Suozzi's strategy weathered the storm

Daily Point

Nassau Dems take a victory turn

Did Tuesday’s snowstorm make a difference in the outcome of the special election in the 3rd Congressional District where Democrat Tom Suozzi beat Republican Mazi Melesa Pilip by about eight percentage points?

While some political analysts contend the lower turnout because of the weather might have shaved a point or two off Suozzi’s victory margin, it didn’t make a difference in the outcome.

“The weather had the same impact on the Republicans as the Democrats,” said Nassau County Democratic chairman Jay Jacobs on Wednesday, clearly enjoying his party’s success after years of it being trashed in comparisons to the county’s Republican machine.

“Political leaders control a lot but only God controls the weather,” he said, praising Democrats’ strategy of maximizing the state’s early voting system and aggressive use of absentee ballots. When the first returns were posted Monday night, Suozzi had 57% of the vote as a result of the intense effort leading up to Election Day, an advantage that Tuesday’s turnout was not able to overtake.

“You didn’t need to be a meteorologist to think there could be a blizzard in February,” Jacobs said. The odd timing of the vote was a result of George Santos’ expulsion from Congress on Dec. 1 and the state’s specific timetable for holding a vote to fill the vacancy.

Jacobs said that when Democratic number crunchers saw turnout ebbing by late afternoon in the New York City portion of the district, he called Rep. Greg Meeks, the Queens County chairman, to pump up the turnout effort. Between 6:30 p.m. and 7:30 p.m., there were 1,330 votes cast in Queens where the registration favors Democrats.

In Nassau, the final hours saw more GOP votes come in but the party couldn’t catch up. There were 70,000 early votes with absentees adding another 10,000. Registered Democrats were 46% of that combined banked vote. That meant Nassau GOP chairman Joseph Cairo needed same-day turnout in Nassau to be about 100,000 to offset that advantage, an effort that was unachievable in a snowstorm. Tuesday’s turnout approached 89,000.

Overall, the total vote in the special election was about 170,000 compared with 276,000 in 2022 when George Santos defeated Robert Zimmerman.

Suozzi won his ticket back to Washington by sweeping 51% of the unaffiliated voters, according to the Democrats' model. Registered Democrats cast 39% of the vote compared with 36% from Republicans and Conservatives. Votes cast by those who have no expressed party preference were 24%.

“It is not possible to get 54% of the vote without having pulled in some Republicans and a majority of the independents,” said Jacobs. He extrapolated from the results that Suozzi captured about 51% of that pool. In 2022, Zimmerman only got 46% of that vote.

With the lower Election Day turnout compared with two years ago, GOP chairman Joseph Cairo would have needed to harvest a much higher percentage of the independents.

Jacobs estimated that Suozzi picked up 10% of the Republican vote while some Democrats turned to Pilip, especially in the conservative Orthodox Jewish community in Great Neck.

Jacobs said fears that the traditional vote from the party’s reliable more liberal Jewish voters would be eroded because of a backlash against Democrats due to some affiliated groups protesting the bombings in Gaza did not materialize. “Mazi was a uniquely weak candidate for several reasons,” said Jacobs, but he said her compelling personal story of having emigrated to Israel where she then served in its military did improve her chance of success. “The GOP’s thinking after Oct. 7 that she could steal away Jewish Democrats — that didn’t happen,” he said.

— Rita Ciolli rita.ciolli@newsday.com

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Final Point

'Who dis?'

As George Santos watched the special election for his former congressional seat unfold, he had a lot to say — especially after Tom Suozzi, the Democrat he lost to in 2020, won handily.

Tuesday night, Santos took to X, where he blasted Long Island’s GOP representatives Anthony D’Esposito and Nick LaLota “for losing a seat in the house today.” In a series of posts, Santos criticized the Republican Party, called for the resignation of Nassau GOP chairman Joe Cairo, and called his former Republican colleagues “the most effective democratic operatives in the nation.”

Santos, who is slated to go on trial in September on a 23-count federal indictment, went after the Republicans via text. In a blistering message, Santos seemed to tie his former colleagues' political future to his own expulsion.

“I hope you guys are happy with this dismal performance and the 10 million dollars your futile … [expletive] cost the party,” Santos wrote. “I look very much forward to seeing most of you lose due to your absolute hate filled campaign to remove me from Congress arbitrarily.”

But Santos didn’t stop there. On Wednesday, he separately texted Cairo and Nassau GOP spokesman Mike Deery, whose name Santos spells “Deirie” in his contacts.

“The price one pays with arrogance is defeat,” Santos texted. “Y’all made an entire year of my life hell, pulling the strings and creating buzz words for your stooges to parrot on the media.”

The lengthy text emphasizes Santos’ belief that Nassau’s “MAGA base” has walked away from the Republican Party leaders.

“’Chairman Cairo’, the gig is up and I look forward to seeing your continued collapse this fall when you lose Anthony’s seat and beyond in the State senate and assembly.”

Santos signs the text “Candidly, George Santos.”

In a text to The Point after sharing a screenshot of that text with the party leaders, Santos said he had not yet received a response.

Santos continued his social media blitz throughout the day Wednesday, attributing Republican Mazi Melesa Pilip’s loss to how the Republican Party handled him.

“This ill fated loss was all because of personal disputes and because I never bent to the establishment like they wanted me to,” Santos wrote.

The text Santos sent to Republican congressmen went mostly unanswered — except for Rep. Andrew Garbarino, who seems to have been doing some trolling of his own.

Garbarino’s text — in response to Santos:

“Sorry new phone, who dis?”

A Garbarino spokeswoman confirmed to The Point that the response was indeed from Garbarino — and that he had not gotten a new phone anytime recently.

— Randi F. Marshall randi.marshall@newsday.com

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