Super Bowl LIV: Here's why the Chiefs will win

 MIAMI

The torch has been passed .  .  . most likely for good.

Super Bowl Sundays have been dominated by just a handful of quarterbacks for the better part of two decades, with the names Brady, Manning or Roethlisberger collectively owning the most hallowed day of football. For 16 of the last 18 years, one of those names has appeared on the back of the jersey of a Super Bowl quarterback.

Not this year. And maybe not ever again.

It now is Patrick Mahomes, whose star burns brightly as the NFL’s most dynamic playmaking quarterback, against Jimmy Garoppolo, the one-time understudy to the most accomplished quarterback in NFL history, in Super Bowl LIV.

No Tom Brady, who is going on 42 and isn’t certain whether he’ll be back in New England. No Peyton or Eli Manning, both of whom are retired. And no Ben Roethlisberger, who will try to return from a reconstructed elbow in 2020 but might never be the same.

Brady took the Patriots to their first of nine Super Bowl appearances in 2001, a remarkable run of greatness that may never be equaled. The brothers Manning have a combined five Super Bowl Sundays to their names. Roethlisberger has three.

But it is a new era and a new set of quarterbacks ready to create their own Super Bowl legacies.

Starting today.

It is Mahomes’ time.

It is the Chiefs’ time.

As we prepare for the season’s final game, the feeling here is the same as it was before the season’s first game: The Chiefs will win Super Bowl LIV.

Mahomes is simply so good, his supporting cast on offense is so deep and so talented, and the Chiefs’ defense is so reliable that it all points to a win over the 49ers. A resounding win.

Fifty years after Len Dawson and Hank Stram led the Chiefs to their only Super Bowl victory, Mahomes and Andy Reid will add another Vince Lombardi Trophy. It may not be the start of a dynasty as long-lasting as the Patriots, but the 24-year-old Mahomes surely will be capable of playing on Super Bowl Sundays for years.

It starts now.

Here’s how and why:

The quarterback

Mahomes’ ascent is simply remarkable. Once considered a risk by some NFL teams because it was thought that his training in the “Air Raid” offense at Texas Tech might impede his ability to adapt to a more conventional pro-style system, Mahomes has done an incredible job.

He played only one game as a rookie in 2017, but his apprenticeship as Alex Smith’s understudy proved to be a critical learning period.

“The person that he was, he taught me a ton,” Mahomes said of Smith, who was traded to the Redskins in 2018. “How to go about the week and game plan, how to read coverages. He gave me little tips about how to read the front to see who is blitzing. Little things I learned were invaluable. It’s stuff that can take you your full career to learn and he taught me that in my first year.”

Said Reid, “I joke about it, but it’s true. Patrick couldn’t pay Alex enough for what he gave him with that experience.”

Mahomes had one of the greatest seasons of any first-year NFL starter, throwing 50 touchdown passes in 2018 and becoming a runaway pick as Most Valuable Player. He staged a remarkable comeback against Brady’s Patriots in the AFC Championship Game and forced overtime with a 24-point burst in the fourth quarter. But the Chiefs succumbed in overtime, 37-31, to the eventual Super Bowl champions.

Mahomes has orchestrated two more comebacks in this year’s playoffs, leading the Chiefs to a 51-31 win over the Texans in the divisional round and a 35-24 win over Tennessee in the AFC title game.

It won’t be easy against the 49ers, who have gone old-school in the playoffs, relying on the ground game and a punishing defense. That defense will prove to be the biggest challenge for Mahomes, because the 49ers’ defensive line might be the best in the game. Led by rookie Nick Bosa and former Chiefs edge rusher Dee Ford, the 49ers have shut down the Vikings’ Kirk Cousins and Packers great Aaron Rodgers in the playoffs.

The biggest issue for Mahomes is San Francisco’s pass rush, and there’s no denying that the path to victory for the 49ers lies in their ability to shut him down. The 49ers lead the NFL in total defense in the playoffs, allowing 252.5 yards per game, and were second to the Patriots in the regular season, allowing 281.8 yards.

But Mahomes presents a unique challenge to the 49ers, and there is every reason to believe he can answer their pass rush with his nimble movement in the pocket.

One of Mahomes’ best attributes is his scrambling ability. He prefers to run from danger and get the ball downfield, but he won’t hesitate to carry the ball. Look no further than his 27-yard touchdown run against the Titans near the end of the first half in the AFC title game, when he sprinted left and managed to stay in bounds before cutting to his right and muscling through two defenders for the go-ahead score.

Quite simply, Mahomes is the biggest single factor in the game. If he puts on a show, chances are the Chiefs win; if not, the 49ers will have at least a chance.

