Hochul's 'dense' housing plan

Daily Point

Hochul housing-plan critics look to density numbers

Critics of Gov. Kathy Hochul’s housing development plan pending in Albany have begun parsing and discussing population numbers in a way intended to dramatize how the proposal could increase the density of some Long Island areas.

State Department of Health figures from 2020 show that the state has an average population density of 410.34 people per square mile. In Nassau, it’s 4,749 per square mile — already the highest for any county outside New York City. Westchester is second-highest with 2,242.

For the city’s five boroughs, of course, the density is much greater, at a total 27,469 people per square mile.

The Hochul plan calls for suburbs within 15 miles of the city’s border to allow an aggregate density of at least 50 housing units per acre within a half-mile of train stations.

One amateur wonk who declined to be identified shared this back-of-the-envelope pitch with The Point: “There are 640 acres in a square mile. Let’s figure very conservatively that only one person occupies each unit — though it would really be more. At 50 units per acre, that would work out to 32,000 people per square mile. Look at the number for New York City — they’ve got a population of only 27,469 per square mile.”

To be sure, some parts of the city have greater density than either the city average or the possible new zones in Nassau County. In Brooklyn, the population is 36,596 per square mile. That’s 33,224 in the Bronx, and the state’s highest, 71,151, in Manhattan. Queens, however, is 20,472, and Staten Island, 8,263. Densities, of course, vary by community and block as well as by county.

The proposed transit-oriented development rules also would affect communities within 30 miles of the city’s border, meaning parts of Suffolk County. In that so-called Tier 2, the zoning would be 30 units per acre, or more than 19,200 people per square mile. As of 2020, by contrast, the countywide population density for Suffolk was 1,618 per square mile.

The bottom line is that if Hochul’s TOD plan came to full fruition, communities surrounding Long Island Rail Road stations could become significantly more dense. The comparative numbers might sound alarming in the places affected — which politically would be the point, as legislators who are due to decide the budget examine and circulate them.

— Dan Janison @Danjanison

Talking Point

Housing campaign takes to social media

Gov. Kathy Hochul is seeking help from New Yorkers who support her New York Housing Compact.

In an email to supporters, Hochul emphasized the need for more housing, saying it would “make life easier and more affordable for New Yorkers.”

The email included a link to more information about Hochul’s housing plan, which, she has said, is supposed to create 800,000 new units of housing over the next decade.

But it also emphasized ways for New Yorkers to get involved, including a petition for supporters to sign and ways to voice support on social media.

“I support the #NYHousingCompact — @GovKathyHochul’s bold strategy to tackle the housing crisis head on and strengthen our communities,” the generated Twitter post said.

A quick glance through posts with the hashtag showed a mix of results. Some posted the ready-made support language. Others, however, used the #NYHousingCompact hashtag, and even some of Hochul’s language, to voice their displeasure.

“I do not support the #NYHousingCompact- @GovKathyHochul’s horrible strategy to worsen the housing crisis and destroy our communities,” one person wrote on Twitter.

— Randi F. Marshall @RandiMarshall

Pencil Point

Not so fast

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Final Point

When one word Is key

If lawmakers and other New Yorkers are to believe the latest survey from Data for Progress, a progressive think tank, voters across New York State — including on Long Island — support Gov. Kathy Hochul’s proposed Housing Compact.

Until they read the actual question.

“Would you support or oppose legislation which promotes transit-oriented development around commuter rail stops in New York State?” the poll asks.

Data for Progress found that 67% of likely voters statewide and 66% of Long Island likely voters would either “support” or “strongly support” such legislation. The group was quick to share its data on social media, and then Hochul shared it on Twitter, too, arguing that it showed “New Yorkers agree” with her.

The problem is in the question itself.

Hochul’s budget legislation doesn’t “promote” TOD around train stations. It requires towns and villages to change their zoning around such train stops to accommodate specific levels of density, depending on how far away from the New York City line they are. One word could make a world of difference.

— Randi F. Marshall @RandiMarshall