What Pataki's win could say about 2024

Daily Point

Vibe shifts

Before and after the election this year, Republicans compared Lee Zeldin’s run with that of George Pataki in 1994, when the state senator from Peekskill knocked out incumbent Gov. Mario Cuomo and brought the GOP back to statewide power.

Zeldin didn’t get the win over Gov. Kathy Hochul this time, but he came closer than any in his party since Pataki. And on Long Island, he beat Hochul by approximately 150,000 votes, besting the 115,000 Pataki-Cuomo differential in Nassau and Suffolk.

So the question becomes: How much will that red version of Long Island hold in 2024, the next federal cycle?

A comparison with 1994 shows that even big wins can shift back, quickly. Despite the dominant Pataki win in the region just two years before, President Bill Clinton beat Kansas Sen. Bob Dole in 1996 by nearly 190,000 votes on Long Island, easily taking both counties.

Of course, Clinton was riding the waves of incumbency in that race, among other factors that help explain the big shift. But Long Island was home to a significant about-face on the congressional level, too. The 1994 cycle saw the GOP pick up 54 seats in a nationwide rout that included four wins for Long Island Republicans: Michael Forbes, Dan Frisa, Pete King, and Rick Lazio.

Forbes, King, and Lazio all kept their seats in 1996, but Frisa lost to Carolyn McCarthy, whose husband had been killed by a gunman on the Long Island Rail Road.

Frisa coasted to victory by close to 13 percentage points in 1994, but then lost to McCarthy by almost 20 percentage points two years later — a history that his political descendants in Nassau have surely noted.

— Mark Chiusano @mjchiusano

Talking Point

Another race still undecided

Some might think the Senate race in Georgia, which is heading to a runoff next month, is the last race in the country still to be decided.

Think again.

The count in the Great Neck library trustee election, held on Oct. 31, is still not finished.

After objecting to dozens of ballots, two candidates in the race chose to file a lawsuit on Nov. 7, putting a stop to the counting. But late last week, those candidates agreed to withdraw their legal challenge, and the counting was slated to resume Monday.

The raucous election saw a far higher turnout than usual as culture wars and other issues, such as another ongoing lawsuit regarding how the board handled prior library board vacancies, took center stage. But now it faces a new challenge: COVID-19. The Point has learned that an election inspector was exposed to COVID and has to quarantine — again postponing any more counting.

More than 3,400 votes were cast in the Great Neck election and before the halt, the count was very tight in every race. Challenger Jessica Hughes was winning against incumbent Liman Mimi Hu by just 28 votes, but Hughes’ running mate, Christina Rusu, was losing to Rory Lancman by just 22 votes. In the third race, for a nominating committee seat, the difference between the two candidates — Sara Rivka-Khodadadian and Kim Schader — was just 18 votes.

The count is expected to begin again next Monday.

— Randi F. Marshall @RandiMarshall

Pencil Point

Time to focus

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Final Point

Words and actions

• President Joe Biden told the climate change conference in Egypt that the U.S. wanted to lead the world in fighting global warming just before the U.S. resumed its role as chief obstacle to an agreement on rich countries creating a fund for reparations for poor countries suffering climate damages. Doesn’t being a leader means embracing action, not avoiding it?
• In the struggle to create a reparations fund, China fought not to have to pay into it by citing its U.N. classification as a “developing” nation. If you’re thinking that’s absurd because China is the world’s biggest emitter of greenhouse gases and its second-biggest economy, you’re right.
• In a fierce runoff Senate election with Democratic incumbent Raphael Warnock, Republican Herschel Walker told a Georgia rally crowd, “A werewolf can kill a vampire, did you know that?” It wasn’t clear which man was which monster, or whether Walker even intended his remark to be a metaphor.
• On the eve of the World Cup, after host Qatar did an about-face and banned beer sales at stadiums, soccer governing body president Gianni Infantino blasted critics as “hypocrites” and insisted FIFA was part of the decision-making, saying, “I feel 200% in control of this World Cup.” Speaking of hypocrisy.
• Fresh off his commitment to fairness, Elon Musk polled Twitter users on whether Donald Trump should be restored to the site and “yes” won with 51.2% of the vote. Which says a lot more about Musk than about Trump.
• Iran says it is neutral in the war in Ukraine but gave Russia more than 400 drones to attack Ukraine and now has agreed to help Russia build its own drones. Actions speak louder than words.
• Accused of sexual abuse and having admitted to years of covering up for predatory priests, 84-year-old retired Albany bishop Howard Hubbard asked Pope Francis to remove him from the priesthood, which would relieve Hubbard of his celibacy obligations. A little late for that, isn’t it?

— Michael Dobie @mwdobie