The head coach

Reid has the dubious distinction of winning more regular-season games — 207 — without a championship than any other coach in NFL history. All six coaches ahead of him on that list have won at least one title. Reid is on a short list for the Hall of Fame, and a win over the 49ers almost certainly would send him there.

Reid is one of the great offensive minds, and his unique ability to pick apart a defense is a big reason for the Chiefs’ success. He’s the perfect coach for Mahomes; Reid is willing to let his quarterback’s natural ability flow without needlessly limiting him in the system.

Reid also has become a master at taking advantage of extra time to prepare for an opponent. Consider: He is 18-3 in the regular season after a bye week, including this season’s 40-9 win over the Raiders in Week 13. He’s 4-2 after a playoff bye, with one loss that has haunted him: 24-21 to the Patriots in Super Bowl XXXIX.

But there’s an important distinction this time: Donovan McNabb was a terrific quarterback in Reid’s system in Philadelphia, but Reid can do so much more with Mahomes. There is no throw Mahomes can’t make. And though McNabb had good mobility, Mahomes’ ability to escape pressure is elite. He also is a more accurate passer with better arm strength.

The combination of Reid and Mahomes is about as good as it gets now that the Brady-Bill Belichick pairing is out of Super Bowl contention.

Reid’s adjustments have been brilliant in the playoffs. After the Texans raced to a 24-0 lead early in the second quarter in the divisional round, Reid loosened things up for Mahomes in the passing game, and the result was seven straight touchdown drives. In the AFC title game, the Titans did everything right in the first half, keeping Mahomes off the field. But Reid figured out Tennessee’s defense, and the Titans had no chance in the second half.

The offensive options

What makes the Chiefs so dangerous is not only Mahomes but arguably the best set of skill position players in the NFL. There is speed and there is reliability. And versatility.

Tyreek Hill might be the fastest receiver in the game. Wideout Sammy Watkins has shown big-play ability. Tight end Travis Kelce is one of the best in the business. Wide receiver Mecole Hardman was drafted as insurance against the Chiefs losing Hill in the event of a long-term suspension over domestic abuse allegations.

If Mahomes doesn’t get you one way, he’ll get you another. And Reid’s ability to respond to a defense gives the Chiefs a major advantage.

The 49ers’ secondary, led by Richard Sherman, is impressive. But the Chiefs can adapt to coordinator Robert Saleh’s coverages, and unless Mahomes turns the ball over consistently — something he has avoided in nearly every game of his career — then it’s advantage Chiefs.

In addition to the Chiefs’ cast of skill position players, their offensive line has been consistently good this season. This unit, with bookend tackles Eric Fisher and Mitchell Schwartz, will have its work cut out against the 49ers’ deep and talented defensive line. But the Chiefs should be up to the challenge.

A capable defense

If Reid has one fault, it’s a stubborn loyalty to his coaches, even when one of them underachieves. Case in point: his unwillingness to part ways with defensive coordinator Bob Sutton. Last year’s AFC title game was the last straw, and Reid had no choice but to replace Sutton. In came former Giants defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo, who performed so brilliantly during Big Blue’s 2007 Super Bowl season.

Under Spagnuolo, the Chiefs have become a much more dynamic and impactful defense. With the 2007 Giants, Spagnuolo’s brilliance kicked in after his defense surrendered 80 points in an 0-2 start. With the Chiefs, it came with nine sacks of the Broncos during a 30-6 win in October.

“I don’t like to say that sacks are the be-all and end-all, but when your players have that type of game, I think they start to believe in themselves more,” Spagnuolo said.

They also started believing more in their coach, who is one win away from a second career Super Bowl as a team’s first-year defensive coordinator.

Reid also should be credited for his work with general manager Brett Veach in remaking a good deal of the defense. Two players, in particular, have been keys to the defensive resurgence: end Frank Clark and safety Tyrann Mathieu.

Clark has been the team’s most reliable pass rusher (he ended the Titans’ chances with a late sack) and Mathieu has injected veteran leadership in the secondary. He is a big-time player who seems to revel in being on the big stage.

Put it all together, and the Chiefs have that look of a champion. They’ve got the talent, they’ve got the quarterback and they’ve got the coach.

L years after winning Super Bowl IV, they’re ready to win Super Bowl LIV.

By Bob Glauber

Special to NewsdayBobGlauber

Bob Glauber retired in 2022 after covering the NFL for nearly 40 years. He was selected in 2021 for the Bill Nunn Career Achievement Award by the Pro Football Writers of America, and is a three-time winner of the New York State Sportswriter of the Year by the National Sports Media Association. President of the PFWA for the 2018-20 seasons, he is the author of “The Forgotten First” and “Guts and Genius.”