Shadow boxing, Gillibrand style

Daily Point

Anatomy of a Gillibrand rumor

The chance that former Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo challenges Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand in a primary next year appears to be somewhere between slim and none, sources on different sides of the matter tell The Point. But this speculative scenario from Gillibrand herself, in a conversation with potential fundraisers, has made the rounds and may be, as idle rumors go, a win-win for the two Democrats.

Those with Cuomo leanings say there’s nothing to it. But having the potential for such a challenge on the lips of political observers gives Gillibrand a hypothetical foil against whom she could appear to be fighting the good fight, someone whom players in the state party effectively bounced from power in 2021. The sexual harassment allegations against Cuomo, over which she was among those who called for his resignation, make him a fitting foe for a senator who’s made such issues a calling card since being appointed to the seat in 2009 and winning three subsequent elections.

The possible upside for Cuomo of this foggy speculation is all the new mention of how he has access to millions in campaign funds. It keeps his podcasts and interviews with conservative radio outlets such as WABC, owned by billionaire John Catsimatidis, topical and sometimes viral. Relevance would be a plus. His future remains a topic of interest.

Gillibrand’s preemptive Cuomo mention is something of an echo of January when former GOP Rep. Lee Zeldin began needling Gillibrand from afar. “Our potential Republican opponent, Lee Zeldin, just attacked Kirsten Gillibrand on Twitter,” she wrote in an email to supporters. “As we gear up for the tough reelection fight ahead, we know this is only the beginning.” Zeldin hasn’t announced any intention to seek office but has since called Gillibrand “one of the laziest, most forgettable unaccomplished senators in the country.” His future, too, remains a topic of interest.

Back in January, the speculation focused on the prospect of progressive Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez eyeing a challenge for the junior New York seat, occupied by a woman since 2001 when Hillary Clinton succeeded Daniel P. Moynihan. But even a Gillibrand non-fan with a decadeslong experience in New York politics told The Point such a primary fight still looks unlikely.

“There is no organized opposition to her,” the source said. “People are zeroing in on Gillibrand’s alleged lack of strength. But inertia is a strength. AOC looked like the challenger a couple of months ago but not now.”

It’s all talk until it isn’t.

— Dan Janison @Danjanison

Pencil Point

Biden's luck

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Final Point

East End housing market could be cooling

The East End’s red-hot, pandemic-fueled real estate market finally might be cooling down, if the region’s Community Preservation Fund is any indication.

The program, fueled by a 2% tax on East End real estate sales and used for land preservation and water quality projects, produced $172.63 million in 2022, an 18% drop from 2021. And even more recently, revenue from January 2023 was $8.36 million, a 66.1% plunge from the same month in 2022.

As always, though, these figures must be viewed through the prism of relativity. The revenue from 2021 was the highest in the program’s 24-year history; 2022 was the second-highest. And January 2022 was the CPF’s highest-grossing month ever, positioning this past January squarely in the recent trend of returning to pre-pandemic norms.

“The market is still finding its equilibrium,” Sag Harbor Assemb. Fred Thiele, the CPF’s co-architect, told The Point. “It swung that one way during the pandemic, now it’s swinging back. I still think there’s some correction to happen.”

Thiele said local real estate agents are telling him that the continuing shortage of inventory is starting to ease a little “but that’s going to take some time.”

The numbers, Thiele said, are buttressed by anecdotal impressions — like more of a traditional drop-off of residents after summer.

“Suffice it to say this felt like a real fall,” Thiele said. “There was a definite demarcation point between the summer and the fall. There’s still employee shortages out here, the housing issue and the lack of employees — those continue to be concerns in the aftermath of the pandemic. The flood of people that came out from the city of New York, would they stay or would they go back, I think it’s somewhere in the middle. There’s still a lot of people who are working remotely.”

That was a trend that predated the pandemic, Thiele said, enabled by technology that lets people work from home. But is this expanded population a new normal?

“I’m not sure what normal is,” Thiele said. “But this is a lot closer to normal than usual.”

— Michael Dobie @mwdobie