First round NBA playoff predictions

After the lockout, the Chris Paul trade fiasco, the Dwight Howard and Lamar Odom drama, the Metta World Peace elbow, and a lot of basketball in a short period of time, wer'e finally here: In less than 24 hours, the first round of the NBA playoffs tips off.

Here are predictions for the opening series:

No. 1 San Antonio Spurs vs. No. 8 Utah Jazz
Gregg Popovich’s management of the veteran Spurs’ minutes this year ought to garner him Coach of the Year. Just one player (Tony Parker) averaged more than 30 minutes per game, and even Parker is fresh, his minutes more limited the second half of the season when Manu Ginobili returned from injury. Instead of leaning on his core, Popovich turned to role players to surge to the top seed in the West. The Spurs boast more depth than anyone in the league, with a mix of veterans (Stephen Jackson, Matt Bonner) and neophytes (North Babylon’s Danny Green, Kawhi Leonard) subscribing to Pop’s system. Sure, Utah beat San Antonio once in the regular season, but it was with Parker, Ginobili and Tim Duncan all on the bench. Al Jefferson and Paul Millsap in the middle are solid for Utah, but not nearly enough to stay competitive with the Spurs. Spurs in 4.

No. 2 Oklahoma City Thunder vs. No. 7 Dallas Mavericks
James Harden has been cleared to return from a concussion, which is big news for Oklahoma City. With Harden sidelined, the Thunder offense was predictable in a late-season loss to the Lakers; each set ended with either Kevin Durant or Russell Westbrook running an isolation play. Harden is an efficienct scorer, and if nothing else, a decoy that will spread out the Mavericks’ defense. Oklahoma City seeks to avenge a 4-1 loss to Dallas in last year’s Western Conference finals. With Tyson Chandler in New York and the Lamar Odom trade blowing up in their face, the Mavericks are just a shell of the team that beat the Thunder and went on to win the title. Dirk Nowitzki is having a down year, and the veteran supporting cast of Jason Terry, Shawn Marion, Vince Carter and Jason Kidd won’t be able to keep up with the Thunder. Thunder in 5.

No. 3 Los Angeles Lakers vs. No. 6 Denver Nuggets
Andrew Bynum torched the Nuggets this year, averaging 24.8 points (on 66.1 percent shooting) and 11.8 rebounds in four games, three of them Lakers wins. But will Bynum be engaged? And how will the mercurial big man bounce back from getting benched in the Lakers’ double-overtime win over Oklahoma City last week? Factor in Pau Gasol’s struggles in the postseason last year, Kobe Bryant’s achy shin, and the absence of Metta World Peace, and Bynum becomes the key to the series for L.A. Denver was one of the league’s streakiest teams, jumping out to a 14-5 start, slipping to 18-17, then finishing with wins in eight of their last 10 games. Ty Lawson, Arron Afflalo, Kenneth Faried, Andre Miller and Al Harrington were all big in April. If Danilo Gallinari can find the groove he hit before his ankle injury, an upset is very possible. Nuggets in 6.

No. 4 Memphis Grizzlies vs. No. 5 Los Angeles Clippers
Memphis finished on a 16-4 tear to steal the fourth seed from the Clippers. Much of that was the product of an easy schedule, though. While the Grizzlies finished with six straight wins, Memphis managed just narrow wins over the hapless Wolves, Bobcats, Blazers and Cavs over that stretch. Zach Randolph has been solid on the glass since returning from injury, but on offense, he’s been a shell of his 2010-11 self. The Grizzlies need him to find his game if they want to make a run. Los Angeles has an MVP candidate in Chris Paul, but who else can step up late in the game? DeAndre Jordan can’t do anything outside the paint, Blake Griffin struggles at the free-throw line, and Caron Butler’s role in the offense has diminished of late(9.9 points per game since the All-Star break). Grizzlies in 6.

No. 1 Chicago Bulls vs. No. 8 Philadelphia 76ers
Without Derrick Rose for nearly half of the season, Tom Thibodeau’s Bulls played stingy defense — 88.2 points per game, fewest in the league — to earn the top seed in the East. Luol Deng and Joakim Noah anchored the ‘D.’ Deng has an outside shot at winning Defensive Player of the Year, and Noah averaged 9.8 boards and 1.4 blocks in 63 games. The Bulls also have a cast of unsung heroes coming off the bench, namely John Lucas III and Taj Gibson, and added veteran Rip Hamilton. Now healthy, Hamilton should take some of scoring the load off Rose. Philadelphia, like Chicago, leaned heavily on its defense. Nobody on the Sixers averaged more than 15 points per game, and the team’s leading scorer, Lou Williams, came off the bench. Philly slumped after a fast start, finishing the season 15-22 after starting 20-9. Bulls in 6.

No. 2 Miami Heat vs. No. 7 Knicks
There’s a reason the Heat were the match-up nobody wanted. Rather, there are two reasons: LeBron James and Dwyane Wade. James had one of the most dominant seasons in NBA history, finishing with a 30.72 PER, easily best in the league. Wade missed 17 games and is bouncing back from a dislocated left index finger, but did still average 22.1 points, 4.8 boards and 4.6 assists. Miami is most dangerous in the transition; James and Wade form the most athletic duo in the league, and few teams can compete with Miami in a fast-paced game. The Knicks, similar to the Heat, are a very dangerous first round match-up. Carmelo Anthony is on fire, playing far better basketball since Mike Woodson took over. And the Knicks’ bench is arguably the best in the conference, led by streaky shooter J.R. Smith and outside marksman Steve Novak. The uncertainty of Tyson Chandler, though, is really bad news for the Knicks. Miami dominated New York, winning all three meetings this year. Heat in 5.

No. 3 Indiana Pacers vs. No. 6 Orlando Magic
The Bulls and the Heat should be jealous of the Pacers. Without Dwight Howard, Orlando isn’t a playoff team and is probably the easiest draw in the first round. The Magic went 4-8 with Howard on the bench, including a 28-point loss to Atlanta and a 27-point loss to Denver. Howard’s injury has forced significant minutes off the bench for Daniel Orton, who played more than 10 minutes just once before April 15. That’s not a winning formula. While the Magic have slumped, Frank Vogel’s Pacers have surged. Indiana won 12 of 15 games in April, led by a red-hot Danny Granger, who averaged 21.6 points and shot 47.3 percent from three in that span. Darren Collison’s injury also appeared to be a blessing in disguise for the Pacers. Indiana is 7-2 with George Hill starting at point guard and Collison playing with the second unit. Pacers in 5.

No. 4 Boston Celtics vs. No. 5 Atlanta Hawks
Like the Spurs in the West, the veteran Celtics stormed through the latter part of their schedule. Rajon Rondo’s command of the offense, Kevin Garnett’s tough post defense, and the upstart Avery Bradley helped Boston win 15 of its final 20 games. For the Hawks, Joe Johnson and Josh Smith are studs, but there are several red flags. At the forefront is the team’s struggles against winning teams; Atlanta went just 12-19 against teams in the 2012 playoffs. Al Horford, who was originally hopeful to return from a chest injury in time for the playoffs, was ruled out for the first round. And Horford’s backup, Zaza Pachulia, may miss some of the first round with a foot injury. The Hawks were 1-2 against the Celtics this year, and that was against Boston’s 12th-man lineup. The way Boston’s been playing, they should cruise to the second round. Celtics in 6.