A look at how MLB's free-agent roster upgrades have fared in 2025
Max Fried #54 of the New York Yankees looks on after an inning against the San Diego Padres at Yankee Stadium on Wednesday, May 7, 2025. Credit: Jim McIsaac
Now that the MLB regular season has reached the midpoint between Opening Day and the July 31 trade deadline, with 60-plus games (and more than 40%) of the schedule already in the books, we’re not dealing in small sample sizes anymore. So what better time to analyze the winter’s most significant roster upgrades, to see whose decisions have paid off so far -- or, regrettably, those teams that flushed a big pile of their offseason cash on a big swing and miss.
As usual, there are plenty of both. The Mets’ 15-year, $765 million contract for Juan Soto dominated the winter free-agent discussion, and even now that he’s permanently anchored in Flushing, the debate over his on-field performance (in relation to his record salary) rages unabated. But it only seems like Soto raked in all the money. In total, clubs spent more than $5 billon on free agents last offseason, and a number of them are still waiting for an appropriate return on the investment -- and could be doing so for an uncomfortably long period.
Friday’s stunning revelation that Corbin Burnes will undergo Tommy John surgery only two months into his six-year, $210 million deal with the Diamondbacks is the most alarming headline to date. But there’s been plenty more drama involving the 2025 free-agent class, so here’s a rundown of where the highest-paid top 16 rate, listed according to size of contract with their accumulated WAR (according to Fangraphs). Statistics are through Friday.
1. Juan Soto ... Mets ... RF ... 15 yrs, $765M ... (1.2 WAR)
By now, everyone on the planet knows that Soto’s transition to Flushing from the Bronx has been a bumpy one, and until recently, he looked like a totally different hitter from the guy who finished third for AL MVP wearing pinstripes a year ago. But the Shuffle finally reappeared toward the end of May and the numbers have followed as Soto’s first three-hit Mets game Friday put him at .318/.531/.773 for the past week (he was up to 11 HRs and 31 RBIs overall).
2. Max Fried ... Yankees ... SP ... 8 yrs, $218M ... (2.1 WAR)
Fried was the first box the Yankees checked in their Soto Pivot, but rather than secure a co-ace for Gerrit Cole, they instead got a co-MVP for Aaron Judge, as he’s quickly outpitched his $27.25M salary for this season. Through Friday, Fried was 8-1 in 13 starts and his 1.78 ERA ranked fourth in the majors to go with a 0.94 WHIP (9th) and .195 OBA (9th). Fried also was 6-0 with 0.57 ERA in his six starts after a Yankees’ loss. A reliable stopper that’s worth every penny.
3. Corbin Burnes ... Diamondbacks ... SP ... 6 yrs, $210M ... (0.6 WAR)
Unfortunately for Burnes, when it comes to cautionary tales involving free-agent starting pitchers, he just shot to the top of that list. Arizona was credited for ponying up the big-boy cash to secure Burnes, considered the top prize in the starter market, pitched to a 2.66 ERA in 11 starts but never really looked like his dominant self, with velocity down across the board and an elevated walk rate. The Orioles, in an otherwise miserable season, have to be relieved that Burnes didn’t take their four-year, $180 million over.
4. Blake Snell ... Dodgers ... SP ... 5 yrs, $182M ... (0.0 WAR)
He didn’t waste any time agreeing to the Dodgers’ offer in November after his late-March signing the previous season, and with L.A.’s recent history of dinged-up rotations, jumping the market for the two-time Cy Young winner felt like a coup for the defending world champs. But Snell, coming off an injury-shortened 20-start campaign for the Giants, made just two this season (total of nine innings) before being sidelined with what’s turning out to be nagging shoulder inflammation. A return date remains uncertain.
5. Willy Adames ... Giants ... SS ... 7 yrs, $182M ... (minus-0.1 WAR)
Adames was the high-motor, highly-performing shortstop that fueled small-market Milwaukee’s annual bid for contention, so when the offensively-challenged Giants needed a two-way threat, he figured to be a solid investment. But their early success has been in spite of Adames, who was hitting .195 with a .591 OPS that ranks 155th out of 166 qualified players. A Gold Glover in 2023, his defense also has been terrible, with a minus-8 defensive runs saved that is dead-last among MLB shortstops.
6. Alex Bregman ... Red Sox ... 3B ... 3 yrs, $120M ... (2.5 WAR)
Bregman felt like the perfect fit for the supposedly on-the-rise Red Sox, who gave him a whopping $40 million salary with multiple opt-outs. Other than irritating Rafael Devers, who lost his third-base job the former Astro, it was working out pretty well, as Bregman was hitting .299 with 11 homers, 32 RBIs and a .938 OPS (9th in MLB). But now that he’s on the IL with a severe quad strain, Boston’s shot at contention is likely to be long over by the time he returns.
