Dissecting the Baseball Hall of Fame ballot
Angels pitcher Bert Blyleven throws a pitch against the Baltimore Orioles. (May 3, 1990) Credit: AP
The results of the baseball writers' Hall of Fame voting will be announced Wednesday, with Bert Blyleven and Roberto Alomar the most likely to gain induction.
Including Blyleven and Alomar, there are 33 players on the ballot this year, and running down the names and deciding who's worthy and who's not always results in some good debates.
So here are our guesstimates on what percentage of the vote each candidate will receive, keeping in mind that 75 percent gets you into Cooperstown and less than 5 percent drops a player off next year's ballot.
SURE THINGS
74.2 percent last year, 14th appearance on ballot
Skinny: After he fell a mere five votes shy of induction last year, we expect Blyleven to get in this time. You may call him a numbers compiler, but 3,701 strikeouts is hard to ignore.
Prediction: 79.3 percent.
73.7 percent, second appearance
Skinny: Alomar was eight votes short last year, with some voters admittedly not wanting to give him "first-ballot Hall of Famer" status. So he'll make it easily this year, as he should.
Prediction: 83.8 percent.
MAYBE SOMEDAY
Jack Morris
52.3 percent, 11th appearance
Skinny: Morris' candidacy has been trending upward - he's jumped 15 percent in the last three years - and we're expecting another big surge this year. Blyleven getting in figures to help his cause, too.
Prediction: 59.7 percent.
51.6 percent, second appearance
Skinny: A 12-time All-Star who was an all-around great shortstop, the longtime Reds player is expected to get a boost of support in his second year on the ballot, as eventual Hall of Famers often do.
Prediction: 57.1 percent.
47.3 percent, eighth appearance
Skinny: As the education of meaningful baseball statistics evolves, the save statistic continues to lose value. So Smith's 478 saves - an impressive number in longevity - don't guarantee him Cooperstown entry.
Prediction: 43.5 percent.
36.2 percent, second appearance
Skinny: An offensive force, Martinez is fighting uphill trying to convince voters that his work as a designated hitter is just as worthy of the Hall of Fame as a two-way player's work is.
Prediction: 38.0 percent.
First appearance on ballot
Skinny: Bagwell averaged 34 homers and 115 RBIs, was named MVP once and finished in the top 10 five more times. The offense-bloated era that he played in will work against him.
Prediction: 37.4 percent.
30.4 percent, fourth appearance
Skinny: Raines was a dynamic player in his prime, stealing at least 70 bases six straight years early in his career, but his candidacy is hurt by his final years, when he was above average but not great.
Prediction: 31.1 percent.
Larry Walker
First appearance on ballot
Skinny: Playing in Colorado helped boost his numbers, but his offensive statistics are too astounding - .985 OPS - for some voters to ignore. Expect him to remain on the ballot for years.
Prediction: 26.6 percent.
21.5 percent, second appearance
Skinny: Hard to see McGriff's candidacy gaining any traction when players with better all-around offensive numbers such as Bagwell and Walker are on the ballot this season.
Prediction: 23.1 percent.
BAD VIBES
23.7 percent, fifth appearance
Skinny: He hit 583 home runs, including 70 and 65 in 1998-99, but don't expect McGwire's admission last winter that he used steroids and human growth hormone to change his Hall of Fame fate in the near future.
Prediction: 22.1 percent.
First time on ballot
Skinny: This will test the once-ironclad standard that 3,000 hits means automatic entry into Cooperstown. His strong denial of steroid use before Congress followed by a positive test result casts a dark cloud over his achievements.
Prediction: 20.0 percent.
TOO SOON OR TOO LATE
22.4 percent, 10th appearance
Skinny: Like many players who hang on the ballot for years, Trammell had a very good career but just lacked that extra oomph that makes you think "Hall of Famer" when you hear his name.
Prediction: 18.9 percent.
First appearance on ballot
Skinny: His inclusion in the Mitchell Report will hurt his candidacy in some eyes, and his ornery personality certainly rubbed people the wrong way. But he still was one heck of a pitcher in his prime.
Prediction: 18.8 percent.
16.1 percent, 11th appearance
Skinny: Even Mattingly readily admits he didn't sustain his greatness long enough to make it to Cooperstown. But a consistent group of voters every year checks his name.
Prediction: 14.3 percent.
Dale Murphy
11.7 percent, 13th appearance
Skinny: It's clear Murphy simply fell two or three great seasons short of receiving serious consideration.
Prediction: 13.1 percent.
Dave Parker
15.2 percent, 15th appearance
Skinny: This is Parker's last year on the writers' ballot, and his candidacy will end unceremoniously.
Prediction: 12.9 percent.
Juan Gonzalez
First appearance on ballot
Skinny: Two-time MVP who totaled 434 homers. But considering that McGriff (493 homers) received only 21.5 percent last year, Gonzalez has no shot.
Prediction: 8.4 percent.
6.1 percent, fifth appearance
Skinny: Finished only 134 hits shy of 3,000, which keeps earning him just enough votes to remain on the ballot. Expect that trend to continue.
Prediction: 5.5 percent.
First appearance on ballot
Skinny: Simply amassing saves won't get you into Cooperstown. Just ask Lee Smith. But Franco's 424 - fourth all-time and most by a lefty - should warrant some votes.
Prediction: 3.8 percent.
GONERS
(Making their first and last appearances on the ballot)
Skinny: Don Mattingly's Yankees successor won four rings in six years. But while Mattingly's career was good enough to get the 5 percent necessary to remain on the ballot each year, Martinez's wasn't.
Prediction: 1.2 percent
Skinny: What a steal when the Mets acquired him from Toronto for Robert Person in 1996. But his offensive production declined quickly, leaving him with 2,239 hits, well short of Cooperstown standards.
Prediction: 0.8 percent.
Skinny: Who knows how good he might have been had he not been injured early on. He was only 33-32 when he turned 30, then became a workhorse, winning another 129 games.
Prediction: 0 percent.
Skinny: Lifetime .266 hitter.
Prediction: 0 percent.
Charles Johnson
Skinny: Never turned into the offensive force scouts thought he'd become, except for one season: He hit .304 with 31 home runs in 2000.
Prediction: 0 percent.
Skinny: Too bad the voters can't consider his 2001 season with the Long Island Ducks. He hit .315 with a .383 OBP and .522 slugging percentage.
Prediction: 0 percent.
Raul Mondesí
Skinny: Hit 214 homers before his 31st birthday, then only 57 in the years that followed.
Prediction: 0 percent.
Skinny: Top accomplishment was spending his entire 11-year career with one team, the Tigers.
Prediction: 0 percent.
Skinny: Won 105 games with the Giants, but not a Hall of Famer.
Prediction: 0 percent.
Skinny: Former Met's MLB pinch-hit record (212) won't matter to voters.
Prediction: 0 percent.
Benito Santiago
Skinny: One of the best defensive catchers during his era. Not a Hall of Famer.
Prediction: 0 percent.
B.J. Surhoff
Skinny: Made only one All-Star team. 'Nuff said.
Prediction: 0 percent.
Skinny: With 429 stolen bases, he could have been a much more dynamic offensive player if not for his struggles to get on base (.318 OBP).
Prediction: 0 percent.
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