How long can Patriots quarterback Tom Brady outrun time?

New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady #12 runs drills during pre game warmups at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford NJ on Aug 30, 2018. Credit: Daniel De Mato
He is the most accomplished player in NFL history, a man who has one Super Bowl ring for every finger on his throwing hand, four Super Bowl MVP awards and three regular-season MVP awards. He is about to stand alone at the top of the list of NFL wins.
The greatest player of all time? No argument here.
Yet for all of Tom Brady’s spectacular body of work, the issue remains: He's 41. How much longer can he continue to dominate a league he has owned for the last 17 seasons?
There have been precious few indications of any diminution of his skills, and any previous speculation that Brady was about to go into a steep and undeniable decline have been answered with some of his most spectacular results.
Remember that 2-2 start last year, when Brady was outplayed by Alex Smith and Cam Newton in losses to the Chiefs and Panthers? He responded with some of his best work in reeling off 11 wins in the final 12 games and getting to the Super Bowl for the eighth time, the most for any player in NFL history. Had it not been for the Patriots’ pathetic showing on defense, Brady would have won an unprecedented sixth Super Bowl ring.
But there have been some unsettling signs of late, and a knee injury he suffered in a 34-10 drubbing in Tennessee on Nov. 11 has raised at least mild concern. Brady appeared on the team’s injury report during the week for the first time this season, and he did not appear for at least the initial portion of the team’s Friday practice, which members of the media are allowed to attend.
Brady did not show for his scheduled interview session with reporters later in the day, raising yet another red flag.
Brady hasn’t missed a regular-season start because of injury since returning from an ACL tear suffered in the first game of the 2008 season. He’s not expected to miss Sunday’s game at MetLife Stadium as the 7-3 Patriots face the 3-7 Jets. A win over the Jets and an Indianapolis loss to Miami on Sunday, and Brady’s 231 regular-season and playoff wins will make him the all-time winningest player in NFL history (he's tied with Colts kicker and former teammate Adam Vinatieri).
Nevertheless, some aspects of Brady's game have been troubling. He didn’t throw a touchdown pass against the Titans, the second time in three games he was held without one. He has thrown only one touchdown pass in his last three games, the first time he has gone that long with only one TD pass since the 2013 season (the time before that was 2006). Factor in the knee problem and his limited participation in practice during the week, and there is at least some foreboding — if not outward angst — about what lies ahead.
In the unlikely event Brady can’t go, he’ll be replaced by Brian Hoyer, who rejoined the team last year after the Patriots traded longtime Brady understudy Jimmy Garoppolo to the 49ers.
“You’ve got to focus on doing your job, and when there’s not a player like [Brady] in – because he runs the offense and everything – you’ve just got to be more alert and more aware and just got to make sure you’re on top of your job and your assignment and everything,” Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski said Friday. “Because no lie, he knows the playbook inside and out, basically every position, so if he’s not in there, you’ve just got to make sure you know what you’re doing, your knowledge and do your job.”
In typical fashion, coach Bill Belichick declined to speculate about Brady’s availability, so there were no hints from the coach about whether Brady might miss the game or be limited because of his knee problem.
But Belichick did acknowledge the importance of communication from the quarterback position, something Brady has excelled at over the years. It’s especially important in terms of execution on the offensive line.
“It’s a critical communication piece, the quarterback and the center or the quarterback and the offensive line, because the quarterback really controls the receivers,” Belichick said. “The offensive line doesn’t talk to the receivers and the tight ends about their patterns and so forth. So that communication between the offensive line and the quarterback, and then the quarterback to the receivers, that all has to be tied in together. They’re all problems that are solvable, but you have to have 11 guys doing the right thing.”
Belichick also doesn’t get into sweeping pronouncements about the state of Brady’s game, but surely the coach knows there are problems with the operation. Brady has thrown only 17 touchdown passes and seven interceptions, an acceptable total for a middle-of-the-road quarterback but certainly not one of Brady’s caliber. Fourteen quarterbacks have more touchdown throws; the Chiefs' Patrick Mahomes has more than double that total.
Brady has had lulls before, but they generally have come early in the season when the offense is finding its way. Part of his problem this year has been a lack of big-time targets at receiver. Danny Amendola is gone, having signed a free-agent deal with the Dolphins. The Patriots traded speedy wideout Brandin Boldin to the Rams in the offseason. Former Browns receiver Josh Gordon was acquired in a September trade, but he still is adjusting to the offense. Gronkowski has missed three games and has only 29 catches and one touchdown.
Brady has almost always raised the level of play of those around him, one of the many indications of his greatness. But he has been hard-pressed to reach his usual level of production.
We’ve seen enough examples over the years not to predict the imminent demise of the career of the most decorated quarterback in NFL history, and we’re not about to suggest the end is near.
But we’re also mindful that no matter how much longer Brady believes he can play at a championship level, there is one opponent who ultimately will conquer him.
Father Time is undefeated.
Now it’s just a matter of how long Brady can outrun him.
MILESTONE WATCH
· + Tom Brady needs 147 passing yards against the Jets to move past Peyton Manning (79,279 yards) to become the NFL’s all-time leader in total passing yards in the regular season and playoffs combined.
· + Brady has 230 career wins in the regular season and playoffs, tying him with former Patriots teammate and current Colts kicker Adam Vinatieri. A win by the Patriots over the Jets and a loss by the Colts to Miami will give Brady the most career wins by any player in NFL history.
· + With three touchdown passes, Brady will tie Manning (579) for the most touchdown passes in NFL history (regular season and playoffs combined).
· + Brady needs four rushing yards to reach 1,000 for his career. It has only taken him 18 seasons as the Patriots’ starter to get there.
