How do David Lennon's MLB midseason awards compare to his preseason predictions?

While the impact of the modern manager in 21st century baseball remains open to debate, one thing is for certain: they still make for convenient fall guys.

Check out this season’s first half, when four managers lost their jobs before the All-Star break: Brandon Hyde (Orioles), Derek Shelton (Pirates), Bud Black (Rockies) and Dave Martinez (Nationals).

What did they all have in common? Their team’s performances ranged from disappointing to dismal to potentially record-breaking disastrous in the case of Black’s Colorado cream puffs, currently on pace to lose 124 games, which would break the all-time mark established way back in 2024 by the White Sox (121). Previously, of course, it was owned for 62 years by the ’62 Mets (120).

Then again, who’s truly at fault? The Nationals, Rockies and Pirates rank 21st, 22nd and 27th among MLB payrolls, so it’s reasonable to question ownership’s commitment to winning, along with front-office architects that assembled this collection of perennial losers. Even the Orioles, a young team on the rise coming off back-to-back playoff appearances, didn’t go all-in during the winter after losing ace Corbin Burnes, and Hyde had zero to do with Baltimore sitting at 15th on the payroll list.

On the flip side, should it be any surprise that four of the division leaders rank in the top six of MLB’s biggest spenders, while two others holding wild-card spots are in the top three (Yankees and Mets)? As of Friday, the Tigers remained the outlier among the sport’s elite, posting the most wins (59) despite coming in at 17th on the payroll list.

Staying on the subject of bang for the buck, now that we’ve arrived at the All-Star break, it’s time to hand out my midseason awards. As always, for transparency’s sake, I’ve included my preseason picks as well, and some of those don’t look so hot at the moment. But with roughly 2 1⁄2 months remaining in the regular season, there’s plenty more baseball left to play.

AMERICAN LEAGUE

MVP: Aaron Judge, Yankees

Once again, year after year, the only thing capable of toppling the planet’s best player is injury, and as long as Judge stays healthy — he played 157 and 158 games during his previous two MVP seasons — he’s going to win this season’s trophy, too. Through Saturday, Judge had appeared in all of the Yankees’ 95 games, with 73 starts in rightfield and 21 at DH (he pinch hit on his day off, June 12 in Kansas City). Cal Raleigh’s 38 homers may be three more than Judge, but the Yankees’ captain beats the “Big Dumper” handily in every other category, with his .358 batting average nearly 100 points higher and 1.204 OPS almost 200 points better. Raleigh gets credit as a catcher shepherding the Mariners’ pitching staff, but Judge shines defensively as well, especially as a 6-7 rim protector for the short porch.

Preseason: Jose Ramirez, Guardians

CY YOUNG:

Tarik Skubal, Tigers

Skubal has some worthy challengers at this stage, namely the Astros’ Hunter Brown, the Yankees’ Max Fried, the Red Sox’s Garrett Crochet and even my preseason pick, the Rangers’ Jacob deGrom. But if Skubal continues this first-half domination, he should become the first pitcher to win back-to-back Cy Young Awards since deGrom (2018-19). No AL pitcher has done it since Pedro Martinez (1999-2000). Skubal is tied for first in the American League in ERA (2.23) and leads the AL in K/9 rate (11.38), strikeout percentage (33.9) and WHIP (0.826). He’s also tied for second in the majors in wins (10), tied for fourth in total innings (121) and ranks fifth in opponents’ batting average (.193).

Preseason: Jacob deGrom, Rangers

MANAGER OF THE YEAR:

A.J. Hinch, Tigers

How’s this for a redemption story? Manager helps build a dynasty up from the ashes of an organizational bonfire in Houston, has three straight 100-plus win seasons, splits his two World Series appearances, loses the other ALCS, then gets fired — along with GM Jeff Luhnow — for being part of the most nefarious cheating scandal the sport has ever seen. As karma would have it, Hinch never won Manager of the Year in Houston. But he should be a slam dunk during this second chance with the Tigers, who have shown that last year’s remarkable second-half surge was no fluke but the start of something real in Motown (or the opposite of the Astros’ trash-can sorcery under his tenure).

