With only a one seat loss for New York, LI House districts unlikely to change dramatically

Daily Point

Redistricting will help Republicans, but not so much in NY

Finally, the difficult process of composing a new congressional map for the entire nation begins its slow germination.

The bottom line for New York as announced Monday: loss of only one seat, versus the two many had anticipated.

One big surprise within that surprise, from the Census technicians during a virtual news conference: New York, a prime blue state, pulled up just shy, 89 people short, of keeping all its 27 districts. Other states that lost just the one seat, despite bracing for more, included California, Illinois, Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania.

And conversely, two key red states didn’t gain as much as many expected. Texas goes up from 36 to 38 seats and Florida goes from 27 to 28 seats, with the buzz having been about more in both states. Also, Arizona did not gain a new tenth seat as some expected.

Remember that in New York, this reapportionment is just a prelude to the new drawing of districts that takes place at the hands of state lawmakers in Albany. And with all three key centers of power occupied by Democrats — the governorship, the Assembly and the Senate — a big question is precisely how Republicans will get squeezed on the congressional map that emerges later this year.

The NY-23 district in western New York is expected to be chopped up and altered given Rep. Tom Reed’s announcement that he won’t seek another term. For all anyone knows right now, the fate of Rep. Claudia Tenney in the neighboring 22nd district could also be affected or reshaped.

In Suffolk, NY-1 Rep. Lee Zeldin announced that he’s running for governor. So at least for now he is expected to vacate that seat. With the district bordered mostly by water, one wonders whether the Democrats could redraw it to their electoral advantage.

For now, the big story is national. Reapportionment is still expected to give Republicans a special boost in their efforts to reclaim a majority in the House. At the moment, Democrats have 218 members and Republicans 212 members, with five seats vacant. Districts now held by Democrats in Texas, where southern-border security and the influx from Mexico loom large, offer the GOP promising terrain.

The national Democratic Party will still be looking to its allies in Albany to keep and win as many seats as possible, given their thin margin in the House.

—Dan Janison @Danjanison

Talking Point

Political fundraisers are back, masks and all

Suffolk GOP candidates and party leaders have at least 10 in-person fundraisers for fall and future races planned in the coming weeks, according to invitations sent out on the party’s email mailing list on Monday.

There’s "A Night of Fine Food and Drink" for incumbent Leg. Kevin McCaffrey at Primi Italian Steakhouse in West Islip on Wednesday, and a campaign kickoff for newcomer Stephanie Bontempi at The Head of the Bay Club in Huntington on Thursday, set to feature special guest former Rep. Pete King.

Some of the invitations feature pandemic-related warnings — "Masks are requested except when dining" at the McCaffrey event, and a May gathering for Brookhaven Town Highway Superintendent Daniel Losquadro in Patchogue notes "capacity limitations."

But the campaign fun appears to be rolling in Suffolk, with themed events like a "May the ‘fourth’ be with you" fundraiser for Brookhaven Town councilman Neil Foley where you can be a "Jedi Sponsor" by shelling out $2,000; or a Cinco de Mayo celebration for Suffolk County Legis. Steve Flotteron in Bay Shore, the invitation for which smartly places a graphic of a sombrero above some text, not Flotteron’s head.

Democrats are fundraising, too: Suffolk Democratic chair Rich Schaffer said Catherine Kent and Jorge Guadron were scheduled to have in-person fundraising in the coming days in their respective bids for Riverhead Town supervisor and Islip Town council. Nassau Democratic Party leader Jay Jacobs said the county party will start fundraisers in early June, outdoors.

As for the Suffolk GOP, party chair Jesse Garcia told The Point that GOP fundraisers in Suffolk have been ongoing since the fall, with in-person capacity limits and other COVID-19 protocols in effect. Restaurants holding the events, he noted, weren’t going to place their liquor licenses in jeopardy by breaking the rules. He said the spring spurt of in-person events comes as restrictions are being eased up, and in-person events can be better for attracting supporters since there’s the opportunity to speak one-on-one with the candidates themselves and others interested in the race.

"Our candidates have to raise money," he said.

—Mark Chiusano @mjchiusano

Pencil Point

Danger!

For more cartoons, visit www.newsday.com/nationalcartoons

Quick Points

• In Texas, most residents who used drive-thru voting and 24-hour voting last year were people of color – and now state Republicans are trying to ban both practices. Sometimes, an action is exactly what it seems to be.
• As bad as things are in India – including more than 300,000 new COVID-19 cases per day and more than 2,000 deaths daily, and vastly overextended crematoriums – here’s what’s worse: Experts say those numbers are an undercount.
• After President Joe Biden declared the killing of 1.5 million Armenians by the Ottoman Empire in the early 20th century to have been genocide, Turkey’s foreign minister expressed his nation’s anger at the designation by saying Turkey "will not be given lessons on our history from anyone." No matter how much Turkey needs to learn those lessons.
• American tourists who are fully vaccinated against COVID-19 will be allowed to visit the European Union this summer. But with vaccinations lagging on the continent, will Americans want to go?
• Last week, the International Olympic Committee announced it would continue its ban on protests by athletes at the Games – apparently oblivious to the fact that announcing such a ban guarantees there will be protests.
• History was made at the Oscars. The top five individual awards went to a white man, a black man, two Asian women and Frances McDormand, who sometimes seems like she’s from another planet.

—Michael Dobie @mwdobie