Numbers: Baseball's next big thing
Neftali Feliz pitches in the ninth inning during Game Six of the World Series. (Oct. 27, 2011) Credit: Getty Images
Baseball is all about stealing signs.
Each team wants to know what the opposition already knows. That could mean whether the next pitch is going to be an inside fastball or what the next cutting edge industry trend will be. Teams are only too happy to play copycat once they see an opponent's strategy working. The Angels won the 2002 World Series with speed? Sign some base stealers. The Athletics use advanced stats? Go hire a math whiz from MIT. A focus on defense is the latest of these schemes to take hold, and the Rays are making an art form out of perfecting their alignments.
But the next big thing is already on the rise: converting relievers into starting pitchers.
This season, six different teams have a hurler in their rotation who primarily pitched in relief last year. (Our cutoff was two or less games started in 2011, but at least 15 relief appearances.) And we're not talking just long men or middle relief fodder that teams are taking chances on; there are former top closers and set-up men in this group.
They are Daniel Bard (Red Sox), Neftali Feliz (Rangers), Lance Lynn (Cardinals), Hector Noesi (Mariners), Chris Sale (White Sox) and Jeff Samardzija (Cubs).
The results haven't been uniform, but they certainly show promise:
- The six combined for a 3.19 ERA, 2.31 K/BB ratio, 8.85 K/9, 3.83 BB/9 and 0.67 HR/9. Their average fastball velocity was 95.06 mph.
- This year they've posted a 3.50 ERA, 2.70 K/BB ratio, 8.12 K/9, 3.00 BB/9 and 0.75 HR/9. Their average fastball velocity is 93.5 mph.
Though most of the group's numbers have risen as starters, none have done so dramatically. The combined ERA is up only 0.31 runs, the home run rate is up just 0.08, and the K/BB ratio has actually improved by 0.39. And this is with the group being dragged down by the subpar work of the former Yankee Noesi, who has a 5.73 ERA this year. Without Noesi, the pitchers are posting a 3.09 ERA so far this season.
The bottom line: these teams are getting comparable production over a greater number of innings.
Perhaps no team, however, has been as ahead of the curve or successful at converting relievers than the Rangers. In each of the last three seasons, the Rangers have had a different converted reliever in their rotation: C.J. Wilson in 2010, Alexi Ogando in 2011 and Feliz this season.
- Over the trio's entire relief career (nine combined seasons), they posted a 3.45 ERA, 2.32 K/BB ratio, 8.61 K/9, 3.71 BB/9 and 0.74 HR/9. Their average fastball velocity was 94.04 mph.
- They have so far posted parts of five seasons serving primarily as starters (just a few starts for Feliz and Wilson in 2012). The numbers: 3.18 ERA, 2.34 K/BB, 7.47 K/9, 3.18 BB/9 and 0.63 HR/9. Their average fastball over the span is 92.34 mph.
Somehow the Rangers managed to get BETTER performances out of their pitchers when they exposed them for more innings and converted them to starters. And this was no gradual, highly managed transition: During his first year as a starter, Wilson threw nearly three times as many innings as he had during his last year as a reliever. Ogando threw over four times as many innings in 2011 than he did in 2010.
Perhaps the most interesting aspect of the Rangers' success is the lack of uniformity between these three pitchers. Wilson was 29 and threw 684 innings between the minors and majors when he was converted. Ogando was 27 and threw 153.1 innings in professional baseball—and had only ever started three games (all in the minors). Feliz is 24 and has 439.2 innings of mileage on his right arm.
The team's scouts simply saw good stuff out of each of these pitchers, the pitchers reported to spring training ready to start and then they went out and did it. The old fashioned way.
And it could soon become the new and fashionable way.
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