MLB free agency predictions: Newsday's David Lennon makes picks for top dozen

This year’s free-agent class doesn’t feature a record-breaking market-mover like Juan Soto, whose availability basically put a freeze on signings until he agreed with the Mets on the eve of last December’s winter meetings.

But there are plenty of dominoes that still need to fall, as most of the marquee names remain on the board, aside from a few early market indicators.

The Blue Jays, fresh off that heartbreaking World Series loss, haven’t wasted any time reloading to get back, signing two starters: the highly coveted Dylan Cease (seven years, $210M) and the intriguing Cody Ponce, last year’s KBO MVP (three years, $30 million).

Those two quick-strike contracts now set the stage for the likes of Framber Valdez, Michael King and Tatsuya Imai.

A flurry of closers also have found their price: Devin Williams (Mets, three years, $51M), Ryan Helsley (Orioles, two years, $28M), Raisel Iglesias (Atlanta, one year, $16M) and Emilio Pagan (Reds, two years, $20M).

What will those deals mean for Edwin Diaz and Robert Suarez?

We’re about to get some answers, and figure on plenty of decisions being made in the upcoming week when the industry descends on Orlando for the winter meetings.

With that in mind, here are some predictions where the top dozen free agents will wind up, although with so many dominoes in play, their impact on each other has yet to be determined.

1. Kyle Tucker

Tucker was mentioned in the same conversation with Soto a year ago as one of the game’s most dangerous lefthanded hitters, and he was Soto-like through his first 83 games with the Cubs (.291 batting average, 17 homers, .931 OPS). A second-half slip (.231 average, .738 OPS) probably cost him a few bucks, but Tucker  still is the top free-agent prize, and at his $300 million to $400 million price point, expect the usual suspects.

Prediction: Dodgers

2. Bo Bichette

Returning from a knee sprain forced Bichette to shift from his usual shortstop position to second base for the World Series, further showcasing his flexibility — and likely his future position — on the eve of free agency. His bat is the big draw anyway, and after Bichette’s dramatic Game 7 homer in the World Series, why not keep the good vibes going north of the border, especially paired with fellow homegrown star Vladimir Guerrero Jr.?

Prediction: Blue Jays

3. Alex Bregman

Bregman opted out of a contract paying him $40 million annually (through 2027) to shoot for a longer-term jackpot, and his one strong season (.821 OPS) for the Red Sox showed that he could replicate his Houston success elsewhere. Should be a priority again for Boston, but it’s unclear how far the Sox are willing to go payroll-wise. Bregman is a proven winner who will be on nearly every contender’s wish list.

Prediction: Tigers

4. Kyle Schwarber

As a full-time DH, Schwarber does one thing extremely well, and his type of raw power is a very bankable commodity in this market. It also helps that Schwarber is coming off a career year (56 homers, 132 RBIs, .928 OPS) and won’t be neutralized by lefty pitchers. Can’t see the Phillies letting the perfect Broad Street Bully get away, especially after Schwarber just finished second in the MVP voting, sandwiched between Shohei Ohtani and  Soto.

Prediction: Phillies

5. Framber Valdez

Among a thin crop of free-agent starting pitchers, Valdez is the best of the bunch, a sinkerball specialist who keeps the ball on the ground and inside the fences as well as anyone else. That helps him consistently get deep into games and preserve bullpens — two of the most coveted skills for a starter. There has been recent smoke around the Mets, but long-term deals for aces 32 and older don’t fit David Stearns’ profile.

Prediction: Orioles

6. Cody Bellinger

Like Soto last year, Bellinger is in the enviable spot of having both New York teams pursuing him — again the perfect storm for agent Scott Boras, who leveraged that dynamic to get Soto’s record $765 million deal. Bellinger, 30, obviously isn’t in that neighborhood, but the bidding should get him close to $200 million as a solid all-around performer who was unfazed by the Big Apple spotlight (.272 batting average, 29 homers, .813 OPS).

Prediction: Yankees

7. Pete Alonso

A year later, Alonso is right back where he started, albeit $30 million richer thanks to the face-saving one-year deal (and opt-out) that got the Polar Bear back to Flushing last winter on a team-friendly contract. Don’t expect that scenario to play out again. Alonso seems more willing to pack up his franchise home run record and head for greener pastures — perhaps in the shadow of the Green Monster?

Prediction: Red Sox

8. Tatsuya Imai

Finally, some hope for the 29 teams that don’t play in downtown Los Angeles. Imai emphasized last month that he’d rather “take down” the Dodgers  than play alongside their Japanese stars and doesn’t feel the need to lean on his countrymen to smooth a transition to the majors. Imai apparently throws as much heat with his attitude as his fastball (high-90s) and had a 1.92 ERA for the Seibu Lions last season. Maybe he’s not the next Yoshinobu Yamamoto, but teams think he’s close enough.

Prediction: Phillies

9. Ranger Suarez

Not the flashiest of free-agent options, Suarez has been a sturdy performer in a stacked Phillies rotation, relying on a six-pitch repertoire good enough to make a 90-mph fastball (seventh percentile!) deceptive among that mix. Still, leaning heavily on his off-speed mix has made him a master at inducing soft contact, and last year’s 3.20 ERA was his best since becoming a full-season starter in 2022. Suarez’s most attractive calling card might be his postseason success (1.48 ERA in 11 games/eight starts).

Prediction: Cubs

10. Edwin Diaz

It's going to be a tough call for Diaz, who obviously feels comfortable amid the Citi Field trumpets and  certainly will get a very competitive offer from the Mets to stick around. But the last we heard from him, Diaz described a Flushing return as a 50-50 coin flip, an indication that he’s going for the highest bidder after opting out of his five-year, $102 million contract. Entering his age 32 season, he’s gunning for a similar deal. Somebody’s going to give it to him — or need to get very close.

Prediction: Mets

11. Michael King

When King actually takes the mound, he can be among the most dominant pitchers in the sport. He was the centerpiece of what the Yankees gave San Diego in the Soto trade, and in his first full season as a starter,  he made 30 starts for the 2024 Padres, finishing with a 2.95 ERA and a 10.4 K/9 rate that landed him seventh in the National League Cy Young Award voting. Last year, King missed half the season with shoulder nerve and knee issues, limiting him to15 starts (3.44 ERA, 9.3 K/9) and hurting his first shot at free agency. That injury discount could make him a bargain.

Prediction: Yankees

12. Munetaka Murakami

Murakami comes to the States with huge power but also plenty of red flags. The lefty slugger averaged 35 homers during the past seven years for the Yakult Swallows — who play in a notoriously hitter-friendly park — and earned the single-season home run title after smashing 56 in 2022. But Murakami had alarming contact numbers the past two seasons — 37% whiff rate and 29% strikeout rate — stats that tend to go up in Major League Baseball, where the pitchers' velocity jumps significantly compared to Japan. He’s also a suspect defender at the corner infield spots, so he’ll need to DH as well. On the plus side, Murakami is only 25, so there’s time for improvement.

Prediction: Angels