David Lennon: Time to evaluate MLB's offseason free-agent signings
The Yankees' Cody Bellinger watches his two-run home run against the Toronto Blue Jays at Yankee Stadium on May 18, 2026. Credit: Jim McIsaac
Now that Memorial Day is in MLB’s rearview mirror and the season is more than a third over — roughly 57 games in the book by this point — we’re past small sample sizes, which makes this a fair time to evaluate last winter’s free-agent class.
Teams spent $3.125 billion on free agents during the offseason (according to Spotrac), down from $3.609 billion the previous year, a sizable dip that can be attributed to Juan Soto’s record $765 million deal propping up that 2025 figure. Although no one came close to Mets owner Steve Cohen’s massive 15-year outlay for Soto, the Dodgers still gave Kyle Tucker the highest average annual value in history at $57.1 million (counting the deferred money in his whopping four-year, $240 million contract).
So how much of all this free-agent cash was well spent? Glad you asked. In this season of widespread mediocrity and six playoff spots up for grabs in each league, any of these marquee names should be considered a difference-maker, but not all are performing that way. Here’s a look at the top 20 highest-paid free agents from the past winter (WAR provided by FanGraphs, statistics through Thursday’s games).
1. Kyle Tucker . . . Dodgers . . . OF . . . four years, $240M . . . 0.9 WAR
Tucker, the most coveted name available, set off a bidding war that the Mets lost to the Dodgers at the 11th hour. Cohen apparently got lucky on this one. Tucker has been a disappointment with a .743 OPS that ranks 79th in the majors and a 114 wRC+ that sits at 76.
2. Dylan Cease . . . Blue Jays . . . SP . . . seven years, $210M . . . 1.9 WAR
Cease was the first big pitcher to come off the board and has performed as advertised for Toronto with a 13.35 K/rate, second only to the Brewers’ Jacob Misiorowski (14.06), and a 3.05 ERA in 11 starts. Like most of the Jays, however, Cease is on the IL with a hamstring strain.
3. Alex Bregman . . . Cubs . . . 3B . . . five years, $175M . . . 0.9 WAR
Bregman made a huge impact for the Red Sox a year ago and opted out of a deal slated to pay him another $80 million over the next two seasons. The Cubs haven’t been getting their money’s worth, as Bregman’s .697 OPS is nearly 150 points below his career mark. Given that he’s 32, those contract terms are worrisome.
4. Cody Bellinger . . . Yankees . . . OF . . . five years, $162M . . . 2.2 WAR
Aaron Judge called Bellinger the Yankees’ co-MVP with Ben Rice the other day, and that’s not hyperbole. Bellinger has done just what Brian Cashman envisioned, protecting Judge in the lineup (.271 batting average, .860 OPS) and playing Gold Glove defense in the outfield.
5. Pete Alonso . . . Orioles . . . 1B . . . five years, $155M . . . 0.9 WAR
The uproar over the Mets’ dismissal of Alonso has quieted considerably with his sluggish start in Baltimore, but he has rebounded in recent weeks. After hitting .198 with a .668 OPS at the end of April, Alonso is doing much better in May, batting .270 with six homers, 20 RBIs and an .824 OPS in his last 26 games.
6. Kyle Schwarber . . . Phillies . . . DH . . . five years, $150M . . . 1.8 WAR
Schwarber may be one-dimensional, but he does that dimension very well, smashing a homer every 11.3 plate appearances and leading the majors with 21. His .957 OPS ranks fourth, a few ticks better than Aaron Judge, and his 38 RBIs rank 10th.
7. Ranger Suarez . . . Red Sox . . . SP . . . five years, $130M . . . 1.2 WAR
Suarez’s performance (3.02 ERA) is getting lost — and wasted — in a dismal start by the Red Sox that already cost manager Alex Cora his job. The sinker specialist shook off hamstring issues and was on a four-start roll (0.42 ERA, 24 strikeouts, six walks, 21 2⁄3 innings) before Atlanta dented him for five runs in five innings last Tuesday.
8. Bo Bichette . . . Mets . . . SS/3B . . . three years, $126M . . . 0.3 WAR
Bichette headlines this year’s list of free-agent busts. He’s been the primary culprit for the Mets’ pitiful offense, batting .225 with a .591 OPS despite supposedly being relied on as Juan Soto’s protection in the lineup. Bichette has done a decent job filling in at shortstop for the injured Francisco Lindor.
9. Framber Valdez . . . Tigers . . . SP . . . three years, $115M . . . 0.6 WAR
Concerns over Valdez’s attitude caused his price to drop, and he lived down to that reputation earlier this month by getting a five-game suspension for drilling Trevor Story. Valdez has a 3.57 ERA in three starts since then, but with Tarik Skubal out (elbow surgery), the spiraling Tigers need more.
