Thinking ahead: Life after David Wright

The hot corner could get very cold for the Mets if they trade David Wright at some point this season.

Wright, with one year left on his contract plus a team option for 2013, leaves the Mets in the position of having to make a tough choice about their star third baseman: either pony up the money to re-sign him after the 2013 season (or extend him prior to that) or trade him for prospects.

First, let's look at Wright's numbers then see who is already in the organization that could make up for that production. Then, we'll look at the free agents to be.

Defense: Never particularly known for his fielding, Wright has a -4.0 UZR/150 in 9,723.2 innings at third base. UZR -- Ultimate Zone Rating -- is an advanced stat that uses play-by-play data to measure how many runs above or below average a defensive player is at their position; UZR/150 is the player's rating per 150 games. He also averages about 18.5 errors per year.

Offense: For his career, Wright has a .300 batting average and .380 on-base percentage with 183 home runs. But his average and OBP have decreased each of the last three seasons, leading to a career-worst .253 average in 2011 and a .345 OBP, the worst since his rookie season. He's also only posted a single season of at least a .500 slugging percentage during the last three years, a .503 mark in 2010.

- Major League Roster

Daniel Murphy could be the best option to replace Wright. He has a surprising 6.3 UZR/150 in a limited number of innings at third base (220.2, all in 2011). He's made four errors at third (two fielding). But even if his defense does regress, he should hit well enough to at least bridge the gap between Wright's departure and his eventual longterm successor. Murphy has a .292 average and .343 on-base percentage in 1,130 plate appearances. Of course, a move would create a hole at second base, the position Murphy is expected to play this season.

Other options: Justin Turner has a 2.4 UZR/150 in 313.2 innings at third (though he's a .249 career hitter with no power) and backup infielder Ronny Cedeno only has 43 innings of experience there (and they weren't pretty:  -14.1 UZR/150).

- Minors

Shortstop Wilmer Flores could see a move to third because of his lack of range, but he's not a selective hitter and “has yet to have a breakout,” according to the 2012 Minor League Baseball Analyst. Jefry Marte has yet to play above Single-A advanced and has struggled offensively. Zach Lutz played at Triple-A last season, but is already 26 and has health issues. Aderlin Rodriguez is still at Single-A Savannah and there are questions about his defense and plate discipline.

- Free Agency

MLBTradeRumors.com lists 17 third baseman who had at least 50 major league at-bats last year and are on track for free agency after the 2012 season. Seven have some type of option for 2013. Only five of the 17 players are age 32 or younger: Jorge Cantu, Maicer Izturis, Jose Lopez, Mark Reynolds and Mark Teahen.

Izturis might be the most attractive of this group, as he's a strong defender (4.7 UZR/150 in 2,014.2 innings) with a .275 career batting average. However, given the dearth of quality options on the free-agent market, he should have options. Reynolds surely wouldn't have any problems hitting home runs out of Citi Field, but he really can't do much else (.238 career average) and is a defensive liability -- he has a -10.5 career UZR/150 in 5,452.2 innings at third base, a good, large sample size.

Here's the rest of the list: Casey Blake, Geoff Blum, Miguel Cairo, Eric Chavez, Mark DeRosa, Brandon Inge, Chipper Jones, Placido Polanco, Scott Rolen, Ty Wigginton, Kevin Youkilis and, of course, David Wright.

Right now, there really is no replacing Wright.

Cody Derespina's "The Numbers Game" is a Newsday app-only exclusive.