Western Conference finals prediction

Oklahoma City's win over the Lakers Monday night set up a Western Conference finals match-up of arguably the two best teams left in this year's playoffs: the Thunder and the Spurs.

Oklahoma City enters the game 9-1 in the postseason. The Thunder swept the defending champion Mavericks in the first round, then won a relatively lopsided series against the overmatched Lakers 4-1 in the West semis.

Their opponents, the Spurs, are the hottest team in the NBA, and in the midst of one of the great late-season runs in NBA history. Including the regular season, San Antonio has reeled off 18 straight wins. They've lost just twice since March 12, and have won six of their eight playoff victories by at least 10 points.

Both San Antonio and Oklahoma City have gotten it done in the playoffs with offense. The Spurs are averaging a playoff-best 102.5 points per game in the postseason, and the Thunder are averaging 100.0 points per game, second-best among playoff teams. San Antonio is also holding teams to just 88.8 points per game, a +13.7 differential (first in the league); Oklahoma City's opponents are averaging 91.9 points per game, a +8.1 differential (second).

While both teams have been outrebounded in the postseason, the numbers are skewed because of how efficient Oklahoma City and San Antonio have been from the field. The Spurs are shooting 49.1 percent from the floor (first in the playoffs) and 42.3 percent from three (first); thus, the fact that they are getting out-rebounded on offensive rebounds by 4.0 per game isn't a surprise. But, on the defensive glass, San Antonio is grabbing close to three more rebounds per game than the opposition.

Similarly, Oklahoma City has been hot from the floor, with the second-best field goal percentage and third-best three-point percentage in the playoffs. And like the Spurs, Oklahoma City is getting out-rebounded on offensive rebounds by 2.0 per game, but has out-rebounded opponents by 1.2 boards per game on the defensive glass.

The prevailing story line in this series will be the Spurs' depth vs. the Thunder's star power. Seven Spurs are averaging at least 7 points per game, while none are averaging 20 points per game. Conversely, Oklahoma city has just four players averaging at least 7 points per game, with two players (Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook) averaging at least 20 points per game.

The key to the series for Oklahoma City will be whether Oklahoma City's thin frontcourt can contain Tim Duncan and Tiago Splitter on the glass, and whether OKC can effectively cover the wing and slow down the Spurs' three-point attack. This postseason, six different Spurs are taking at least two three-point attempts per game, and five of those players have shot at least 43 percent from downtown.

San Antonio needs to try to keep James Harden in check. Considering how on point the Spurs' offense has been this postseason, it's unlikely that Durant and Westbrook alone could do enough to keep pace with San Antonio. If Harden gets going, though, the firepower is there to win the series. Harden had a down series against the Lakers, averaging 16.0 points per game on just 35.8 percent from the floor; he was great against San Antonio this year, though, averaging 19.3 points on 59.4 percent shooting. If Harden can turn the Thunder offense from a two-headed monster into a Big Three, OKC could overpower San Antonio.

At this point, it'd be unwise to bet against the Spurs. San Antonio has been too hot for too long to attribute their sharpshooting and offensive fireworks to any sort of anomaly. Off the bench, the Spurs have Manu Ginobili, Gary Neal, Splitter, Stephen Jackson and Matt Bonner; five impact players, all of whom can score the basketball. Oklahoma City doesn't have the depth to match up with that, and it will cost them the series.

PREDICTION: Spurs in five