Nassau budget numbers not adding up

Forget the season of "Ho! Ho! Ho!" For anyone trying to figure out where Nassau County's finances are headed, it's turned into a time of "Huh? Huh? Huh?"

The Nassau Interim Finance Authority, the state board overseeing Nassau's finances, approved a 2012 budget last week by a 5-2 vote, but even those who voted "aye" communicate more hope than certainty.

NIFA members said they approved the budget not because it was good, but because rejecting it would create an immediate cash crunch and a government shutdown. Nassau's finances are in such horrid shape that any meaningful move by NIFA to rein in county borrowing would bounce paychecks and spur chaos.

County Executive Edward Mangano is trying hard to solve the problems, and he's gotten the county's unions to the table. NIFA's biggest contribution thus far has been enacting a wage freeze that superseded raises in union contracts when it declared the budget out of balance.

But the financial realities are staggering. The 2011 deficit will be $80 million, money that must be borrowed for the county to function. Add in other money the county plans to borrow in the next three years for operations, and the total is $450 million. And the possibility that these moves will keep the county solvent, even in the near term, is based on finding $150 million in annual savings from the unions, via layoffs and concessions.

The county legislature approved a deal to save the first $75 million by imposing more than 300 layoffs, mostly among members of the Civil Service Employees Association. The county's other unions will reduce their numbers largely via demotions, unfilled vacancies and retirements.

The CSEA's offer includes a retirement inducement of $1,000 per year served that, if popular, would forestall many of the layoffs. The buyouts would definitely be available for at least 10 days, but that time frame could be extended to 90 days, and CSEA employees could be laid off Dec. 29, then rehired if the buyout period were extended to 90 days, then laid off again if enough people still didn't take the buyout.

The CSEA also says it's close to a deal with the county on the concessions due from all the unions by Feb. 1 that will create the other $75 million in annual savings. But the CSEA says its concessions are contingent on NIFA removing its salary freeze.

One adviser to the county fears it may not be legal to unfreeze the wages while the budget is still unbalanced -- not to mention that it would cause tremendous anger to allow raises for the CSEA but not for the police. And laying off members one year and giving raises to the ones who remain the next would look like the basest sort of betrayal, both against those laid off and the taxpayers they no longer serve.

And these are the negotiations that are going well. County officials say while they are meeting with the police unions every day, the sides are not close enough on terms to seal a deal.

This is not a case of things being so bad you're justified in thinking "at least they can't get any worse." Things are that bad, but they can get a lot worse. And they will if Mangano and NIFA can't make the numbers add up and the unions sign on.