independents and a few Democrats to come over and vote for her in the primary, it can be somewhat competitive,’’ he said.

Theresa McAnnar of Somerville is one of those Democrats. After hearing Haley answer questions at an event sponsored by the Charleston Post and Courier, McAnnar said Haley had earned her vote over Biden.

“I have been a committed Democrat my entire life — very liberal,’’ she said. But she was “impressed” with Haley as governor. “I didn’t want to be, but she made things work.”

So what happens for Haley supporters if she falters? Some said a vote for Trump was out of the question and they would cast a reluctant ballot for Biden.

“If Trump is reelected, I would not be proud to be an American under Donald Trump,’’ Daniel Island resident Joyce Erb said.

Another woman, who supports abortion rights, said she voted for the entire Democratic ticket in 2022 in protest. “I don’t want to do that again,’’ she said.

Other Haley supporters said that if Trump sews up the nomination, they will vote for him despite their fears that he would bring tumult and trouble. Trump is their second choice, they said, either because of their intense distrust of Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris, or their abiding attachment to the Republican Party.

“I’m not a huge Trump fan, but if Biden is running, I would vote for my dog,’’ said Tina Boies, a retired teacher living in Columbia.

Most of these women don’t talk about Trump’s baggage — his lies, his legal woes, his assault on the Constitution, his promises to consolidate power, his pursuit of immunity from justice, or his fixation on punishing his enemies. Some said they overlook those things because they are politically-motivated and media-driven.

“He’s controversial and he’s chaos,” said Nancy Hancock, a 75-year-old Haley supporter from Charleston who ultimately expects to vote for Trump. “But people are on a witch hunt for him, and that makes me mad.”

“Yeah. You’re not alone,’’ replied Jamie Finch, co-chair of South Carolina Women for Nikki. “I’m anybody but Biden.”

Mary Ellen Klas is a politics and policy columnist for Bloomberg Opinion. A former capital bureau chief for the Miami Herald, she has covered politics and government for more than three decades.

This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.