Analysis of a fantasy draft

I took part in the Sirius XM Hosts fantasy baseball draft this past week. It is a 12-team 5x5 roto league with 28 roster spots. There are 162-game limits for position players and a 1,400 innings max. I had pick No. 11. Here’s my breakdown and thoughts.

Round 1, Pick No. 11 – Joey Votto (Reds, 1B): I was targeting Carlos Gonzalez, who I am heavily invested in this season. He contributes in all five categories and I thought he would fall to me, but he went at pick No. 9. I took Votto, who will hit above .300, score 100 runs, drive in 100 and hit around 30 home runs. He needs to hit more fly balls to reach the 37 home runs he hit two years ago. He can also steal double-digit bases.

Round 2, Pick No. 2 – Jacoby Ellsbury (Red Sox, OF): I was surprised he fell to me. I don’t expect 32 home runs again considering he never hit more than nine in a season at any level before last year. I do think he can hit 20, hit for average, score runs and steal 40-50 bases.

Round 3, Pick No. 11 – Pablo Sandoval (Giants, 1B/3B): There was no clear cut pick here. I love Sandoval this season. Keep in mind he batted .315 with 55 runs, 23 home runs, 70 RBIs, and a .909 OPS in just 426 at-bats. My first three picks all give me a ton of average allowing me to absorb a poor hitter with power or speed later in the draft.

Round 4, Pick No. 2 – Josh Hamilton (Rangers, OF): There’s no doubt he is an injury risk. Since 2008, he has played in 156, 89, 133, and 121 games. I expect missed time and he is already dealing with a sore groin. In this league we have five DL spots. In just 121 games last season, he batted .298 with 80 runs, 25 home runs, 94 RBIs, and eight stolen bases. He had 32 home runs and 100 RBIs in 133 games in 2010. I wasn’t targeting Hamilton and I also considered Dan Uggla and Desmond Jennings.

Round 5, Pick No. 11 – David Price (Rays, SP): I was really hoping to land Zack Greinke in this round, but he was gone. I love Greinke this season and he’s a value in drafts. He is going to have a dominant season. I went with Price, who despite going 12-13 last season, was better in 2011 than his 19-6 season on 2010. He had an 8.75 K/9, 2.53 BB/9, a 3.49 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. He can be Top 10 this season.

Round 6, Pick No. 2 – Shin-Soo Choo (Indians, OF): I expect a bounce back from Choo, who had injuries and was embarrassed by getting a DUI in 2011. He batted .300 and went 20-20 in the two years prior.

Round 7, Pick No. 11 – Jon Lester (Red Sox, SP): Lester had a disappointing season for him. Still, I was surprised he fell here.

Round 8, Pick No. 2 – Joe Mauer (Twins, C/1B): I really wanted Matt Wieters, who I think will explode this season or Miguel Montero as my No. 1 catcher, but both were gone. I have yet to draft Mauer, but I didn’t love any player here offensively. I considered Madison Bumgarner, who I also love this season. I passed on him because I already owned two pitchers and pitching is deep. I went with Mauer because he was the last of the top tier catchers. I don’t expect power, but if healthy, he will provide great average and counting stats. He’s not overvalued compared to years past. Of all my offensive players so far, they all could hit .290 or better.

Round 9, Pick No. 11 – Joel Hanrahan (Pirates, RP): This is very early for me to take a closer, but there are very few safe options this season and Hanrahan is one of the few. It’s tough to load up on starting pitchers with an innings max.

Round 10, Pick No. 2 – Erick Aybar (Angels, SS): Might be a little early, but I wanted some speed. He stole 30 bases last year and had a success rate of 83 percent. Should score more runs hitting lead off with Albert Pujols batting third.

Round 11, Pick No. 11 – Matt Garza (Cubs, SP): Garza had his best season last year despite a 10-10 record. He relied on his fastball less and induced more grounders. A value pick in drafts.

