Kirk Herbstreit: Heisman Trophy race as wide open as ever
Alabama running back Derrick Henry walks off the field after a 31-6 win over Mississippi State at Davis Wade Stadium on Nov. 14, 2015 in Starkville, Miss. Credit: Getty Images / Kevin C. Cox
Just a few weeks ago, Leonard Fournette appeared to be running away with the Heisman Trophy. LSU's sophomore running back had put up monster numbers, including three straight games with more than 200 rushing yards. And he was doing it all despite playing one less game than every other contender.
Then Alabama happened, and with the regular season winding down, the race for the Heisman is now, well, a race.
"I've been doing this a long time," ESPN college football analyst Kirk Herbstreit told Newsday on Wednesday during a call to promote Allstate's It's Good Sweepstakes. "I don't know if I ever remember, with just three weeks of football left, it being this wide open."
Fournette's dismal outing against the Crimson Tide - 19 carries, 31 yards, one touchdown - put a huge damper on his hopes. To make it even more interesting, Fournette's Alabama counterpart - Derrick Henry - ran for 210 yards and three touchdowns on 38 carries in the win.
"He kind of became the name everybody talked about," Herbstreit said of Henry, who has 1,458 rushing yards and 19 touchdowns on 240 carries.
With the finalists announcement a little more than two weeks away, who does Herbstreit think is the current favorite?
"Derrick Henry is probably in the lead, but I think you have guys like [Ezekiel] Elliott at Ohio State, who's had a great year but hasn't had a chance against good competition or hasn't had a chance on a big stage," Herbstreit said. "He'll be afforded that in the next few weeks [playing Michigan State and Michigan], so we'll see if he can take advantage of that."
Elliott has run for 100 or more yards in 15 straight games dating to last season and has 220 carries for 1,425 yards and 16 touchdowns.
Herbstreit also picked a pair of quarterbacks who have led their teams to unbeaten seasons. The first: Clemson's Deshaun Watson, who has thrown for 2,593 yards and 23 touchdowns and run for 598 yards and five more scores while leading the Tigers to the top of the College Football Playoff rankings.
"Really, a key component to why I think they're sitting where they are is his leadership ability and ability to make plays," Herbstreit said.
The other quarterback Herbstreit will be watching: Oklahoma's Baker Mayfield, who has completed 217 of 309 passes for 3,082 yards, 31 touchdowns and five interceptions.
"I think last weekend, the way he played on the road at Baylor, caught the nation's eye," Herbstreit said. "And now all of a sudden Oklahoma is ranked up in the top seven, probably trending as well as anybody in the country, he all of a sudden becomes a guy that people are paying attention to."
As for which of those four will win the Heisman, Herbstreit thinks it's pretty simple.
"Whoever gets hot in these last three weeks," he said, "will probably be the guy that ends up winning the trophy."
Nick Klopsis is Newsday.com's sports editor. He often can be found studying NFL and college football film for his latest draft breakdown.
