With free agency beginning, here's what Mets could do
Yoshinobu Yamamoto (18) of Team Japan pitches in the eighth inning against Team Mexico during the World Baseball Classic Semifinals at loanDepot park on March 20, 2023, in Miami. (Eric Espada/Getty Images/TNS) Credit: TNS/Eric Espada
It’s almost time to see what David Stearns has planned to fix the Mets.
Monday is a significant day on the baseball calendar for two reasons: the opening of free agency and the start of the general managers’ meetings, the annual unofficial kickoff to the offseason.
The GM meetings — which will be held in Scottsdale, Arizona, this year — are like a scaled-back version of December’s winter meetings, with executives from every club and most agents gathering at the same fancy warm-weather resort. Although few contracts are agreed to during these several days, the parties routinely engage in groundwork-laying conversations that yield deals in the weeks and months to come.
For the Mets, Monday marks the start of what is poised to be another awfully busy offseason. Stearns, newly installed as president of baseball operations, and his evolving inner circle of decision-makers, including a manager when he hires one, have lots of work to do given the roster’s state of disrepair at the end of the season.
The Mets had just one player, Carlos Carrasco, become a free agent after the World Series. But given the gaping holes that resulted from their trade-deadline sell-off, as well as other uncertainties, they’ll need to add a bunch of players.
Expect most of that to come via free agency. Although Stearns often did well on trades while in charge of the Brewers, the Mets’ preference as they continue to build the farm system is not to trade prospects, which limits their flexibility there.
Here is an overview of the Mets’ most prominent needs and options to fill them:
Multiple starting pitchers
Kodai Senga and Jose Quintana are the only starters under contract for 2024. Behind them, the Mets have the group that served as depth options last season: David Peterson, Tylor Megill, Joey Lucchesi and Jose Butto (followed by an interesting group of prospects with no major-league experience).
Thus, the Mets need to add at least two — maybe three — rotation pieces. That includes probably at least one front-of-the-rotation arm.
The best pitcher on the market will be righthander Yoshinobu Yamamoto, a Japanese star who is expected to be made available by his NPB team this offseason. His latest excellent season, including a 1.21 ERA and 0.88 WHIP, won him his third consecutive Sawamura Award, the equivalent in that country of the Cy Young Award.
Oh, and he is only 25. Even if the Mets don’t play in the deepest end of the free-agent pool this year, as owner Steve Cohen has said is the plan, Yamamoto is young enough and theoretically good enough to be an exception.
The next-best pitchers are the Padres’ Blake Snell, the likely National League Cy Young Award winner, and Phillies stalwart Aaron Nola. But they are older (both 31 next season) and likely to command comfortably nine-figure deals, so the Mets aren’t the best match.
Jordan Montgomery would be a good, reliable option. He has a 3.48 ERA and has averaged more than 30 starts per season over the past three seasons. Depending on where his market ends up — he surely made himself major money with a strong postseason — he could be a good mid-rotation fit.
Look for the Mets to be in the market for another Quintana-esque contract. Pitchers who could get multiyear deals at medium money include Kyle Hendricks and Kenta Maeda, plus former Mets Michael Wacha and Seth Lugo. We’d have to see if the last two would be open to joining the new-vibes Mets, though.
Several relief pitchers
The Mets expect closer Edwin Diaz back from knee surgery, and they should have lefthander Brooks Raley ($6.5 million option) and righthander Adam Ottavino ($6.75 million player option).
That is a start. But everything behind them — including Drew Smith, who pitched his way out of a high-leverage role and finished with a 4.15 ERA in 2023 — is subject to change.
Stearns’ Brewers were adept at building bullpens on the fly and on the cheap, so signings for this section of the roster probably won’t be as splashy. If they want to add an established arm, Hector Neris (team option) has closing experience and has been much better in his career than his Phillies-era meltdowns against the Mets would suggest, Matt Moore has had consecutive strong seasons as a reliever and Fordham product Nick Martinez (complicated team/player options) has been a very useful swingman for the Padres.
A hitter
The Mets need another hitter, but they are flexible enough — thanks especially to Jeff McNeil — that they aren’t locked into one position.
If they want, they can add a leftfielder (Lourdes Gurriel Jr.?) or a rightfielder (Teoscar Hernandez?) or a third baseman (Jeimer Candelario?) or a second baseman (slim pickings) or any combination of the above — whatever makes most sense for their budget and defensive preferences for McNeil and the trio of Brett Baty, Ronny Mauricio and Mark Vientos (plus Starling Marte).
Of course, the Mets also must figure out what to do at DH, too. If they manage to land Shohei Ohtani, maybe the most anticipated free agent ever, that question will be answered.
Tim Healey is the Mets beat writer for Newsday. Born on Long Island and raised in Connecticut, Tim has previously worked for the South Florida Sun Sentinel, the Boston Globe and MLB.com. He is also the author of “Hometown Hardball,” a book about minor league baseball in the northeast.
