What Tom Brady decides will have a big impact on free-agent market
Tom Brady of the Patriots looks on prior to the game against the Jets at Gillette Stadium on September 22, 2019. Credit: Getty Images/Adam Glanzman
The sports world shut down last week in response to the growing coronavirus pandemic, but it’s business as usual in the NFL.
At least for now.
The NFL’s league year is scheduled to begin on Wednesday, when teams can begin signing unrestricted free agents and embark on the painstaking roster construction process in advance of the 2020 regular season. But with events changing by the day — sometimes by the minute — there is a chance the league will delay the start of free agency.
At some point, though, the NFL’s landscape could undergo a significant makeover — all depending on what happens with Patriots quarterback Tom Brady. If Brady, who retooled his contract last year to become a free agent for the first time in his 21-year career, moves on from Bill Belichick and the only place he’s ever known in the NFL, then the dominoes will begin to fall.
If not, some sense of normalcy will remain in New England and teams such as the Titans, Buccaneers, Chargers, Raiders and possibly even the 49ers — the teams most often linked to Brady’s potential future whereabouts — either will maintain the status quo or look elsewhere at the most important position on their roster.
Only when Brady decides where he’s going will we see which direction some of the key moves take.
Brady and the Patriots have not given many hints about what might happen, although team owner Robert Kraft has said that Belichick will be the one to decide on behalf of the team. Kraft reportedly pressed Belichick to remain committed to Brady at the time Jimmy Garoppolo was traded to the 49ers in 2017, but this one is all up to Belichick.
Brady’s future whereabouts certainly will dominate the free-agency conversation, but there are plenty of other quarterbacks who will take center stage in the coming weeks.
Saints backup Teddy Bridgewater, who did fine work in the injury-related absence of Drew Brees, could be one of the most sought-after quarterbacks. If Brady leaves the Patriots, Bridgewater could be a possibility in New England. Philip Rivers, whose run in San Diego is over, also will draw interest, possibly from the Buccaneers if they can’t land Brady, or the Colts, who need an upgrade after the sudden retirement of Andrew Luck last year.
A host of other free agents perhaps are not marquee names who will demand top dollar but certainly are players who can provide help.
Need a capable veteran receiver? Take a look at 49ers wideout Emmanuel Sanders, who has been to Super Bowls with San Francisco and Denver.
Need a pass rusher coming off a Super Bowl appearance? Try Arik Armstead of the 49ers, a former first-round pick who has become one of the league’s most effective defenders. Or Shaq Barrett of the Buccaneers, who had a career-high 20 sacks last season.
Want a good tight end? Check out Eric Ebron of the Colts, who has resurrected his career after a disappointing run as a Lions first-round pick and might be viewed as a potential replacement for the recently retired Rob Gronkowski of the Patriots.
Yes, there is talent out there, and plenty of it. Just don’t expect it to be around very long, because the top end of the free-agent market usually is gone within a matter of days, leaving fewer prime options in the second and third waves of free-agent signings. But with the release of veteran players before their contracts are up, there generally are more options as the offseason continues.
Remember, too, that free agent spending will be impacted by whether or not the NFL Players Association approves an 11-year collective bargaining agreement. Voting ended at 11:59 p.m. Saturday. If the deal is approved, teams will likely be willing to spend more in free agency because the salary cap impact would be reduced. If the deal is rejected, then business might be slow. .
And then there’s the draft, which is set for next month in Las Vegas — although the league may be forced to scale back the event if the coronavirus situation worsens.
Look for teams to be careful on the free-agent market, because younger — and cheaper — alternatives will be available in the draft.
Colts general manager Chris Ballard offers the perfect example of how teams go about constructing their rosters and where the emphasis is put.
“Things don’t always go the way you want them to go, but we have a philosophy of how we’re going to build [the roster],” he said. “We want to be able to acquire young players and develop our own and develop them as Colts [through the draft]. Not saying that we won’t enter into free agency, because we have, but it won’t be our main source of player acquisition.”
