NCAA Tournament: Breaking down South Regional

Best team: Tennessee

We’ve seen Rick Barnes’ teams underachieve in the NCAA Tournament before — last year the No. 3 Volunteers were picked off in the second round by surprise Final Four team Loyola-Chicago, and several of his Texas squads exited far earlier than anticipated. But this Tennessee team has the ingredients for an extended stay. For one, all their key players appeared in last year’s Big Dance. Power conference coaches rarely have such a luxury. The Volunteers also have a high-powered offense, ranked third in Kenpom’s adjusted offensive efficiency ratings, and a solid defense.

Best go-to guy: Grant Williams, Tennessee

In a league with John Calipari’s talent-laden Kentucky teams, Williams has won back-to-back SEC Player of the Year awards. His sophomore season indicated he could have a special career for Tennessee, but the jump he made in his junior season somehow exceeded expectations. Williams, who is averaging 19.2 points per game, became a more efficient scorer with extended range. The 6-7 forward is shooting 56.2 percent from the field (up from 47.3), 32.6 percent from three-point range (up from 12.0) and 83.3 percent from the line (up from 76.4). In an overtime win at Vanderbilt, Williams scored 43 points and converted each of his 23 free-throw attempts.

The dark horse: Cincinnati

Cincinnati is not as formidable as it was last year, when it was a No. 2 seed and lost to Nevada in the second round. However, the Bearcats still grind out wins by slowing the pace and stifling opponents with pestering defense. Cincinnati has the pieces to give Tennessee trouble in the second round, and the rest of the South — aside from a potential Elite Eight matchup with Virginia — is not overwhelming.

Best guard/playmaker: Carsen Edwards, Purdue

Dealing with back pain, Edwards turned in one of his worst performances of the season Friday in Purdue’s Big Ten quarterfinal loss to Minnesota. The loss could have been a blessing in disguise, however, because it afforded Edwards’ back a few extra days of rest before the NCAA Tournament. When healthy, Edwards is as potent as any backcourt player in the country. The 6-1 guard is averaging 23 points, 3.5 rebounds and three assists per game. He has the ability to carry Purdue on a run, if he’s healthy.

Best player you’ve never heard of: Jordan Ford, Saint Mary’s

Ford has been remarkably consistent for Saint Mary’s, averaging 21.3 points, 2.8 rebounds and 2.5 assists per game and scoring in single digits just twice all season. The 6-1 guard scored 23 points in the Gaels’ near-upset of Mississippi State in November.

Best potential matchup: Purdue vs. Villanova

The South lacks the enticing potential matchups that exist in the other regions, but Purdue and Villanova could be an entertaining game. Purdue would be playing for a third straight Sweet 16, where they have lost the last two seasons. Villanova, meanwhile, could cement this season as a success by advancing back to the Sweet 16 after losing several players from last year’s championship team. There’s also the very real possibility that Villanova would be playing for the Big East’s only trip to the Sweet 16.

Best bet to spring an upset: No. 13 UC Irvine over No. 4 Kansas State

It feels like we’ve been here before with Kansas State. Last year, Dean Wade missed the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament with an injury. Now a senior, the 6-8 forward is dealing with another injury that could keep him out for the first weekend. Kansas State reached the Elite Eight anyway last year, though it had the good fortune of playing UMBC in the second round. The Wildcats could be vulnerable to UC Irvine, which owns road wins over Saint Mary’s and a down Texas A&M and has not lost since Jan. 16.

Best big man: Ethan Happ, Wisconsin

At 6-10, Happ is a skilled big man who scores, creates, rebounds and defends at a high level. He is averaging 17.5 points, 10.1 rebounds, 4.6 assists, 1.3 blocks and 1.1 steals per game and ranks first in Kenpom’s player of the year ratings. His one bugaboo: the foul line, where he converts just 46.5 percent of his shots.

Most interesting story line: Virginia

By the numbers, this is Tony Bennett’s best team at Virginia. The Cavaliers, who once again boast an elite defense, have never been more efficient offensively. Their 123.5 points per 100 possessions ranks second nationally behind Gonzaga. The question is: will Virginia finally break through to the Final Four? The Cavaliers have a history of not meeting expectations in March. In the past five NCAA Tournaments, they have been a No. 1 seed three times and a No. 2 seed once. They have reached one Elite Eight and one other Sweet 16, and, of course, most famously became the first No. 1 seed to lose to a No. 16 seed last year, falling by 20 — 20! — points to UMBC. But it still feels like an inevitability that Virginia will one day win a regional. The Cavaliers have just been too successful year after year, absolutely owning the ACC. Will it finally happen this year?