Sweet 16: Usual suspects plus a few underdogs
Preseason rankings tend to focus on schools from the major conferences to the exclusion of most, if not all, of the top mid-majors. But with Butler and VCU having reached the Final Four last season, Newsday's Sweet 16 attempts to account for the mid-major programs most likely to advance to the second week of the tournament, along with the usual suspects:
1 NORTH CAROLINA
Conference: ACC
Last season: 29-8, 14-2 conf.
Postseason: Lost to Kentucky, 76-69, in Elite Eight.
Coach: Roy Williams (ninth year, 225-62).
Preseason poll: 1st AP.
Returning starters: 5 (Harrison Barnes, John Henson, Kendall Marshall, Dexter Strickland, Tyler Zeller).
Newcomer to watch: James McAdoo, a 6-9 freshman F, was MVP of McDonald's All-American game and Jordan Brand Classic.
Outlook: The Tar Heels won 17 of final 20 last season; Barnes began to realize his potential, and Kendall Marshall took over at PG. Return of all five starters, including the 7-0 Zeller, plus the addition of freshman scoring threats McAdoo and P.J. Hairston make UNC the deepest of all the top national contenders. It's on Williams to make sure UNC achieves its potential.
Conference: Big East.
Last season: 32-9, 9-9 conf.
Postseason: Won NCAA title over Butler, 53-41.
Coach: Jim Calhoun (26th year, 607-230).
Outlook: Huskies lost PG Kemba Walker but added 6-11, 275-pound top recruit Andre Drummond; All-America candidate Jeremy Lamb leads four returning starters.
3 OHIO STATE
Conference: Big Ten.
Last season: 34-3, 16-2 conf.
Postseason: Lost to Kentucky, 62-60, in Sweet 16.
Coach: Thad Matta (eighth year, 190-57).
Outlook: Post man Jared Sullinger is leading player of the year candidate; Buckeyes add 6-11 freshman shot-blocker Amir Williams, return G William Buford.
4 KENTUCKY
Conference: SEC.
Last season: 29-9, 10-6 conf.
Postseason: Lost in Final Four to Connecticut, 56-55.
Coach: John Calipari (third year, 64-12).
Outlook: Soph F Terrence Jones, who bypassed NBA draft, is among three returning starters; top-rated frosh class includes 6-10 Anthony Davis, 6-7 Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, 6-2 Marcus Teague.
5 SYRACUSE
Conference: Big East
Last season: 27-8, 12-6 conf.
Postseason: Lost to Marquette, 66-62, in NCAA round of 32.
Coach: Jim Boeheim (36th year, 856-301).
Outlook: Seniors Kris Joseph and Scoop Jardine and junior Brandon Triche are double-figure scorers; Orange are super-sized, including 6-9 frosh Rakeem Christmas.
6 VANDERBILT
Conference: SEC
Last season: 23-11, 9-7 conf.
Postseason: Lost to Richmond, 69-66, NCAA round of 64.
Coach: Kevin Stallings (13th year, 236-148).
Outlook: All-American G candidate John Jenkins heads five returning starters; add 6-11 redshirt frosh Josh Henderson and top-40 recruit Dai-Jon Parker.
7 BAYLOR
Conference: Big 12
Last season: 18-13, 7-9 conf.
Postseason: None.
Coach: Scott Drew (ninth year, 127-116).
Outlook: Bears underachieved but return powerful cast of 6-11 F Perry Jones III, 6-7 F Quincy Acy, 6-10 F Anthony Jones; add 6-9 Quincy Miller, potential NBA lottery pick.
8 XAVIER
Conference: Atlantic 10
Last season: 24-8, 15-1 conf.
Postseason: Lost to Marquette, 66-55, NCAA round of 64.
Coach: Chris Mack (third year, 50-17).
Outlook: Hempstead's Tu Holloway, A-10 player of year, returns with double-figure scorers Kenny Frease and Mark Lyons plus three-point shooter Brad Redford.
9 MEMPHIS
Conference: Conference USA
Last season: 25-10, 10-6 conf.
Postseason: Lost to Arizona, 77-75, NCAA round of 64,
Coach: Josh Pastner (third year, 49-20).
Outlook: Tigers have six returnees with starting experience, topped by soph Gs Will Barton and Joe Jackson and soph F Tarik Black. Frosh wing man Adonis Thomas is an NBA draft candidate.
10 DUKE
Conference: ACC
Last season: 32-5, 13-3.
Postseason: Lost to Arizona, 93-77, NCAA round of 16.
Coach: Mike Krzyzewski (32nd year, 827-225).
Outlook: Lost No. 1 draft pick Kyrie Irving plus All-ACC Nolan Smith and Kyle Singler but re- turns backcourt of Seth Curry, Andre Dawkins and gets top frosh guard Austin Rivers.
11 PITT
Conference: Big East
Last season: 28-6, 15-3 conf.
Postseason: Lost to Butler, 71-70, in NCAA round of 32.
Coach: Jamie Dixon (ninth year, 216-60).
Outlook: Three-point marksman Ashton Gibbs (49%) and F Nasir Robinson return; Brentwood F J.J. Moore ready for breakout; Panthers add touted frosh F Khem Birch.
12 ALABAMA
Conference: SEC
Last season: 25-12, 12-4 conf.
Postseason: Lost to Wichita State, 66-57, NIT final.
Coach: Anthony Grant (third year, 42-27).
Outlook: Soft schedule kept Bama out of the NCAA, but returning double-figure men Ja- Mychal Green, Tony Mitchell and Trevor Rele- ford and frosh G Trevor Lacey change that.
13 FLORIDA
Conference: SEC
Last season: 29-8, 13-3 conf.
Postseason: Lost to Butler, 74-71, in OT in Elite Eight.
Coach: Billy Donovan (16th year, 360-147).
Outlook: Many project Gators higher but they lost starting frontcourt; return Gs Kenny Boy- nton, Erving Walker and add Rutgers transfer G Mike Rosario and frosh G Brad Beal.
14 TEMPLE
Conference: Atlantic 10
Last season: 26-8, 14-2 conf.
Postseason: Lost to San Diego St., 71-62, 2OT in NCAA round of 32.
Coach: Fran Dunphy (sixth year, 110-57)
Outlook: G Ramone Moore leads four returning double-figure scorers, plus 6-11 starting C Micheal Eric; frosh PG Will Cummings boosts strong backcourt.
15 GONZAGA
Conference: WCC
Last season: 25-10, 11-3 conf.
Postseason: Lost to BYU, 89-67, in NCAA round of 32.
Coach: Mark Few (13th year, 316-83).
Outlook: Zags let down after first-round blowout of St. John's but return 7-0 C Robert Sacre, F Elias Harris, 6-9 F/C Sam Dower and PG Marquise Carter.
16 IONA
Conference: Metro Atlantic
Last season: 25-12, 13-5 conf.
Postseason: Lost to Santa Clara, 76-69, in CIT final.
Coach: Tim Cluess (second year).
Outlook: Call it a homer pick, but Gaels added Arizona PG Momo Jones to great returning cast of Mike Glover, Scott Machado and Kyle Smith, all preseason All-MAAC picks. Just watch.