Giants general manager Dave Gettleman goes by the theory that free agency can help set up your draft board.
“Unrestricted free agency put you in a position, hopefully if it works out for you, of taking the best player available [in the draft],” said Gettleman, who owns the No. 4 overall pick. “That’s what we’ll do.”
Packers general manager Brian Gutekunst stresses a deliberative method of team-building.
“I think the biggest thing is just going through our process, the self-evaluation, and then kind of getting into this process and seeing the landscape of free agency, the draft, and just getting prepared to make the decisions we’ve got to make for our football club,” he said. “So it’s always about bettering ourselves and trying to be a diverse enough team to compete with.”
The first step in that process is about to unfold — whether it’s this week or after a delayed opening to free agency.
The first player in that first step in the process is about to find out where he’ll be playing in 2020. And where Brady plays will determine where so many others will be playing.
Here we go.
Top 10 free agents available in 2020
Drew Brees, QB, Saints: After some reflection following the Saints’ first-round playoff ouster, the 41-year-old Brees has decided to return for at least the 2020 season. There’s little chance he plays anywhere but New Orleans, where he has been since 2006.
Dak Prescott, QB, Cowboys: The Cowboys want to keep Prescott long-term, but negotiations before the 2019 season went nowhere. Even so, Jerry Jones rarely loses a player he wants to keep, and it’s tough to see Prescott playing elsewhere.
Tom Brady, QB, Patriots: Is this the end of the road in New England for the most accomplished player in NFL history? Brady insisted on earning his first shot at free agency, and there will be plenty of suitors, including the Raiders, Titans, Buccaneers, Chargers, Colts and, yes, Patriots.
Chris Jones, DT, Chiefs: The Chiefs’ best player on the defensive front was a key part of their Super Bowl run last season, but Kansas City is being squeezed by salary-cap considerations and might decide to apply the franchise tag and keep Jones for at least the 2020 season. The Colts, Saints, Seahawks and Cardinals could be interested, and a trade isn’t out of the question.
Byron Jones, CB, Cowboys: Jones is by far the biggest draw among this year’s free-agent defensive backs, and he’ll have plenty of teams from which to choose, including the Giants, Browns, Eagles, Raiders and Texans.
Amari Cooper, WR, Cowboys: He flourished with the Cowboys in 2018 after being traded from the Raiders for a first-round pick but wasn’t quite as dynamic last season. The Cowboys are interested in keeping him, but the Eagles and Bills are viable alternatives.
Yannick Ngakoue, DE, Jaguars: The Jaguars placed the franchise tag on their talented young pass rusher, but Ngakoue has expressed a desire to play elsewhere, so a trade remains possible. Among the teams looking for pass-rushing help: the Giants, Seahawks, Bills, Dolphins and Eagles.
Anthony Harris, S, Vikings: Mike Zimmer likes his versatile safety and will try to keep him in Minnesota, but the Vikings won’t get into a bidding war if other interested teams — including the Dolphins, Browns and Redskins — drive the price too high.
Jadeveon Clowney, DE, Seahawks: The Texans dealt Clowney to the Seahawks last season, and while he flashed the ability to dominate games, Clowney also underachieved the way he’d done too often in Houston. Still, pass rushers are coveted, so the Giants, Cowboys, Ravens, Patriots and Titans — as well as the Seahawks — could show interest.
Jack Conklin, T, Titans: The former first-round tackle wasn’t re-signed by the Titans, making him one of the most coveted linemen on the open market. Tennessee is still interested in keeping him at the right price, but Conklin should draw interest from the Giants, Jets, Seahawks and Browns.
— BOB GLAUBER
Bob Glauber retired in 2022 after covering the NFL for nearly 40 years. He was selected in 2021 for the Bill Nunn Career Achievement Award by the Pro Football Writers of America, and is a three-time winner of the New York State Sportswriter of the Year by the National Sports Media Association. President of the PFWA for the 2018-20 seasons, he is the author of “The Forgotten First” and “Guts and Genius.”