Round 12, Pick No. 2 – Ike Davis (Mets, 1B): Targeting some power and Davis could hit 25 home runs as my corner infielder.

Round 13, Pick No. 11 – Danny Espinosa (Nationals, 2B): I waited on second base and while he batted .236 last season because of a poor contact rate, he had 21 home runs and 17 stolen bases. With all the great average hitters I drafted, I was able to withstand the poor average. I wanted the power and speed combo.

Round 14, Pick No. 2 – Dexter Fowler (Rockies, OF): I see big things for Fowler in 2012. He had an .880 OPS in the second half last season. He improved his success rate on stolen bases going 10-for-13 in the second half.

Round 15, Pick No. 11 --  Derek Holland (Rangers, SP): Another pitcher I am invested in for 2012. Had a great second half and has the skills to be successful in Texas.

Round 16, Pick No. 2 – Delmon Young (Tigers, OF): Do you realize he’s just 26? Enormous expectations were heaped upon him as the second overall pick. Broke out in 2010 and struggled last season before the trade to Detroit. Had 32 RBIs in 40 games with the Tigers and will bat behind Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder. Lots of RBI chances. A sleeper.

Round 17, Pick No. 11 – Francisco Liriano (Twins, SP): I am buying the 23/3 K/BB ratio in the spring. Clearly, the shoulder injury impacted him. He was terrific two years ago. I invested very little for the possibility of a Top 10 pitcher. If he stinks, I cut him.

Round 18, Pick No. 2 – Frank Francisco (Mets, RP): Closers went like crazy in this draft. Sure, he’s erratic but home runs have been his issue and he pitched in hitter’s parks in Texas and Toronto. He has the job.

Round 19, Pick No. 11 – Matt Thornton (White Sox, RP): Has the skills to close. Hoping the White Sox realize it.

Round 20, Pick No. 2 – Ryan Raburn (Tigers, 2B/OF): Wanted some power and Raburn can hit 20 if he gets consistent at-bats. I can take the poor batting average because of the way my team is built. I will use him at the middle infield spot.

Round 21, Pick No. 11 – Jonathan Broxton (Royals, RP): He could close and the relievers were flying off the board in this draft.

Round 22, Pick No. 2 – Vernon Wells (Angels, OF): Hit .218 last season but that came on a .214 BABIP. A career .274 hitter that hit 25 home runs last season. I’ll take it in my utility spot.

Round 23, Pick No. 11 – Mike Minor (Braves, SP): An upside pick.

Round 24, Pick No. 2 – Nick Hundley (Padres, C): Love Hundley as my No. 2 catcher. Can provide solid average and double-digit home runs.

Round 25, Pick No. 11 – Nolan Reimold (Orioles, OF): Finished strong in 2011 and has power and speed.

Round 26, Pick No. 2 – Gavin Floyd (White Sox, SP): Very undervalued. Solid late-round pick.

Round 27, Pick No. 11 – Glen Perkins (Twins, RP): Could close if Matt Capps struggles.

Round 28, Pick No. 2 – Trevor Plouffe (Twins, 2B/SS/OF): Could play rightfield and has eligibility at three spots. Has some power.

C -- Joe Mauer

C -- Nick Hundley

1B -- Joey Votto

2B -- Danny Espinosa

SS -- Erick Aybar

3B -- Pablo Sandoval

CI -- Ike Davis

MI -- Ryan Raburn

OF -- Jacoby Ellsbury

OF -- Josh Hamilton

OF -- Shin-Soo Choo

OF -- Dexter Fowler

OF -- Delmon Young

U -- Vernon Wells

SP -- David Price

SP -- Jon Lester

SP -- Matt Garza

SP -- Derek Holland

SP -- Francisco Liriano

RP -- Joel Hanrahan

RP -- Frank Francisco

RP -- Matt Thornton

RP -- Jonathan Broxton

Bn -- Nolan Reimold

Bn -- Trevor Plouffe

Bn -- Mike Minor

Bn -- Gavin Floyd

Bn -- Glen Perkins