Rising temps at Citi Field mean uptick in Mets' offensive production
Brandon Nimmo of the New York Mets celebrates his seventh inning home run against the Washington Nationals at Citi Field on Wednesday. Credit: Jim McIsaac
For years, Brandon Nimmo gladly told anyone in earshot. Playing by Flushing Bay during the first two months of the season was a frustrating experience for hitters in general and the Mets in particular, given that they got a larger dose on a regular basis.
There was a stubborn chill that rarely broke 60, and if so, only a few ticks higher. Swirling winds that had a tendency to gust from the outfield walls toward the plate.
The fact that Citi Field crept up from being MLB’s fourth-worst ballpark for offensive production to fifth in the span of the past week alone — the Mets’ first homestand of June — was more than enough evidence to support Nimmo’s thesis.
It’s not because of Citi Field’s dimensions, which repeatedly have been altered since the stadium opened as a cavernous pitcher’s paradise in 2009. The Mets moved in the walls twice, along with adding the leftfield party deck to front the “Great Wall of Flushing,” a term still used by radio broadcaster Howie Rose.
But there’s nothing the Mets can do about the meteorological conditions, at least until owner Steve Cohen decides to build himself the retractable-roof dome everyone is clamoring for (just kidding — sort of). If that ever did come to pass, Nimmo certainly would be a happy camper, along with his fellow Mets hitters.
Nimmo fancies himself an amateur weatherman from all that time he’s spent braving the elements in leftfield, and he’s also scoured the team’s April/ May data compared to the rest of the regular season. But look no further than Nimmo’s now-favorable numbers at home since the calendar flipped to June.
Through the first four games since the Mets returned to Citi Field from mile-high Denver, Nimmo swung the bat as if he were continuing to take advantage of the thin air at Coors Field, hitting .313 (5-for-16) with three homers and a 1.228 OPS.
A tiny sample size, but not in Nimmo’s mind. Through 14 home games in April, he batted .143 (7-for-49) with zero homers, then gradually heated up through May (15-for-43, two homers) before going full launch in June, homering three times in two games.
No wonder the always upbeat Nimmo was sporting an even bigger grin in recent days.
“It’s so crazy — oh my gosh,” said Nimmo, who had been preaching to his teammates about Citi Field’s pending climate change. “Hey, boys, you know that time I was talking about? It’s here now. It’s crazy how this field just flips a switch.”
Juan Soto no doubt is a believer as well. Before signing with the Mets, he was a wrecking ball during his Flushing visits with a 1.175 OPS and 12 homers in 35 career games at Citi Field, including two of the longest drives ever hit at the ballpark (466 feet and 463). But the past performance didn’t transition during the first two months as Soto batted .229 (25-for-109) with five homers. He didn’t go deep until May 1.
His first four June games at Citi Field? He was 6-for-15 with two homers and a 1.404 OPS. By Nimmo’s reasoning — and research — that wasn’t a coincidence. Just as Soto’s hard-hit rate and exit velo during April/ May suggested he should have bigger numbers at home, Nimmo was in the same boat.
“Honestly, for him as well, things are heating up,” Nimmo said. “His numbers were all pointing to that he’s the Soto we all know and love. But Citi Field is no joke. I tell you guys every single year. April and May here is no joke. There’s a reason this ballpark ranks in the bottom of ballparks every single year, and it’s not because of June, July and August.”
Going into this season, the Mets’ versatile, powerful lineup was supposed to be their strength, but it’s taken some time to get there. Through Friday’s games, they had MLB’s fifth-best OPS (.755) and ranked eighth in runs per game (4.63), just below the Phillies (4.64). By Nimmo’s logic, the rising temperatures should mean a significant uptick in the Mets’ offensive production (but perhaps a leveling off of the pitching staff’s brilliant start, too).
“You have to understand you’re going to go through different seasons,” Nimmo said. “The weather is going to heat up and it’s going to cool down. The wind’s going to be blowing in. There’s a lot of different factors that play into this game. Sometimes you just have to buy into the process and stick with it when those numbers are telling you what you’re doing is good and will work out.”
Mendy’s early MOY case
Carlos Mendoza was my pick a year ago for the Manager of the Year award that ultimately went to the Brewers’ Pat Murphy (who was bounced in the wild-card round by the Mets). But he shouldn’t be overlooked this time around despite the attention paid to the Mets for their surprising rotation, MLB’s second-highest payroll and the signing of Soto.
President of baseball operations David Stearns appears to have done another stellar job putting together the roster, but picking Mendoza to be a first-time manager a year ago stands up as one of the club’s best moves to date. That again was evident this past week after David Peterson pitched a 5-0 shutout against the Nationals on Wednesday and the feelings between the manager and his players really shined through.
Mendoza stuck with Peterson for the ninth after a dugout conversation, illustrating yet again how this manager strikes an effective balance between trust and accountability.
“He makes all the decisions and it’s a tough job,” Peterson said. “For him to be able to pull me aside and us talk about it and him have the confidence to send me back out there and trust that I was going to get the job done is huge. He’s a great manager to play for. Just being able to hear my side, see how I was feeling, that says a lot to me.”
Said Mendoza: “As a manager, you want to give your players a chance every time you have that opportunity, right? He gave me a hug and said, ‘Thank you, skipper.’ That means a lot to me.”
Mendoza’s faith paid off that night for both Peterson and the Mets. This kind of bond between a manager and his players will keep yielding dividends — a relationship that we saw grow stronger during last year’s remarkable turnaround and continues to flourish with the Mets sitting atop the NL East.
David Lennon is an award-winning columnist, a voter for baseball's Hall of Fame and has covered six no-hitters, including two perfect games.