10. Josh Naylor . . . Mariners . . . 1B . . . five years, $92.5M . . . 0.3 WAR
Who knew that Naylor’s legs would be one of his biggest strengths? Not the Mariners, who aren’t getting the jolt at the plate they expected; he is hitting .258 with a .676 OPS. But his 12 steals are tied for 10th in the majors and he’s been caught only twice.
11. Michael King . . . Padres . . . SP . . . three years, $75M . . . 1.1 WAR
King has been instrumental in the Padres’ ability to stay on the heels of the two-time defending world champion Dodgers; he has a 2.76 ERA through his first 11 starts. Before last Sunday’s hiccup, King had a 0.96 ERA in three previous starts, striking out 20 in 18 2⁄3 innings.
12. Edwin Diaz . . . Dodgers . . . RP . . . three years, $69M . . . minus-0.1 WAR
Diaz’s decision to bolt to L.A. figured to be the Mets’ greatest offseason indignity, but Steve Cohen & Co. shouldn’t have any regrets. Diaz appeared in only seven games (10.50 ERA) before needing elbow surgery that will sideline him for three months. His alleged involvement in the illegal cockfighting industry was something the Mets no doubt were happy to dodge as well.
13. Kazuma Okamoto . . . Blue Jays . . . 3B . . . four years, $60M . . . 0.9 WAR
Okamoto was considered the safer option compared to fellow Japanese star Munetaka Murakami, based on more experience, a higher contact rate and better glove. But he’s batting only .215 with a .711 OPS despite a blazing start to May in which he hit .333 with five homers and a 1.178 OPS through the first 10 games.
14. Tatsuya Imai . . . Astros . . . SP . . . three years, $54M . . . minus-0.2 WAR
Imai was the starter in the Astros’ combined no-hitter last week, going six innings in the lone bright spot in his otherwise deflating MLB debut. He has a 6.15 ERA in six starts and already has been demoted. His 17.5% walk rate leads all starters with at least 20 innings.
15. Devin Williams . . . Mets . . . RP . . . three years, $51M . . . 0.1 WAR
Williams teeing up last Sunday’s walk-off grand slam to the Marlins was totally on brand for this terrible Mets season, but it actually was surprising because the closer had pitched well after a sluggish Flushing start. Williams had allowed two hits in 9 2⁄3 scoreless innings in his previous 10 appearances (five saves, two wins).
16. J.T. Realmuto . . . Phillies . . . C . . . three years, $45M . . . 0.7 WAR
Realmuto got this deal as a reward for past service, and his drop-off is pretty much what you’d expect from a 35-year-old catcher. His offensive stats are down, and his .623 OPS ranks 24 among the 38 catchers with 100 plate appearances.
17. Robert Suarez . . . Atlanta . . . RP . . . three years, $45M . . . 0.5 WAR
Suarez, a two-time All-Star closer, was coming off a 40-save season when Atlanta signed him to be the setup man for Raisel Iglesias. He’s done both jobs, going 4-for-5 in save chances filling in for Iglesias and recording a 0.77 ERA with a 0.86 WHIP in 23 games overall for Atlanta.
18. Merrill Kelly . . . Diamondbacks . . . SP . . . two years, $40M . . . minus-0.1 WAR
Kelly’s first four starts were alarming, as he allowed 29 hits, 21 earned runs and six homers in 19 innings. His last four, however, show a veteran pitcher on the upswing: 4-0, 2.17 ERA with 19 hits (two homers) in 29 innings.
19. Jorge Polanco . . . Mets . . . 1B/DH . . . two years, $40M . . . minus-0.3 WAR
Polanco deserves an incomplete grade; he’s appeared in only 14 games because of wrist/Achilles injuries that have kept him on the injured list since April 18. Polanco was hitting .179 with a .532 OPS before going on the shelf, and given the worrisome nature of his Achilles bursitis, there’s real concern about how productive he can be when/if he does return.
20. Munetaka Murakami . . . White Sox . . . 1B . . . two years, $34M . . . 2.1 WAR
Murakami went from being the offseason’s biggest question mark — check out that low-cost financial commitment by the White Sox, of all teams — to this season’s biggest bargain. Obviously, the power is legit, as Murakami’s 20 homers are tied for second with Yordan Alvarez for second in the majors. As for those other two true outcomes, Murakami ranks third in walk percentage (18.0%) and is tied for seventh in strikeout rate (32.4%).
David Lennon is an award-winning columnist, a voter for baseball's Hall of Fame and has covered six no-hitters, including two perfect games.
