Getting shovel-ready in CD3

Daily Point

Two big factors in Tuesday’s special: Mother Nature and the 'blanks'

A total of 57,730 Nassau County residents voted during the nine days of early voting in the 3rd Congressional District race to replace George Santos. Of those, 42%, or 24,196, were registered Democrats; 34%, or 19,876, were registered Republicans; and 20%, or 11,468, were “blanks” — those not registered with a political party. Another 1,356 voters were affiliated with the Independence Party, and 637 were registered as Conservatives.

That’s a slightly higher turnout of early voters than in 2022, when 53,800 voters cast their ballots before Election Day — 40% of whom were Democrats and 36% Republicans.

Meanwhile, absentee ballots during the current special election have seen a breakdown that trends a bit bluer. Of the 11,846 absentee ballots that were returned by the latest count, 6,190, or 52%, were from Democrats; 3,247, or 27.4%, were from Republicans; and 2,040, or 17.2%, were from blanks.

In Queens, 9,064 CD3 residents voted early. Although the latest breakdown by party wasn’t available, those numbers had favored Democrats as of late last week.

In the waning hours before a surprise snowy Election Day, the final get-out-the-vote push is a strong one.

On Monday, Democratic Party representatives were calling absentee voters who had sought — but not returned — a ballot. So far, officials said, in Nassau County, 65% of Democratic absentee ballots and 62% of Republican absentee ballots had been returned. In Queens, just 58% of Democratic absentee ballots had been returned as of Monday.

“Every indicator I am seeing is positive, but it doesn’t mean we will win,” said Nassau Democratic chairman Jay Jacobs.

Republicans, meanwhile, were focusing on GOTV, especially among the blanks, which in recent years have tended to vote Republican. Phone calls and video text messages featuring Oyster Bay Town Supervisor Joe Saladino were sent to voters not registered with a particular party, asking them to vote for Pilip. Flyers written in Mandarin with English translations that advertised Pilip’s strengths and emphasized key issues like the migrant crisis were being distributed at Great Neck shops, even at Glatt Kosher supermarkets, where many Chinese residents in the area tend to shop, observers said. The flyer, which said it was paid for by “NY Patriotic Americans,” featured claims such as “Illegal migrants live in 4-star hotels, enjoy free insurance, while taxpayers can’t afford health insurance” and “If Suozzi won, more migrants will beat cops, enjoy welfare.”

“For the safety & future, Vote for Rep. Mazi to save America,” the flyer concluded.

Suozzi, too, has focused on Chinese voters, spending part of his Saturday at Flushing’s Lunar New Year parade and other stops in Queens.

The Queens portion of the district, which accounts for 25% of the vote, remains a significant unknown. It is, Jacobs said, “underperforming,” leading Rep. Greg Meeks to work on it on social media and beyond. The Democrats’ goal is for 20% turnout in Queens — but the early and absentee votes add up to just over 13%. The total number of early voters in Queens stood at 9,064, according to the New York City Board of Elections.

Absentee ballots must be postmarked by Tuesday for them to count. Polls are open Tuesday from 6 a.m. to 9 p.m. When polls close, the numbers posted will be the early-vote results and absentee ballots received by Monday. Any absentee ballots received Tuesday or later will be opened after Election Day.

The biggest question mark is the snow. The weather may throw some old assumptions out the window — like the notion that Democrats vote after work. If schools are closed, and people work from home, voting patterns may change.

The snow led some Democrats to worry about what the priority of public workers will be on Election Day. Nassau County Legislature Minority Leader Delia DeRiggi-Whitton sent a warning letter to County Executive Bruce Blakeman and Town Supervisors Joseph Saladino, Don Clavin and Jennifer DeSena — all Republicans.

“It would be an affront to the democratic process and taxpayers alike for County employees to be directed to prioritize 'volunteering' for a favored candidate in Tuesday’s special election ahead of fulfilling essential municipal work of keeping roads passable and preserving our safety and quality of life,” DeRiggi-Whitton wrote to Blakeman.

The anticipation about the weather prompted some Democrats to joke that GOP town workers might gerrymander their snow removal efforts.

“My worry is not how quickly they’ll remove the snow,” one Democratic operative joked. “My concern is they’ll take the snow they remove from Republican neighborhoods and dump it on the streets of Port Washington, Jericho and Syosset. Those communities are going to be snowed in for at least a couple of days.”

— Randi F. Marshall randi.marshall@newsday.com and Rita Ciolli rita.ciolli@newsday.com

Talking Point

Names floated to succeed Thiele

After nearly three decades in office, Fred Thiele has announced that he won’t seek reelection to the state Assembly. Now 70, Thiele has been a Republican, an Independence Party member, and then an enrolled Democrat. He’s something of an institution on Suffolk County’s East End, with influence and knowledge of the region’s environmental and energy infrastructure and problems.

Contacted on Monday, Jay Schneiderman, who was Southampton Town supervisor until this year, said he would “look into” running to succeed Thiele but that for now, “it’s time to talk about Fred and the tremendous job he’s done. It’s a tough act to follow.”

Democrat Schneiderman might not be alone if he pursues the nomination. Another local political figure, Southampton Town Board member Tommy John Schiavoni, was mentioned to The Point as a likely candidate for the 1st Assembly District comprising the eastern portion of the county.

AD1 runs from Mattituck to Orient on the North Fork and from Westhampton Beach to Montauk to the south. The district has 34,075 Democrats, 26,057 Republicans and 1,530 Conservatives enrolled. While the Long Island Assembly delegation is mostly Republican, the Assembly in Albany is overwhelmingly Democratic, which is why Thiele has committee clout at the Capitol.

Jesse Garcia, chairman of the Suffolk County Republican Committee, said he wished Thiele a “wonderful retirement.” That said, Garcia added his organization has been preparing for the possibility of the seat coming open in the fall and that East End party leaders are reviewing “a number of candidates” whom he declined to identify. The party will convene Feb. 21 when a slate is expected to be announced.

— Dan Janison dan.janison@newsday.com

Pencil Point

Memorable gaffes

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Final Point

Downward trend

• Now that Long Islanders are aware that enrollment at the region’s public schools is down by an average of 7% and in some places by double-digit percentages, upcoming school budget hearings are going to be interesting as taxpayers ask administrators: Why do budgets keep going up?
• Amid debate over the foreign aid bill, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell talked about “idle work for idle hands” and said “it has no place in the United States Senate.” Glad he cleared that up.
• Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s Super Bowl ad for his third-party presidential campaign ripping off the famous 1960 campaign ad for his uncle, JFK, was eye-popping — but not as eye-popping as the fact that the super PAC supporting him spent $7 million for the spot.
• Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley says opponent Donald Trump’s remarks about her husband being missing from her campaign (he is deployed as a member of the Army National Guard in Africa) are insulting to military families. It’s actually more of a case of gaslighting from someone who seems to be bothered by the absence of his own spouse from the campaign.
• He was not an athlete himself but had a profound impact on athletics as head of America’s first sports drug-testing lab, specializing in finding ways to discover and test for the most complicated and undetectable performance-enhancing drugs. RIP, Don Catlin.

— Michael Dobie michael.dobie@newsday.com

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