7. Anthony Santander ... Blue Jays ... LF ... 5 yrs, $92.5 M ... (minus-0.8)
One of these days, perhaps with a new front-office, Toronto is going to get this free-agent thing figured out. But in the meantime, add Santander to their long losing streak, as he’s been a major disappointment, hitting .179 with six homers, 18 RBIs and a .577 OPS that’s the seventh-worst in MLB (he’s now on the IL with a hip issue). Just a reminder, Santander had 44 HRs and 102 RBIs last season with an .814 OPS in his contract year.
8. Nathan Eovaldi ... Rangers ... SP ... 3 yrs, $75M ... (2.2 WAR)
At the time, this contract felt like a steal for a proven stud like Eovaldi -- even at the age of 35 -- and was proving that to be the case before landing on the IL with a triceps issue. His .808 WHIP through 12 starts leads the majors, his 1.56 ERA was second only to the Royals’ Kris Bubic (1.43) and his 9.5 K/9 rate is the highest since 2021. If Texas falls out of the race, Eovaldi could be an attractive trade chip.
9. Sean Manaea ... Mets ... SP ... 3 yrs, $75M ... (DNP)
Manaea counted as the winter’s big pitching splurge for president of baseball ops David Stearns, who is averse to writing huge checks for the most fragile commodity in the game, so the fact he’s yet to pitch due to a spring-training oblique injury hasn’t derailed the first-place Mets. Still, what was initially viewed as a below-market deal for the anchor of a playoff rotation (3.47 ERA in 32 starts) is becoming much less of a bargain until Manaea shows otherwise.
10. Tanner Scott ... Dodgers ... RP ... 4 yrs, $72M ... (0.6 WAR)
Scott’s $18 million annual salary ties him with Liam Hendriks for the third-highest AAV for a relief pitcher in free-agent history, trailing only Edwin Diaz ($20.4) and Josh Hader ($19M). But as one of the Dodgers’ few imported closers still healthy, Scott got off to a bumpy start with a 4.40 ERA and an MLB-high five blown saves in 16 chances.
11. Luis Severino ... Athletics ... SP ... 3 yrs, $67M ... (1.6 WAR)
The Mets chose Manaea over Severino, who wanted to return to Flushing and instead took the biggest free-agent contract in A’s franchise history. While staying healthy has always been the key to Severino’s success, the biggest pain for him this season is hitter-friendly Sutter Health Park. Severino has a 6.99 ERA and an opposing .787 OPS in eight starts at the Sacramento Triple-A facility as compared to an 0.87 ERA and .461 OPS in five road starts.
12. Teoscar Hernandez ... Dodgers ... RF ... 3 yrs, $66M ... (0.6 WAR)
Hernandez flipped last season’s one-year, $23.5 million deal into a more lucrative longer-term contract to stay with LA, and other than a two-week stint on the IL with a groin strain, the Dodgers’ cleanup hitter has performed as advertised by batting .272 (same as a year ago) with 10 homers and a team-high 43 RBIs.
13. Yusei Kikuchi ... Angels ... SP ... 3 yrs, $63.7M ... (0.7 WAR)
The Angels moved quickly to anoint Kikuchi as their ace with this late November deal, but his 3.23 ERA and 1.59 WHIP (last among 77 qualified starters) has Kikuchi at 1-5 while the Angels are 6-7 in his 13 starts. Again proving that timing is everything, Kikuchi (a Scott Boras client) had a 2.70 ERA and 0.933 WHIP in 10 starts for the Astros last season after his trade from the Jays at the deadline.
14. Christian Walker ... Astros ... 1B ... 3 yrs, $60M ... (minus-0.1 WAR)
Walker had the benefit of both New York teams needing a first baseman over the winter. They each passed on him, and certainly have to feel great about doing so. The three-time Gold Glover has been a disaster at the plate, hitting .210 with a .632 OPS and a 28.2% strikeout rate that ranks 15th among 166 qualified players.
15. Nick Pivetta ... Padres ... SP ... 4 yrs, $55M ... (1.8 WAR)
Pivetta could have accepted the Red Sox’s one-year, $21.05 million qualifying offer, but he’d be stuck with a sinking team right now. Instead, the Padres got one of the winter’s better bargains with the mid-February signing and Pivetta is pitching like someone eying a bigger payday when he can opt out after the 2026 season (which would turn this into a two-year, $23 million deal). Pivetta was 6-2 with a 3.16 ERA in 12 starts for the Padres.
16. Pete Alonso ... Mets ... 1B ... 2 yrs, $54M ... (2.4 WAR)
Given the brinkmanship involved with the Mets and Alonso, it’s impossible to fathom what this season would’ve been like if the Polar Bear hadn’t returned to Queens on a face-saving deal that briefly gave him a record $30 million salary for first baseman in 2025. Alonso has put himself in the conversation for NL MVP by hitting .298 with 15 homers, an MLB-best 57 RBIs and a .977 OPS that ranks fifth overall, so he’ll be opting out after this season for another crack at free agency.
David Lennon is an award-winning columnist, a voter for baseball's Hall of Fame and has covered six no-hitters, including two perfect games.
