If MLB changes draft rules, players like Mets' A.J. Ewing, Yankees' George Lombard Jr. could become obsolete

Two months after turning 21, an age when many young adults are wrapping up their college studies, George Lombard Jr. took over as the Yankees’ starting shortstop.

His job training involved 333 games in the minors, but just 56 at Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre this year, and it’s fair to say that Lombard was fitted for his pinstriped No. 96 jersey sooner than expected. The timing, however, was logical.

The Yankees needed a capable everyday shortstop and Lombard, who they picked 26th overall in the 2023 draft, already was showing that his prodigious talent and uncommon poise had outgrown the RailRiders. Sidelined for nearly a month with sprained fingers, Lombard ultimately convinced the Yankees’ decision-makers with one final push, hitting .377 with a 1.081 OPS over that last 14-game runway to the Bronx.

“I wouldn’t say you ever get to a point where it’s like, OK, I’m ready,” Lombard told Newsday. “You always have times where you feel good, and have times where you don’t. I was just focused on my day-to-day stuff down there and all the other stuff would figure itself out.”

Lombard made it to The Show in relatively short order. His journey was more like a sprint and, for prospects like him, one that defied some fairly steep odds, as 75% of high school signees never get that dream-shot promotion to the big leagues, according to Major League Baseball. Like everything else with the sport, the draft system has become a hot-button topic in labor negotiations for a new collective bargaining agreement, and MLB’s preference is to eliminate the direct high-school path to the pros altogether.

Under MLB’s current proposal, which would be effective for the 2028 draft, players must turn 20 by September of that same year and be at least two years removed from high-school graduation (i.e. sophomores in college). The reasoning is that college is more beneficial to the development of young players, and MLB is to quick to point out that 82 college players since 2023 reached the majors within two years of being drafted — a significant bump from the previous seven years combined. The proposed change would also shorten the draft from the current 20 rounds to 12.

Of course, there is always a financial component, and by leaning on the college ranks as an extension of the minor leagues, MLB’s owners believe they can tilt the monetary risk more in their favor. In Lombard’s case, the Yankees went above his slot value to give a 17-year-old kid out of Gulliver Prep (Fla.) a $3.3 million signing bonus (he turned down a commitment to Vanderbilt). This July, the Rays picked shortstop Grady Emerson from Forth Worth (Tex.) Christian at No. 2 and handed him a $9.74 million bonus, the highest ever for a high school player.

That’s no small investment, especially for an untested teenager who likely has another three years, minimum, before actually stepping to the plate for the Rays. Venture further down the draft order and the uncertainty multiplies. Take the Mets’ A.J. Ewing, who went in the same 2023 draft as Lombard, but was a fourth-rounder, No. 134 overall, out of Springboro (Ohio) High. Ewing had committed to the University of Alabama, but chose the Mets instead, receiving an over-slot signing bonus of $675,000.

“I think for the majority of people it’s a tough decision because you miss out on a lot,” Ewing told Newsday. “Going to college is a great experience. You learn a lot, you get a degree and you play great baseball with probably your best friends.

“But I would say for me, it wasn’t too hard. I was dead set on it my entire life. My dream was to play professional baseball, not college baseball. I never dreamed to play baseball at the collegiate level. I wanted to play in the big leagues. So I just felt getting myself in that environment as early as possible would set me up better.”

'A different world'

Ideally, yes. Nothing is guaranteed, and taking a detour through college doesn’t necessarily mean another shot at the pros is a sure thing. Why not get a head start, and pick up a nice chunk of cash along the way? Little did Ewing realize at the time, however, that skipping school for rookie ball didn’t mean he wouldn’t be getting an education. Just not the type he would have signed up for as an Alabama freshman.

“It’s definitely a different world,” Ewing said. “I would say that I probably was not ready. Not at all. I got punched in the mouth pretty hard my first year.”

Ewing batted .233 with 109 strikeouts (29% rate) over 90 games in his first full season split between Rookie League and Class A St. Lucie. But from there it was a rapid, encouraging climb -- hitting .316 with an .830 OPS over three stops the following year, then spending only 12 games total at Triple-A Syracuse (.326 BA, .827 OPS) this season before being promoted to the Mets on May 12.

“Some people take that hit and never come out of it,” Ewing said. “I know I’m going to struggle, but I also feel like I have the tools and the ability to get out of it and be good.”

Flexing that resilience can be the secret sauce for high-school prospects, who are forced to roll with those punches riding on buses and staying in cheap motels while big-time college players are still enjoying the pampered frat-party circuit. They’ve got to grow up fast, both on the field and off. Mets interim manager Andy Green witnessed this firsthand as the team’s farm director before taking over for the fired Carlos Mendoza in late June, with Ewing and plenty other high-school picks around the minors.

“I think the risks are definitely higher of potentially landing in the bust category,” Green told Newsday, “because you have far less information of how they’re going to handle adversity, handle being in a different environment. They’ve basically never been on their own in any regard.

“The special ones, though, have an incredible ceiling. They can fly through the system. In A.J.’s case, he switched from a guy who was struggling to make contact his first year to a guy who made elite contact for a long period of time. And the way he’s wired — he’s just wired to compete.”

Fast track to big leagues

Green also got a glimpse of the Yankees’ future earlier this season when he had the opportunity to see Lombard play for Double-A Somerset. By then, Green knew it wouldn’t be long before the shortstop prodigy punched his ticket to the Bronx. Like Ewing, Lombard already had separated himself, as the fast-trackers do.

“They reveal themselves pretty quickly,” Green said.

Not without a few difficult lessons along the way, however. And failure is the greatest teacher once a high school star makes that huge leap to pro ball.

“That’s probably the toughest thing, adjusting to that first full year,” Lombard said. “I remember looking at my stats after my first month at Low-A. I had never hit below .400 my whole life and I was hitting .215 a month into the season. I was like, what is going on?”

Lombard’s Bronx predecessor, Anthony Volpe, had a very similar track. Volpe also was the Yankees’ first-round pick, No. 30 overall, out of Delbarton High (N.J.) in 2019 and turned down a commitment to Vanderbilt to turn pro. He spent only 275 games in the minors, including 22 at Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, before being named the Yankees’ Opening Day shortstop at the start of the 2023 season.

Three years later, Volpe ultimately lost that job to Lombard and is now learning second base with the RailRiders, his Bronx future hazy at best. As a son of a major-leaguer who grew up around the game, hanging out in star-studded clubhouses, Lombard still doesn’t take any of this for granted. As quickly as he got to the Bronx, he’s acutely aware of how fast a dream can flip, and his maturation in the minors came with a curriculum that’s way beyond a college campus.

“Whatever happens, you just gotta keep playing baseball,” Lombard said. “Prepare, keep working, try to get a little better every day and things kind of work themselves out. But that’s real life, right? Professional baseball is going to be like that. It’s going to be tough.”