Path to the 2016 GOP nomination runs through New York
Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump during a campaign stop in Myrtle Beach, S.C., on Feb. 19, 2016. Credit: AP
To get to the 1,237 delegates needed to win the Republican presidential nomination on the first ballot, Donald Trump is likely going to have to woo his home state of New York hard for the April 19 primary -- from Montauk to Niagara Falls and from Salamanca to Saranac Lake.
Before that, he faces contests for delegates in Arizona on Tuesday (58, winner-take-all) and Utah (40, proportional,) and lest we forget, American Samoa's nine unbound delegates. Then Wisconsin hosts a winner-take-all fight for 42 delegates on April 5.
Trump has amassed 661 delegates. But even if he sweeps those four, he'll come home still needing 427 more to clinch. New York has 95, but they're tough to get because 81 are divided. Each of the state's 27 congressional districts awards three. A candidate who gets 50 percent of primary votes in a district gets all three. If no one gets 50 percent, delegates are split and the top finisher gets two and the next candidate gets one, if he finishes over 20 percent. If not, winner takes all. The other 14 delegates are proportional based on the statewide vote.
In some of these districts, Trump will battle over a small number of eligible voters. Rep. Charlie Rangel's Manhattan-Bronx district, for instance, has about 5 percent GOP registration, meaning only about 20,000 voters are eligible to weigh in on Republicans. But Trump will likely have to work every region, particularly if the "stop Trump" forces come out to play.
New York also will serve as a momentum prover and bellwether for the following week, when five Northeastern states award 172 delegates.
It hasn't happened in recent memory, but this year the math is undeniable. The path to the Republican nomination goes through our very Democratic state.
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