Text and the City

Daily Point

LI Infrastructure Day at Citi Field

Baseball broadcaster Keith Hernandez has a bit of modest but serious traffic-sign advice for those who maintain infrastructure on the East End. He offered it during the second game of Friday’s New York Mets double-header while recalling, in a light-hearted presentation with cell-phone still photos, how he got his car stuck on soft ground earlier in the day.

Hernandez’ anecdote could have made for the kind of civic-meeting testimony you’d see on a public-access channel, though this commentary, early in the third inning on SNY, could carry more clout.

The famous Hamptons denizen said the jammed traffic on Route 27 led him to turn onto a road he’d never used before. "It’s right by East Hampton airport. So I figured I’d take it. It was paved, and all of a sudden it wasn’t, and it was one lane, and I couldn’t turn around. I kept going, and I couldn’t make the hill," he said.

"The sign should have said, ‘Off-road vehicles only.’ You got that, East Hampton, or Wainscott?"

On the broadcast-booth monitor, Hernandez showed a cell phone photo of Elisha Osborn, owner and operator of Hammer Towing and Transportation in Wainscott, who arrived and winched the star’s silver Mercedes out of the muck.

"Traffic was really bad that day," Osborn told The Point on Sunday, identifying the problem location as along Town Line Road. "So what happens is, people punch in (to their map apps) the quickest route. It comes up showing no traffic." He said the stretch in question is "a dirt road that’s never been improved."

Osborn has been a truck guy to the stars before. In a publicized 2015 instance, he pulled Jimmy Fallon’s Range Rover off a beach where it bogged down.

Hernandez’ broadcast teammate Gary Cohen said: "It’s a good thing that there was some cell service where you were because otherwise we might have had to send a search party."

Fellow announcer Ron Darling had a whole different Hamptons take: "Now that you’ve given it publicity there’ll be a 10 million dollar home on the property in like 30 days."

— Dan Janison @danjanison

Talking Point

Polling by text in NYC

During the New York City primary season that ended last week there was a lot of talk about how hard the new ranked choice voting system would be to poll.

But the relatively upstart group Data for Progress is now taking an early victory lap for their level of accuracy among the votes counted so far, particularly in less-covered races like the one for city comptroller and Manhattan district attorney, a non-RCV but crowded race.

Sean McElwee, executive director of the left-leaning polling shop and think tank, said that with late movement in a couple of races, being "pretty consistently in the field" helped the pollster stay on top of things. He also pointed to the group’s system of using voter file information along with SMS messaging as something that "definitely, definitely improved the accuracy."

This text message system--in which voters are sent a link to complete a survey via a web form--is a key and controversial part of Data for Progress’s work. It’s a relatively new method and some polling experts question what kind of sampling you get by reaching people on cell phones and further requiring them to click on an unfamiliar link. But DFP’s lead survey methodologist Johannes Fischer told The Point that issues like the unfamiliar link "seem like a bug at first glance" but can be helpful for polling in primaries, acting as a filter to get "only the most motivated responses."

Texting, in this view, is a way to reach the kinds of "hyper-engaged voters" who vote in primaries. Other modes, like relying on web panels where people might be paid small amounts to answer, could be more valuable for a general election, says Fischer.

"We want to get weirdos," Fischer says.

Regarding the criticism that voter files include lots of people without cell phones, Fischer says that cell phone adoption has increased, and DFP uses a vendor to help match cell phones even with people who don’t have cells linked to voter records.

Methodology aside, some other pollsters agree that Data for Progress’ persistence in the field was a plus.

"This was a very sleepy race and then it started to change pretty significantly as people gained awareness about what was going on," says Bradley Honan, CEO & president of Honan Strategy Group, which polled multiple times in the city primaries.

Of course, we don’t by any means have final results in all the big city races from mayoral on down: preliminary ranked choice results are due tomorrow. Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion which also polled this cycle, cautions against "spiking the football in the endzone" by declaring polling victory before the thousands of absentee ballots are counted.

Fischer said DFP has compared the turnout numbers that have trickled out with their turnout projections and haven’t seen significant differences so far. Still, there is time for more NYC surprises.

— Mark Chiusano @mjchiusano

Pencil Point

Almost canceled

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Final Point

Mel Brooks always steals the show

When state Sen. Todd Kaminsky held a news conference in Mineola Monday morning to kick off his run as the Democratic nominee for Nassau District Attorney Monday morning, it was fairly big doings for both the county’s political scene and the Kaminsky clan.

But on a worldwide basis, his great-uncle’s birthday is probably bigger.

Mel Brooks, legendary comedian and filmmaker and the uncle of Kaminsky’s father, turned 95 today.

On a day when Kaminsky will be making plenty of campaign-related calls, he said calling Uncle Mel will definitely be a priority. Kaminsky says his relationship with Brooks is the usual extended family stuff, holidays and big occasions,

And Brooks will likely make calls for Kaminsky, too, as he famously has before.

"When I see people on the street, when I campaign, the robocalls he did for me, that’s what people want to talk about," Kaminsky said. "Some of them still have one saved on their phones. That robocall featured Brooks promising Kaminsky is "absolutely honest, which is pretty weird for people in my family."

Listen to it here.

The special election, to be held on November’s general election date, came about because Madeline Singas left the DA’s office to become a judge on the New York Court of Appeals. The GOP nominee has not been announced yet, but party chairman Joseph Cairo has told The Point one will be selected soon. Party leaders are choosing the contenders because there is no time before the election for a primary.

— Lane Filler @lanefiller

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