Can the Yankees beat the Rays in the ALDS? If they follow these 5 keys, they'll have a great chance.

The Yankees and Rays will meet in the postseason for only the second time in their upcoming American League Division Series.

The previous time came in 2020. After dropping the first game in San Diego — a result of the COVID-19 pandemic that shortened the regular season to 60 games — the Rays won in five games.

The current best-of-five series, though with almost completely different personnel on both teams (although the managers are the same in Aaron Boone and Kevin Cash), has the look of one that again will go the distance.

Five keys for the series, which starts Saturday night at Tropicana Field, with Game 2 scheduled for Monday night:

1. Squeezing wins out of the Trop

To win the series, the Yankees will have to win at least one game at Tropicana Field. They have never played consistently well there over the years, especially in the last decade. They’re 12-17 at the home of the Rays in the last five seasons (not counting 2025, when hurricane damage to the Trop forced the Rays to play that season at Steinbrenner Field, the spring training home of the Yankees) and 28-39 there the last 10 seasons. That includes a 2-5 mark this year.

Cam Schlittler, the presumed American League Cy Young Award winner, is lined up to pitch in Games 2 and 5, if the series goes that long, and he had mixed results in two starts at the Trop this season, going 1-1 with a 2.77 ERA. He allowed three runs and seven hits in five innings of a 5-4 loss on April 12 but was more of his 2026 self in a 5-1 victory on July 6 in which he allowed one run and four hits in eight innings, striking out eight.

Losing the first two games in St. Petersburg wouldn't mean an automatic series loss for the Yankees, but doing so might result in too steep a hill to climb against the AL’s most consistent team.

2. Make Drew Rasmussen look mortal

By not having to play in the wild-card round, the Rays were able to set up their preferred rotation, which starts by having Rasmussen on the mound for Game 1. The righthander has made a career of flummoxing Yankees hitters, going 5-2 with a 1.81 ERA and 0.86 WHIP against them in 11 games (10 starts). When the Yankees last saw him on Sept. 22 at the Stadium, he took a no-hitter into the seventh inning and struck out 11 in a Rays victory that clinched the AL East title. There is, however, a “but,” and it occurred on July 9 at Tropicana Field in the Yankees' 12-4 victory. They knocked out Rasmussen with one out in the third inning, scoring six runs in the frame, the highlight of which was a home run by Ben Rice.

3. Rice and the Rays

With Aaron Judge missing much of the year because of injury, Rice emerged as the club’s offensive MVP, hitting 41 homers, third-most in the American League. The first baseman/DH was especially devastating against the Rays. hitting .356 with 12 homers and a 1.320 OPS in 13 games. That included hitting .456 with five homers and 1.167 OPS in seven games at Tropicana Field. During a four-game series at the Trop just before the All-Star break, Rice went 7-for-16 with four homers and nine RBIs, five of those coming in the Rasmussen game on July 9. Rice struggled at times during Judge’s absence; critically, because the Yankees' captain remains highly questionable for this series, those struggles did not occur against the Rays.

4. Get to the Rays' bullpen

As top-to-bottom good as the Rays are, their bullpen, typically a strength throughout the years, sometimes has been a soft underbelly this season. The unit ranked 14th in the majors in bullpen ERA at 3.99 (compared with the Yankees' bullpen, which ranked second at 3.13). All-Star closer Bryan Baker posted a 1.44 ERA in 65 games en route to recording an MLB-leading 41 saves, but his numbers were more pedestrian against the Yankees, a 3.00 ERA in six games. The Yankees believe they can hit the righthander, as well as some of the relievers that come before him. That said, that group of relievers could have a different look. The Rays won’t use more than three starters in the series, and those unused, perhaps Griffin Jax and Ian Seymour, will end up in the bullpen.

5. Catch the ball

That is, of course, obvious, but it is especially key against the Rays. They had the lowest strikeout rate in the majors at 18.8% and the lowest swing-and-miss rate at 20.7%. Rays hitters aren’t known for working the count, averaging only 3.75 pitches per plate appearance, but they excel at putting the ball in play and forcing the opponent to make play after play on defense. The 2025 Blue Jays were that kind of team; not coincidentally, they handled the Yankees both in the regular season and the postseason. For multiple years, “put pressure on their defense” has been a part of most opposing teams’ scouting reports when it comes to the at-times fundamentally deficient Yankees. It is a prominent part of the Rays' reports for this series.