3 takeaways from St. John's first 10 games of the season
St. John’s head coach Rick Pitino during the first half against DePaul at Carnesecca Arena on Tuesday. Credit: Newsday/J. Conrad Williams Jr.
St. John’s returned four players, including Big East preseason Player of the Year Zuby Ejiofor, from a 31-win team, brought in the nation’s top-rated transfer class, according to 247sports.com, and opened the season as the No. 5 team in the country.
Red Storm coach Rick Pitino handed the group one of the toughest schedules a Storm team has faced. And, after 10 games, they are ranked 22nd and stand at 7-3 and 1-0 in the Big East after downing DePaul on Tuesday night at Carnesecca Arena.
St. John’s went up against three teams that also were nationally ranked and went 0-3, losing by one point to No. 4 Iowa State, seven to No. 15 Alabama and 11 to No. 21 Auburn.
The Storm has wins over Baylor and Ole Miss — both in high major conferences — and is on a three-game winning streak as it goes into its final two non-conference games. St. John's plays Kentucky in the CBS Sports Classic on Saturday at Atlanta’s State Farm Arena and hosts Harvard at Carnesecca Arena in its last game on campus before playing the rest of its home games at the Garden.
Here are three takeaways from the Red Storm’s first 10 games of the season:
1. The metrics situation is a real conundrum
The NCAA Tournament selection committee weighs a lot in selecting and seeding it 68-team field, including a series of metrics. St. John’s looks pretty good right now in a lot of ways. It looks bad in a few. Its opportunities to change those perspectives currently appear limited.
One thing is certain: A win against Kentucky on Saturday has the potential to pay a lot of dividends. Wins in the three games against ranked teams might have done that. Now there is one opportunity left because the Wildcats, who have played substandard while dealing with injuries, could become a powerhouse once they are healthy.
First, the good news: St. John’s is ranked No. 18 on metrics-centered Kenpom.com and is one of a handful of programs that rank in its top 25 in both adjusted offense and adjusted defense. In the NET rankings, which fluctuate based on how a team and its opponents performs, it is No. 25, down one spot after beating the Blue Demons. And of course there are the national rankings.
Now the bad news: The Red Storm, based on current NET rankings, have limited opportunities to send those numbers higher because the Big East teams have fared poorly in non-conference play. No. 5 Connecticut is the only Big East team on that list and has won several high-profile non-conference games.
As it stands — and it could change if another Big East team wins significant games, or loses them — the Storm has only five Quad 1 games left on its regular-season schedule: the two against UConn and road games against Butler, Villanova and Seton Hall (and who knows if those teams can maintain their current success). There are seven Quad 3 and Quad 4 games, and St. John’s cannot afford to lose any of them.
No one thinks that the Storm will miss the NCAA Tournament. But they are going to play a lot of games with a lot of pressure on their positioning, including every home game at the Garden.
2. It’s a better offensive team than a year ago, but defense may still be the key
Last season, St. John’s had to overcome its offensive deficiencies by being the second-ranked team in the country in defensive efficiency and by being a monster rebounding team. Those flaws were the reasons Pitino focused on offensively talented players from the transfer portal.
And this season’s team has shown that it can really score. The Storm is averaging 88 points on 48% shooting, including 35% on three-point attempts. Last year, St. John’s averaged 79 points on 45% shooting and 30% on three-point shots.
Oziyah Sellers is a revelation after making 44% of his three-point shots, and Pitino wants him to take more of them. Joson Sanon makes 43% beyond the arc and is beginning to feel free to take more. The outside shooting is no longer a weakness.
The Red Storm may be able to pile up the points, but the strategy of simply outscoring opponents hasn’t worked. Pitino has had offensively talented teams throughout his career, but he has always had a defense-first philosophy and he is trying to get this group to adopt it. The last three wins — probably their three best defensive games — may have driven it home. Success does wonders for a team.
3. Among the new players, Sanon could make the biggest impact
Sanon doesn’t get as much attention as Ian Jackson among the two sophomore transfers, but he is fearless about taking a shot. And he has heeded Pitino’s calls for the guards to provide a rebounding advantage.
Sanon is averaging 10.6 points and has grabbed seven rebounds over the past two games. He is growing more confident with success.
“Joson's really gotten a lot better defensively [and] rebounding,” Pitino said. “He can score. He can shoot. He can put it on the floor. He can pass. He probably, skill-wise, has the most skills on the team.”
Roger Rubin returned to Newsday in 2018 to write about high schools, colleges and baseball following 20 years at the Daily News. A Baseball Hall of Fame voter since 2011, he has covered 13 MLB postseasons and 14 NCAA Final Fours.
