Hochul faces big challenges and an uncertain economy

Gov. Kathy Hochul begins her first full term in office with a long to-do list and limited resources — a tricky mix, as she tries to navigate a complicated political terrain and a state on a potentially dangerous fiscal and economic precipice.

It is a difficult, uncertain time for New Yorkers. Recent data from the U.S. Census Bureau shows that the state lost 180,341 residents between July 2021 and July 2022, a 0.9% drop, bringing its loss over the last two years to more than 400,000. Internal Revenue Service data showed that the state lost more than 700 millionaires between 2019 and 2020 — a 1.3% decline. Worries over a potential recession and possible declines in tax revenue percolate. And the state still hasn't fully recovered from the COVID-19 pandemic; job numbers, particularly in New York City, remain down and many who are employed still have not returned to mass transit or the state's commercial and business centers.

With that precarious backdrop for Tuesday's traditional State of the State address, Hochul would be wise to spotlight the state's many challenges, while proposing bold yet achievable solutions. Hochul should remember that a one-size-fits-all approach for a state with very different regions with very different needs, interests, and politics won't work. A more nuanced approach will get better results.

Among Hochul's top priorities in the coming legislative session: housing. In a speech last month, the governor pointed to "a housing crisis that has been decades in the making." Hochul highlighted Westchester County and Long Island as being "at the very bottom of the list for new housing permits." And she noted what she saw as the cause for the crisis, calling the state "a national leader in blocking housing."

She's not wrong. New York — and Long Island, specifically — remain in desperate need of a significant number of housing units, at a variety of price points and a variety of types. And Long Island's intricate maze of town, village, zoning, and planning boards long has been known to stop more projects than it allows to move forward, to add delaying roadblocks along the way, and to make residential development far too complicated and therefore more difficult. Indeed, Matinecock Court — the East Northport housing development that's been more than four decades in the making and might break ground this year — is an example of just how little progress the region has made.

But Hochul has to tread carefully. Incentivizing housing creation and the flexible zoning that will allow for more of it is important. Her unveiling of a state effort last year to provide money for new accessory dwelling units, or ADUs, is a good example. Also key: Finding new and innovative ways to spur more multifamily development, whether it be in old, vacant strip malls, in our downtowns, or beyond.

But Hochul shouldn't forget last year's earlier missteps, when she went too far in trying to override local zoning, without input or support from local civic groups, elected officials and other advocates. Finding the right balance between carrots and sticks, with a strong emphasis on the carrots, is warranted. 

Beyond housing, Hochul has an opportunity to take enormous steps on climate, following through on the state's climate action plan and the $4.2 billion environmental bond act that passed last year. Working through the transition between our dependence on fossil fuels and the future of renewable energy will mean finding new ways to increase energy affordability, continuing efforts to improve water quality and, significantly, coming to a decision on the future of the Long Island Power Authority. Hochul also should invest in and focus on the blue economy, which includes related efforts like offshore wind that will be important to Long Island's future growth.

And as the Island continues to build a life sciences and technology-focused corridor, with significant research opportunities and projects like Midway Crossing, the state's attention, investment and support in economic development, job creation, workforce training and infrastructure can help. 

But such economic expansion only will work if the region's mass transit system makes its comeback, too. The Metropolitan Transportation Authority and the Long Island Rail Road are at a tipping point, as the system's fiscal health hangs in the balance. Their stability is critical to the success of anything else Hochul does.

These efforts won't matter if our region's moms and dads can't join the workforce. That's why affordable child care for the youngest New Yorkers, along with universal pre-K, is so critical. Expanding the state's pool of employees and encouraging women, in particular, to return to the workforce will filter through the rest of the economy. And transforming the state into a place where people have a real path to having both a family and a career would be game-changing. 

Beyond the economic focus, Hochul will have to keep prioritizing public safety while ensuring that progress continues in making the justice system fairer for everyone. That includes the difficult, but critical, goal of addressing the mental health issues of homeless people and others.

The state faces significant challenges. Now it's up to Hochul and her team to meet them.