Limited options, high prices dictate how LIers move through housing market
Credit: Getty Images / fStop/Malte Mueller
In December, the National Association of Realtors reported, pending sales decreased across the country — a distinct flip from the previous month, when the association announced an increase in pending sales nationwide.
National pending home sales had increased 3.3% from October to November, according to NAR. The following month, pending sales dropped 9.3%, the association reported this week.
"What's especially important is that this decline comes after four consecutive months of increases," said Nadia Evangelou, senior economist and director of real estate research for NAR. "So this wasn't a market that was already weakening, it was a market that had been gradually improving and then paused for that month."
Though NAR could not provide corresponding data for Long Island, experts told Newsday that Suffolk and Nassau county buyers and sellers are still navigating a market characterized by limited options and high cost.
In discussing affordability conditions, Evangelou referred to NAR's Housing Affordability Index, which measures "how the typical family income compares with the income needed to qualify for a mortgage on a median-priced home," she said in an email.
As of November, Evangelou said, the national HAI is 108.4. This means the typical family earns about 8.4% more than the income required to qualify for a loan on a median-priced home, Evangelou explained.
Locally, the HAI is approximately 68, Evangelou said.
"That means that the typical family earns 30%, almost, less than the income needed to purchase the median-priced home," she said.
On Long Island, Newsday has reported, Census Bureau data showed the 2024 median household income was $143,144 in Nassau County and $126,863 in Suffolk County.
Current market conditions include a dip in mortgage rates, which Freddie Mac reported had fallen to their lowest level in 2025 in December. As of Jan. 15, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate averaged 6.06% — a slight decrease from the previous week, when that figure was 6.16% — according to Freddie Mac.
National home sales data often does not apply to Long Island, where low inventory and high demand have been influencing market conditions for several years.
As a Huntington-based agent for Serhant, Alex Winiarski said he had not observed the same volume increase of pending sales locally that national data suggested in November.
Winiarski described the local market as almost "a hamster wheel" — a cycle that so far will not break.
"I have a ton of clients, for example, that are looking to sell and upgrade, or sell and downgrade, but they're unable to do so because they can't find their next move," Winiarksi said. "And I think we're seeing this lack of inventory because, one, no one can find anywhere to move; but two, because of that, no one is willing to put their home on the market."
Nationally, affordability conditions are the best NAR has seen since the end of 2022, Evangelou said. Based on Long Island Board of Realtors data, Evangelou said sales activity on Long Island is strong; but prices continue to rise at a fast pace in both Nassau and Suffolk counties.
"What we see is that home price appreciation is significantly faster than the national level," Evangelou said in December. "As a result, of course, affordability on Long Island remains more strained than in many other parts of the country."
On Long Island, Winiarski has seen an increase in prices and a decrease in affordability. Four years ago, he said, a client purchased a home in Huntington for $480,000. When the same client puts the home on the market this year — having added fresh paint and a backsplash to the kitchen, and a bathroom to the basement — they will list it for nearly $700,000, Winiarski said.
"Although they've only been in the house for three years, they've gained a hundred-fifty-plus thousand dollars in equity," he said.
As an agent for EXP Realty in Hauppauge, Jeffrey Jimenez said his impression of the local market is that there are fewer buyers now than at this time a year ago. He has noticed increased frequency of price drops and buyer sensitivity to price, he said, and emphasized the role location plays in home sales.
"Where are you located is going to dictate whether your house sells, and you're going to have a lot more activity, giving you more pending sales," Jimenez said. "If you price it wrong, it's going to sit longer, and it's going to take longer for you to get there."
Buyers have grown pickier, he said, but market behavior remains heavily impacted by the condition of limited inventory.
Pending home sales data offers an early read of where home sales are headed, Evangelou said. But she characterized the December decrease as an interruption of momentum, not the emergence of a new trend.
The association classifies a listing as "pending" when the seller has accepted a contract on the property. Some pending sales do not make it to closing, NAR noted in its methodology.
To calculate pending home sale percentages, NAR uses data from over 100 multiple listing services and 60 brokers, according to the organization's website. The pending home sales data accounts for half the existing home sales sample, which is 20% of all transactions, the page says.
Evangelou attributed the December decrease in pending sales to seasonality and low inventory. The final month of the year is traditionally one of slower activity, she said, for the holiday season and winter weather; but a 9.3% drop was steeper than expected.
"The demand we saw building through the fall hasn't gone away, it's just waiting for better options," she said.
Arielle Dollinger joined Newsday as a staff reporter in 2022. Previously, she covered local and national news as a freelancer for The New York Times, Newsday and other outlets.
