After Mets fail to lure Yoshinobu Yamamoto, club seems likely to avoid Jordan Montgomery or Blake Snell
David Stearns speaks during his introductory news conference at Citi Field on Monday, Oct. 2, 2023. Credit: James Escher
When Yoshinobu Yamamoto agreed to sign with the Dodgers on Thursday night, he did more than just add to a fearsome superteam that already boasts last year’s American League MVP and two NL MVP finalists.
He did more than decline Steve Cohen’s matching offer. He also recast the narrative around the Mets' offseason and their bargaining power.
“The organization and I left it all on the field,” Cohen told Newsday on Friday.
Cohen wasn’t exaggerating, either. The Mets’ billionaire owner visited Yamamoto in Japan and had him over at his Connecticut home, and the New York Post reported Friday that it was Cohen who initially offered the 12-year, $325 million contract the righthander eventually accepted. The only problem is that he accepted it with the Dodgers after taking that bid back to Los Angeles and asking them to match the Mets’ price. Cohen wasn’t given the opportunity to make a counteroffer.
And that changes everything.
“When you're pursuing someone who is a very highly-sought-after free agent that’s going to get a lot of money, you have to strategize around that,” Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns said earlier this month. “If we get him, that probably leads us down one path in the offseason. If we don’t get him, we'll adjust and go down alternate paths.”
Last year proved that it takes far more than money to win in this baseball landscape, and when then-general manager Billy Eppler started his trade deadline fire sale, he clarified that while the Mets intended to be “competitive” in 2024, the true focus was building a sustainable winner and robust farm system for 2025 and beyond.
And though Eppler is gone now, Stearns’ recent comments indicate that ethos hasn’t changed.
The Mets' Yamamoto offer wasn’t an attempt to buy their way into a World Series this year but rather the result of a very particular set of circumstances that made it impossible for Cohen to not shoot his shot. At 25, the Japanese ace was hitting free agency at an age when other pitchers usually are under team control. The Mets would have to part with only money, not prospects, to get a pitcher coming into his prime, and that was fine with Cohen.
It could be tempting to take that money and throw it at the next-best thing — reigning NL Cy Young Award winner Blake Snell or Rangers postseason star Jordan Montgomery. That, though, seems unlikely and possibly unwise. Not when there’s a long game to consider.
It instead is probable that the Mets will pivot completely, give up on getting a front-end starter and opt to pad out their thin rotation with more affordable options such as Lucas Giolito or, maybe more tantalizingly, Japanese lefty Shota Imanaga — a soft tosser with a varied arsenal and impressive ball movement that earned him the nickname “The Throwing Philosopher.”
Imanaga, 30, will be far cheaper than Yamamoto, projects to be a mid-rotation starter (according to Sports Info Solutions) and will allow the Mets greater flexibility in filling other holes in the short term: a designated hitter, bullpen depth and reinforcements at third base or the outfield.
But where does that leave the starting pitching?
Well, it starts with Kodai Senga, who established himself as an ace last year and figures to only get better as he gets acclimated to pitching in the United States. They have Jose Quintana, who pitched respectably after spending the first half of the season on the injured list. Luis Severino is an interesting reclamation project if he can stay healthy. Adrian Houser, recently acquired from the Brewers in a cash dump, is a good-enough back-end piece. Throwing in Imanaga or Giolito, who had a 3.45 ERA in the first half before imploding in the second half, could, at the very least, make them competitive.
After that, it’ll be time for Stearns to flex that Harvard brain and continue to make depth moves while rounding out the roster with more modest free-agent signings: J.D. Martinez, Justin Turner, David Robertson or Joc Pederson.
Sure, that doesn’t make for the most exciting offseason, but by eschewing the Montgomery-Snell dogfight, the Mets will avoid a front-end pitching market that’ll be further inflated by Yamamoto’s contract — the largest ever offered to a free-agent starter.
It also puts them in a better position to tackle next year’s starting pitching free-agent class, which will be ripe for the picking, barring contract extensions: Walker Buehler, Zack Wheeler, Shane Bieber and Corbin Burnes come to mind.
And hey, instead of Yamamoto this year, the Mets eventually can duke it out for Japanese star Roki Sasaki. The 22-year-old pitcher is expected to be posted either next offseason or in the one after.
In short, the (long) game has just begun.
Laura Albanese is a reporter, feature writer and columnist covering local professional sports teams; she began at Newsday in 2007 as an intern.
