Betting on the Democratic debates

August 1, 2019

Daily Point

What are the odds?

With the second round of Democratic debates completed this week, the consensus among pundits and on social media is that Sen. Elizabeth Warren is a fantastic debater who won Tuesday over Sen. Bernie Sanders, even though Sanders did no damage to himself because he was exactly himself.

Former Vice President Joe Biden won Wednesday night’s clash largely by his strong opposition to banning private health insurance and his promise to build on the Affordable Care Act. While occasionally flustered, he made no major gaffes. Sen. Kamala Harris seemed off-stride and was probably the biggest disappointment, while Sen. Cory Booker was a polished and upbeat presence.

And what did the betting pools say? About the same, but with the added bonus of one surprising measure of just how outside some of the outsiders are.

On the Predictit site, the shares for the candidate winning the nomination are bought for fractions of $1 and pay $1 each to winners. The big loser was Harris, diving from 24 cents to 16 cents from Tuesday to Thursday. Biden was the big winner, jumping from 23 cents to 27 cents in the same period. Warren lost a penny, down to 22 cents, and Booker was stable at 5 cents.

And just how badly are the least-supported candidates doing as they try to scare up 130,000 contributions and 2 percent polling support to make the next round of debates?

Shares of Hillary Clinton, who swears she is not running, are at 2 cents, which ties her with Amy Klobuchar, Beto O’Rourke, Julian Castro, Steve Bullock and Marianne Williamson.

And it puts her ahead of what we’ll call the penny people, John Delaney, Tom Steyer, Kirsten Gillibrand, John Hickenlooper, Jay Inslee, Michael Bennet, Tim Ryan and Bill de Blasio.

- Lane Filler @lanefiller

Hedging their bets

Speaking of bets, two Long Island STEM types have made some presidential bets this year.

Renaissance Technologies founder James Simons and his wife, Marilyn, each gave $5,600 to Colorado Sen. Michael Bennet and the same sum to Washington Gov. Jay Inslee earlier this year. According to Federal Election Commission filings posted late Wednesday night, they also gave $5,000 each to Mayor Bill de Blasio’s Fairness PAC, one of his various political operations while he was thinking about or pursuing a presidential run.

It’s possible that the Simonses also donated to other presidential contenders recently in filings that haven’t yet filtered into the FEC system, and the sums are chump change considering the couple’s major philanthropy and fortune.

But perhaps there’s a throughline between the three 2020 contenders we’re not seeing. They all have some sort of executive experience? Wealthy New Yorkers tend to at least be familiar with them? Or maybe it’s just the troika’s miniscule polling numbers.

- Mark Chiusano @mjchiusano

Talking Point

Boyle sounds off on fusion voting

Republican State Sen. Phil Boyle might be in the legislative minority now, but he’s been in the news a lot lately.

Mostly, that’s because Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo signed bills Boyle had originally sponsored but was unable to get approved when his party controlled the Senate. This year, Democrats took over the chamber and Boyle’s legislation was passed.

The bills included the boating safety measure Brianna’s Law, a bill to outlaw revenge porn, legislation to help protect call center jobs, and a long-bottled-up bipartisan bill to ban toxic chemicals from children’s products.

“My Republican colleagues were teasing me that it was the Boyle legislative agenda coming up this session,” Boyle told The Point, while also noting that the legislature passed a number of left-leaning bills he did not favor.

Boyle debunked rumors that continue to swirl in political circles that he is not going to run again in 2020. Boyle, who was elected to the Assembly in 1994 and Senate in 2012, had a tough fight against Democrat Lou D’Amaro in 2018 and the speculation has been that life in the minority combined with a possible blue wave in 2020 might make another run less appealing.

“Right now, I do intend to run for reelection, I intend to raise money, all of that,” Boyle said.

The Bay Shore resident said the possibility that a state commission looking at public campaign financing and other election issues might eliminate fusion voting — which allows candidates to be cross-endorsed by other parties — would not impact his thinking.

“Fusion politics wouldn’t play into my decision,” Boyle said. “Even if it’s Republican versus Democrat, the work my office does would help me.”

Boyle said flatly he could win without the Conservative Party line, pointing out his opponent in that situation would not have the Working Families line. But the numbers don’t support his argument.

Strictly on Democratic-Republican lines, Boyle lost to D’Amaro in 2018, 47,294 to 46,143. But Boyle garnered 5,172 votes on the Conservative line, 1,247 on the Independence line and 205 on the Reform line, to dwarf the total of 1,837 votes D’Amaro collected on the Working Families and Women’s Equality lines.

One thing is certain, Boyle said with a laugh: He won’t switch parties and run as a Democrat.

That’s one form of fusion he won’t entertain.

- Michael Dobie @mwdobie

Pencil Point

Chances are...

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Final Point

Love it or list it?

Is the federal government gussying up the Plum Island Lighthouse for a fix-it-and-flip-it style sales advantage, or to make it more of a keeper?

Rep. Lee Zeldin announced Tuesday that $1.5 million from the Department of Homeland Security and the Army Corps of Engineers will go to restore the historic lighthouse, which was built in 1869 and deactivated in 1978 in favor of an electric light on a tower.

The money will go to stabilize the iron work and the door at the top of the lighthouse.

The lighthouse has been listed on the National Register of Historic Places since 2011, and needs other work as well, according to the head of the Southold Town Historic Preservation Commission.

But what’s going to happen to the Island itself? It has hosted the Plum Island Animal Disease Center since 1954, but that’s scheduled to be shut when a new facility opens in Manhattan, Kansas, that is supposed to be fully operational by late 2022. And a federal law passed in 2009 demands the 840-acre island be sold.

But the Town of Southold made that harder by adopting zoning that precludes resort or luxury home development. And Zeldin, a Republican, is fighting for a law to ban the sale, and has been able to pass a bill in the House several years in a row, but the Senate has never acted.

Zeldin said the best chance of finally protecting the island by law would be for Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer to include it in his horse-trading with Majority Leader Mitch McConnell. Then the protection would need the approval of President Donald Trump, who has mused that the island would make for a great golf course.

But Zeldin, who favors preserving part of the island as a park and continuing to use the labs for research, says Trump will sign the bill if he gets it.