Will a No. 16 seed ever win in the NCAA Tournament?

Before the madness got underway this March, the cruel numbers game of the NCAA tournament was crystal clear: the lower your seed, the lighter your travel bag should be.

Prior to 2012, only four No. 15 seeds had ever stunned a No. 2 seed. This year, that list grew to six.

But there's still one huge hurdle that has yet to be jumped: a No. 16 seed has never beaten a No. 1 seed.

Since the NCAA Tournament field expanded to 64 teams in 1985, there have been 112 games played between No. 1 seeds and No. 16 seeds:

- The point differential between the two teams has only been in single digits 12 times.

- The two closest margins of victory came in 1989. No. 1 Oklahoma beat No. 16 East Tennessee State, 72-71, on March 16. A day later, No. 1 Georgetown beat No. 16 Princeton, 50-49.

- Of the 12 differentials of nine points or less, eight came between 1985-1990. Three came between 1996-1997.

- Since March 13, 1997, only one No. 16 seed has lost by single digits, and that came this year; No. 1 Syracuse beat No. 16 UNC Asheville, 72-65, on March 15.

Nearly any way you break down the numbers, things aren't getting any easier for the little guy. A look at the average point differential in a 1 vs. 16 matchup by decade:

1980s: 18.2 points

1990s: 27.8 points

2000s: 26.4 points

2010-12: 22.8 points

- The average point differential for the entire 112 games is 25.02. The lowest average point differential for any one year is 10.5 in 1989. There were seven other years when the differential was below 20 points, most recently in 2012 (15.75).

-There have been eight years when the point differential was above 30.

Given these numbers, it doesn't look like a Tournament-shattering upset is due anytime soon. But you don't have to be insane to think it could happen some day. It's not called March Madness for nothing.

"The Numbers Game" is a Newsday app-only exclusive.