Major League Baseball commissioner Rob Manfred responds to a question...

Major League Baseball commissioner Rob Manfred responds to a question Thursday, Nov. 18, 2021, during a news conference in Chicago.  Credit: AP/Charles Rex Arbogast

Major League Baseball’s wasted winter will result in a shortened regular season if no agreement is reached on a new CBA by Monday, the deadline Rob Manfred had set to preserve the original March 31 start for Opening Day.

In other words, any games lost to MLB’s self-imposed lockout, which has frozen the sport since Dec. 2, will be canceled -- not postponed to be made up at a later date. That of course means the players will not have the opportunity to recoup their salaries for any erased part of the schedule, an obvious shot across the union’s bow with the two sides wrapping up their third consecutive day of negotiations Wednesday in Jupiter, Florida.

"A deadline is a deadline," an MLB spokesperson told reporters Wednesday at Roger Dean Stadium. "Missed games are missed games. Salary will not be paid for those games"

Manfred has said for weeks that baseball would need a full month to adequately prepare for the start of the regular season, so the Feb. 28 deadline to get a deal done for the sake of Opening Day was not really a surprise. But choosing to cancel games rather than try to keep the integrity of a 162-game schedule, and fully compensate the players, comes off as more brinkmanship by the owners with only five days left to negotiate.

In addition, the players already have said they would not agree to MLB’s expanded playoffs proposal if this season’s number of games is reduced and their salaries are not kept intact. So that is a sizable poker chip as well.

First, MLB locked out the players, then waited 43 days before making a proposal. The two sides then had a half-dozen face-to-face meetings, with negligible progress, over the course of a few weeks before moving the sessions from New York to Jupiter for this critical eight-day stretch leading up to Monday’s deadline.

In the meantime, the opening of spring training camps has been delayed indefinitely and the first week of exhibition games, scheduled to begin Feb. 26, already has been wiped out. MLB said last Friday that the earliest the schedule could resume would be March 5, but that no longer seems possible, so another announcement is likely coming very soon.

Both sides pledged to meet every day this week in the hope of agreeing on a new CBA by Monday, but the negotiations have resulted in mostly incremental changes to the previous proposals, despite a handful of players from the union’s executive subcommittee -- including Max Scherzer, Francisco Lindor and Gerrit Cole -- showing up to participate in the sessions.

The biggest hurdle to a new deal is the one economic issue that so far has been avoided: the competitive balance tax. The last proposal on that topic was provided by MLB, which offered a first tier of $214 million on payrolls for the first two years of the CBA, followed by $216M, $218M and $222M. The Players Association, however, is seeking a starting tier of $245 million and has not made a counteroffer in this area since the lockout began.

That opening gap of $31 million is significant, and the union also has taken issue with the steep penalties attached. The tax rates for exceeding the subsequent payroll tiers go from 50% to 75% to 100%. As for the pre-arbitration bonus pool, a method to raise salaries for younger players, the union has requested $115 million while MLB has offered $20 million. MLB also remains inflexible on the qualifying service time for arbitration/free agency and won’t budge on revenue sharing.

As for Wednesday’s discussions, MLB came back on the proposal for minimum salaries, offering slight increases of $10,000 annually starting at $640,000 for the first year. The players’ request begins at $775,000 and includes annual increases of $30,000.

The lack of meaningful movement over the course of this week doesn’t bode well for Monday’s deadline. And with a 162-game season now hanging in the balance, the stakes seemingly have been raised.

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