Preseason: Alex Cora, Red Sox 

ROOKIE OF THE YEAR:

Jacob Wilson, Athletics

The Athletics may have moved to baseball’s wilderness with their stopover at Sacramento’s Triple-A stadium, but shortstop Jacob Wilson is earning plenty of attention. He has the AL start for Tuesday’s All-Star Game as the top vote-getter at the position and it wasn’t just a popularity contest. Wilson’s .335 batting average entering Saturday was second only to Aaron Judge (.356) in the majors and his .847 OPS is runner-up among AL rookies, only behind teammate Nick Kurtz (.873). Also keep an eye on Red Sox catcher Carlos Narvaez, traded from the Yankees last winter, and maybe the resurgent Jasson Dominguez, who entered Friday hitting .375 (21-for-56) with a .996 OPS over his last 14 games.

Preseason: Jasson Dominguez, Yankees

NATIONAL LEAGUE

MVP: Pete Crow-Armstrong, Cubs

Don’t look now, but Crow-Armstrong, the former Mets prospect traded for Javy Baez, is giving Shohei Ohtani a run for his money. But that should come with the major caveat that the Dodgers’ DH only began taking baby steps in his return to the rotation a month ago. Stack these two up in their current roles — speedy, power-hitting, Gold-Glove-caliber centerfielder vs. one-way DH — and you could say PCA is holding a slight edge at this moment. His 25 homers are tied with teammate Seiya Suzuki for fourth in the NL while his 27 stolen bases are second to Oneil Cruz’s 29 before Saturday’s games. He’s also tied for third in runs (67) with teammate Kyle Tucker. Once Ohtani gets stretched out as a starter, however, this argument could become moot and Shohei locks up a fourth MVP.

Preseason: Francisco Lindor, Mets

CY YOUNG:

Zack Wheeler, Phillies

Last season, Wheeler finished second to a rejuvenated Chris Sale. This year, however, it’s looking like Wheeler’s award to lose, and judging by his performance so far, he’s getting harder and harder to beat. Wheeler’s 2.17 ERA may be second to Paul Skenes (2.01), but he leads most other categories: first in K/9 (11.48) and opponents batting average (.177), and second in WHIP (0.84). More evidence that Wheeler isn’t messing around. He withdrew from the All-Star Game so he could prioritize rest over the break.

Preseason: Paul Skenes, Pirates

MANAGER OF THE YEAR: Craig Counsell, Cubs

This was a tough call, with a handful of deserving candidates, and Counsell is never going to get credit as an overachiever due to his record five-year, $40 million contract. But he’s helped the Cubs squeeze more from what many figured to be a roster of still-maturing players, a big part of why he was snatched away from small-market Milwaukee. While the North Side boasts one of MLB’s most potent offenses, the Cubs have had to weather a flurry of early pitching injuries, and Counsell’s 14-8 record in one-run games this season has helped them stay ahead of his former club, the surging Brewers, in the NL Central.

Preseason: Carlos Mendoza, Mets

ROOKIE OF THE YEAR:

Drake Baldwin, Atlanta

Jacob Misiorowski, the Brewers’ flamethrower, has been a magnet for most of the rookie hype since he was promoted last month, and aside from one clunker against the Mets, his 2.81 ERA and 33.7% strikeout rate indicates he’s be a threat for this award in the second half. As it stands now, however, Baldwin, the Atlanta catcher owns the best pre-break performance, with an .846 OPS that leads all NL rookies and 11 homers that are second to another rookie catcher, the Marlins’ Agustin Ramirez (14).

Preseason: Matt Shaw, Cubs

By David Lennon

dave.lennon@newsday.comDPLennon

David Lennon is an award-winning columnist, a voter for baseball's Hall of Fame and has covered six no-hitters, including two perfect games.