On to the next race
And they’re off.
In the 2024 presidential sweepstakes, that is.
Yes, amid a furiously contested 2020 race that just keeps getting more heated day by day, political oddsmakers have turned their gaze to 2024 already.
And the top of the list, according to online sportsbooks BetOnline.ag and SportsBetting.ag, is not too surprising: Democratic Sen. Kamala Harris, former Vice President Joe Biden’s current running mate, is the early favorite at 3/1 odds. She’s followed by the former governor of South Carolina, Republican Nikki Haley, at 6/1, trailed by Biden himself at 7/1 and current Vice President Mike Pence at 8/1.
The intrigue comes after that, with the next four choices all Democrats defeated by Biden in this year’s primaries — Andrew Yang, Bernie Sanders, Pete Buttigieg and Beto O’Rourke.
Of course, New York is well-represented, beginning with Yang. But there’s also unlikely bedfellows Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo (both at 25/1), former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg (33/1), 2016 Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton (50/1), Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (150/1), former first daughter Chelsea Clinton (200/1), and a Trump family quartet – erstwhile resident President Donald Trump (33/1), son Don Jr. and daughter Ivanka (both 100/1), and Ivanka’s husband, Jared Kushner (150/1).
There are fun bets, like Meghan Markle, the American actress who married Prince Harry (100/1), and basketball star LeBron James (150/1).
If you fancy longshots, at the bottom of the list of nearly 80 names, tied at 500/1 with, among others, Ultimate Fighting Championship president Dana White, is Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, no stranger to political combat.
Not into names? The popular PredictIt website, which functions like a stock market with users buying and selling shares of propositions and winning $1 for each share if they’re right, offers a share in any Democrat winning the White House in 2024 at 55 cents compared to 41 cents for any Republican.
As for context, well, you can’t do much better than to look at the opening odds for the 2016 presidential race. In 2012, Sportsbook.ag assigned 200/1 odds to the man who won, then-businessman and reality TV star Donald Trump.
— Michael Dobie @mwdobie
Feast or famine
Some Long Island congressional candidates are raking in and spending big sums this election cycle, according to October quarterly fundraising reports covering July 1 to the end of September.
That includes nearly $2.8 million in quarterly receipts for CD1 Democrat Nancy Goroff, followed by $2.3 million for her opponent, Rep. Lee Zeldin. As usual, that district has featured a bonanza of fundraising, with Zeldin pulling in $7.1 million over the entire cycle, and Goroff raising $5.5 million.
In the closely watched CD2 race to be Pete King’s replacement, Democrat Jackie Gordon continues to hold her fundraising advantage over Republican Andrew Garbarino, $1.8 million for the quarter vs. his $773,000. Overall, her fundraising numbers for the cycle are $3.55 million vs. $1.3 million for Garbarino.
The less competitive races saw less money flow — much less money flow.
Rep. Kathleen Rice in CD4, for example, pulled in $243,000 for the quarter, while her GOP opponent, Douglas Tuman, logged $29,000 — approximately what Zeldin spent on a bus rental ($8,500 to North Fork Express) and an event venue ($19,850 to the Baiting Hollow Club, LLC).
—Mark Chiusano @mjchiusano
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A new learning gap emerges
When Long Island’s schools went to remote learning on March 13, it quickly became apparent that the gap between what the region’s richest districts could offer during the pandemic and the academic programs the lowest-income schools could provide was even larger than in normal times.
And even beyond money, the racial composition of districts is a factor in what they offer, and what families accept.
The resource gap, which exposes the academic and racial divides between most districts, is often even more extreme in kids’ homes than in their schools, so moving classes to those homes meant even more challenges for kids who might not have computers, internet access, a parent who could help, or even just peace and quiet.
Now a study conducted by The Education Trust, a nonprofit focused on education equity, of the state’s school district report cards on COVID-19 has compiled data about distance versus in-person learning this year that paints an ugly picture of the learning gap.
—Lane Filler @lanefiller