For Republicans, a road map to take over the House

Daily Point

Beyond NY, partisan House maps skew in favor of GOP

New York’s court-managed redistricting process has all but ended — creating new party strains and voter confusion. Now it’s time for political observers to assess how the battle for reasonable district maps has gone nationally and whom it may help in the fall.

As candidates scrambled and changed plans to adjust to the new lines this week, David Wasserman, a leading wonk at the nationally-oriented Cook Political Report, issued an interesting type of scoreboard on social media, suggesting red states will gain an edge for the House by not reining in their own GOP gerrymandering.

Specifically, by Wasserman’s account, New York is now among 13 states that went for Joe Biden in 2020 where courts or bipartisan commissions ended up drawing the lines this year, counteracting any gerrymanders by the partisan in-crowd.

Wasserman counts only four pro-Donald Trump states in that category.

Importantly, the blue anti-gerrymander states have big populations with many House members, such as New York, California (with a more independent process), Pennsylvania and Michigan, meaning more seats were drawn with restraints on partisan manipulation.

Looked at the other way, Wasserman counts seven Biden states successfully gerrymandered by Democrats, including Illinois — and 14 Trump states where the drawing process was manipulated by Republicans, including Florida, Georgia, South Carolina and Missouri.

The possibility that these putatively fairer New York maps will work nationally against Democrats was clear from the start. By the Cook Report’s assessment, New York comes out with 15 safe Democratic seats, 5 safe Republican seats, and six toss-ups. When the Democratic-dominated state Legislature drew the first set of maps, they appeared to give the Democrats a 22-4 advantage.

The current divide is 19-8 and the state loses one seat this decade. If Democrats fail to keep their 19 in New York, the margin becomes significant. Their national House majority is only 222-212. A slip in any state can go a long way to Speaker Nancy Pelosi losing the majority.

That’s why top state Democrats, in defending their aggressive redistricting efforts, said they didn’t want to “unilaterally disarm” against red-state gerrymandering. That was implicit as Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul talked in retrospect Tuesday to reporters about the redistricting process.

"The process played out the way the law was written," she said. "Do we need to do this differently? Yes, we do. Every 10 years it's always a mess. I know quite a bit about redistricting. I lost my seat in Congress." That was in the last redistricting, in 2012 — after she’d served a single term.

— Dan Janison @Danjanison

Talking Point

Island still has enough natural gas

In 2019, as National Grid was trying for the second time to get approval for construction of a new 24-mile gas pipeline in New York’s harbor, the company declared that without the infrastructure to bring in more gas it would be forced to declare a moratorium on new hookups for big projects like the Belmont Park redevelopment and the planned Amazon HQ2 in Long Island City that never came to fruition.

The application for a crucial water quality permit had been rejected the year before, and Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo’s administration was again balking at allowing another fossil fuel infrastructure project as he pushed hard deadlines for the state’s green future.

By May 2019, a National Grid spokesperson told Newsday it had “already notified some large customers that have requested service that we will not be able to provide firm service” if the new pipeline was not completed.

But Cuomo, rather than buckling, got angry. And then angrier. And in November he sent the company a missive that led with: “This letter is to give you 14 days notice of my intention to have New York State move to revoke National Grid’s certificate to operate its downstate gas franchise.”

Within two weeks, National Grid had agreed to end its moratorium on new gas hookups, pay $36 million in penalties, and submit “a long-term options analysis” exploring how it could meet demand.

Tuesday, when Rudy Wynter, president of National Grid’s New York operation, met with the editorial board, he was asked how the potential shortage is playing out three years later.

Wynter said that on the demand side the company had launched large efficiency initiatives for both residential and commercial customers to help reduce usage. And on the supply side the company had located several terminals where liquid natural gas could be trucked in to be injected into the system if necessary.

Wynter also said a key component of the plan is enhancements to existing facilities. Increases in capacity to the existing Iroquois pipeline will help, as well as adding two “combustion vaporizers” in Greenpoint that can increase gas capacity. The Greenpoint proposal, though, has faced community opposition and is held up in the state Department of Environmental Conservation's permitting process.

Are these measures enough? Wynter gave a qualified yes, saying that if all the components of the plan, and particularly the Greenpoint permitting, move forward, there will be gas for all.

— Lane Filler @lanefiller

Pencil Point

Running low on juice

For more cartoons, visit www.newsday.com/nationalcartoons

Final Point

East Side Access powering up

After decades of delays and cost overruns, it may seem unbelievable that the $11.1 billion East Side Access connection to Grand Central Terminal is only about seven months away from becoming a reality.

The Long Island Rail Road is working to finalize schedules and service plans, with the hope of soon beginning a “comprehensive” customer outreach effort, Metropolitan Transportation Authority officials said during the agency’s capital program committee meeting Monday.

“We’re just putting finishing touches on the service plan,” said Robert Free, the LIRR’s senior vice president of operations.

As East Side Access nears completion, the track is in place, the power is on, signals are working, and ventilation systems are being tested. But thousands of devices and dozens of other systems, from fire and safety to building management, require testing, according to Rob Troup, who has headed the project for the last several years.

There’s also training that must be done. Federal mandates require “physical characteristics training,” so more than 2,000 LIRR employees can familiarize themselves with the new infrastructure, tracks and terminal. They’ll operate trains and walk through the territory to learn the new switches and signals and curves in the tracks, and more, Free said. Emergency drills and simulations also will be conducted.

What’s more, the LIRR is hiring “on a massive scale,” for a variety of jobs, holding six open houses this year. More than 300 people have been hired year to date, Free said.

“An enormous effort is taking place,” Free added.

These preparations are happening simultaneously with the completion of construction. “It is a ton of work,” MTA chief executive Janno Lieber said. “This project is justifiably maligned because of some of its history. But the last couple of years … this project has really started to turn things around.”

In response to a request from one board member, Lieber said the MTA would undertake a “major after-action study” after East Side Access has been completed.

“Let’s learn everything we can from this,” Lieber said, noting that the MTA already has made changes in how it handles projects, contracts, agreements with partners like Amtrak, and more.

— Randi F. Marshall @RandiMarshall