A numbers game

Daily Point

Third time the charm?

The size of the tax break developers say they need to make the development of luxury oceanfront housing and retail space on Long Beach’s boardwalk work financially has again shrunk, this time to a mere $52 million over 30 years. That’s still a lot of money, but it’s far less than what was requested by the developer behind the last two attempts.

And there are still plenty of hurdles to the deal Garden-City based developer Engel Burman is seeking, according to Richie Kessel. The Nassau County IDA chair says that while the agency will hold its first public meeting via Zoom at 6:30 p.m. Tuesday to begin considering the deal, a public hearing on any such tax breaks won’t happen until life starts to return to normal.

Engel Burman is looking to build a $369 million project consisting of two 100-unit, nine-story condo buildings, 6,500 square feet of boardwalk-level retail and a 10-story building with 238 apartments. There also would be 1,000 underground parking spaces.

The tax break is only for the apartments, of which 24 would be affordable and already qualify for tax breaks. The retail and condos are not part of the payment in lieu of taxes (PILOT) package.

Engel Burman says the project cannot be done without the breaks.

That’s also what the current owner, iStar, said about its last two attempts to get PILOTs.

In 2015, iStar asked for $129 million in tax breaks to build two 160-foot towers containing 522 oceanfront apartments and 11,000 square feet of retail. It lost that battle after a groundswell of protest from both the public and politicians led the IDA to decline to hear the application.

In 2016, it put the same proposal forward, asking for $109 million in tax breaks; despite the lower ask, the IDA again rejected the application.

In the first two applications, the builders had variances to allow 160-foot towers, 50 feet over code, but the variances have since expired.

Kessel says the IDA will hold what he promises will be a well-publicized night meeting, presided over by his board, when the public can have its say, before anything is approved.

That will be the time to find out whether the new design, local developer Engel Burman (iStar is an NYC company) public outreach and a far smaller ask are enough to mollify the public and let the deal move forward.

—Lane Filler @lanefiller

Talking Point

Cuomo for president?

A Rasmussen poll released Monday of 1,000 likely voters conducted April 2-5 finds Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo in a dead heat with former Vice President Joe Biden as top choice for the Democratic presidential nomination, with each getting 38% support.

It’s a nod that’s most notable because Cuomo, who says he chose not to run for the 2020 nomination because of loyalty to Biden, continues to repeat that he is not running despite his current popularity. 

A Cuomo ascendance is unlikely, and any scenario in which convention delegates turn to him is still far-fetched. Still, poll respondents are probably paying less attention to what’s actually possible than, say, gamblers. So, what do they say?

On betting market site PredictIt, Biden is still the huge favorite to win the nomination, but Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, the frontrunner to win the thing two months ago, is now fourth choice. 

Cuomo is second.

And Hillary Clinton is third.

The markets are set up so that once the contest is decided winning bets are worth $1 a share. Biden’s current price is 81 cents, down from a high of 90 cents on March 19. Cuomo is selling at 8 cents a share, having reentered active trading this month at 1 cent on March 9.

Despite her protestation of non-interest, Clinton always has a small segment betting she’ll find her way in, and has been steady around a nickel a share, where she sits now.

And Sanders, who hit a colossal high of 65 cents a share on Feb. 23, is trading for 4 cents a pop now. And he is running.

—Lane Filler @lanefiller

Pencil Point

America's heroes

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Quick Points

• After President Donald Trump has boasted for weeks that he “stopped China” from flying to the United States during the coronavirus outbreak, it turns out nearly 40,000 people have arrived in the United States on direct flights from China since Trump issued his Feb. 2 ban. Overall, more than 430,000 arrived here after the outbreak was known to be underway in Wuhan. Perhaps it’s time to admit that the boast is toast.
• President Donald Trump says professional sports will return “sooner rather than later.” If you were placing a bet on that action, you know you’d take “later.”
• President Donald Trump supported the Pentagon’s decision to relieve Capt. Brett Crozier of his command of the U.S.S. Theodore Roosevelt, saying a letter Crozier wrote begging for help for members of his crew stricken with coronavirus was “all over the place.” Now that’s something Trump knows plenty about.
• One difference between President Donald Trump and Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte, whose countries have struggled to battle COVID-19: Conte admits that “our response has not been perfect.”
• One of President Donald Trump’s advisers pushing the efficacy of hydroxychloroquine is his personal attorney, Rudy Giuliani. Yes, the same Giuliani whose Twitter account was briefly locked for promoting misinformation about COVID-19.
• When reporters asked infectious disease expert Dr. Anthony Fauci about the efficacy of hydroxychloroquine to treat the coronavirus, President Donald Trump interrupted to say, “Do you know how many times he’s answered that question? Maybe 15. You don’t have to ask that question.” Actually, someone does until Trump listens to the answer.
• West Virginia Republican Sen. Shelley Moore Capito said about President Donald Trump's coronavirus news conferences that "sometimes I think it goes off the rails a little bit, but you know that's the way the president conducts business." Some Americans were hoping that in a crisis the president would stay on the rails for once.
• In one of the cruel ironies of this time of coronavirus, the musician Bill Withers died. Ain’t no sunshine now that he’s gone, just when we all need someone to lean on. RIP, Mr. Withers, may you find an eternal lovely day ahead.

—Michael Dobie @mwdobie