David Lennon: Clay Holmes can help a contender, but that likely won't occur with Mets
Mets starting pitcher Clay Holmes delivers against the Yankees during the first inning of an MLB game at Citi Field on May 15. Credit: Kathleen Malone-Van Dyke
Clay Holmes was undeterred by the approaching thunderstorms Monday afternoon, playing catch amid the raindrops on the slick outfield grass. As the lone Met to brave the elements, and the only member of the roster rehabbing from a fractured right fibula, Holmes’ decision to squeeze in a few throws felt somewhat questionable, given the circumstances.
Turns out, Holmes was fine — completing the light workout without incident — and the Mets need to keep him that way. Not so much for the slim chance of reviving the team’s long-shot playoff hopes, but maximizing Holmes’ value as one of the few trade chips by the Aug. 3 trade deadline (Monday night’s game against the Cubs was rained out; it will be made up Wednesday as part of a split doubleheader).
The problem is Holmes’ rather vague return date. Back when the Yankees’ Spencer Jones smacked that 111-mph line drive off Holmes’ lower leg on May 15, the rough estimate for Holmes was early August. At the time, losing Holmes — arguably the Mets’ de facto ace — was a crushing blow, but with plenty of season left, it was still possible to envision a spirited rebound in Flushing.
And if that scenario did play out, Holmes figured to be the perfect addition for the stretch run. But the Mets (34-43) have found themselves trending in a much different direction since Holmes landed on the injured list, which is likely going to make him better suited to help another team over those final six weeks or so.
Holmes is earning $13 million in the second year of his three-year, $38 million contract — but can opt out at the end of this season, which is all but guaranteed at this point. And Holmes’ conversion from Yankees’ erratic closer to Mets’ front-line starter, easily one of David Stearns’ biggest Ws as president of baseball operations, should earn him double that salary on the open market this winter. It’s going to be Holmes’ best payday of his nine-year career, but he insists that his deadline fate — or future contract — is not something on his mind at the moment.
“Honestly, not really,” Holmes said before Monday’s game. “These are my teammates. I care a lot about the people here in this room, and for that not being my full attention — coming back and helping this team, whatever that may look like — it would be a disservice to this team and these guys. I’m invested in the people, so I’m working as hard as I can to get back and help the people in this room out.
“A lot of things are out of your control, obviously. But that’s kind of where my focus is. I just want to be the best player and teammate I can be to the team I’m on right now.”
Holmes was 4-4 with a 2.39 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in his first his nine starts, averaging 5.85 innings, and should have no issue regaining that mid-May form again. He’s not dealing with any elbow or shoulder problems, didn’t require surgery to repair the leg fracture, and a broken bone typically is a much cleaner recovery than muscle or ligament damage. It’s a pretty standard six weeks to fully mend the break, and when Holmes reaches that milepost Friday, he’ll get another MRI to clear him for the next stage of his rehab.
“We just have to clear it to start that progression,” Holmes said. “Just slowly loading it where we feel comfortable of the impact and really putting more torque on it. If that’s all good, we’ll be able to get off the mound.”
Holmes still has a long road ahead, going from bullpen sessions to live batting practice to ultimately a minor-league assignment that should brush up against the Aug. 3 deadline — if not past it. But Holmes doesn’t need to be at full strength for the Mets to trade him. Last season, the Blue Jays acquired former Cy Young winner Shane Bieber at the July 31 deadline while he still was in the final stages of his rehab from Tommy John surgery, having made four minor-league starts to that point. Toronto shipped its No. 5 prospect Khal Stephen to the Guardians for Bieber, who didn’t make his Jays debut until Aug. 22. He went 4-2 with a 3.57 ERA in seven regular-season starts, then 2-1 with an 3.86 ERA in four playoff starts and one relief appearance for the defending AL champs.
There’s zero doubt Holmes will help a contender, and one doesn’t seem likely to materialize in Flushing. It’s no coincidence that the Mets have been unable to pull out of their spiral with Holmes on the shelf. The steep decline has flattened some, as the Mets are 16-17 during that span. But the rotation — minus Holmes — continues to be their fatal weakness, with the third-worst ERA (5.90) in the majors and second-worst WHIP (1.52) over those 33 games. The starters also totaled the third-fewest innings (135 2/3) without the sturdy Holmes available to shoulder some of the workload.
With Freddy Peralta’s surprising downfall, Holmes could be the more attractive trade chip of the two, even with a slightly higher salary (Peralta earns just $8 million this season). And if the Mets show little promise over these next five weeks, they’ll take whatever they can get at the deadline.
David Lennon is an award-winning columnist, a voter for baseball's Hall of Fame and has covered six no-hitters, including two perfect games.
