National League MVP debate rages on: Dodgers' Shohei Ohtani or Mets' Francisco Lindor?
The definition of “most valuable” was a popular debate topic this past week at Citi Field, where the two-way performance of Francisco Lindor has been proving to be a legitimate challenge to what many people believed was Shohei Ohtani’s rubber-stamp election to a third MVP award.
How ironic. Ohtani won two MVPs (with the Angels) in large part because of his unicorn ability to be elite both on the mound and at the plate, something that hadn’t been done at that level since Babe Ruth a century ago (and Ohtani has been a far better two-way player than Ruth ever was). In fact, once Ohtani is able to join the Dodgers’ rotation next season and if he stays healthy, we might as well retire the MVP award, because no one else can match what he brings to a team.
This could be the last available window for someone else to win the MVP in the National League, and only because Ohtani — thanks to last year’s UCL repair — has been limited to DH duties in the first season of his 10-year, $700 million contract with the Dodgers. Of course, because it’s Ohtani, he’s turned himself into the best DH in history. He’s virtually guaranteed to be the first player to hit 50 homers and steal 50 bases in the same season.
But no matter what Ohtani does from an offensive standpoint, and it’s been spectacular, he plays only half the game. When the Dodgers are positioned in the field, he’s a glorified spectator, a fan with the best seat at Chavez Ravine. For the defensive half of those innings, Ohtani’s impact on L.A.’s chances to win or lose plunges to zero. His value, at that point, is slightly greater than the Dodgers’ Gatorade cooler.
That’s not meant to be a slight against Ohtani, just a condition of his rehab. And he’s more than made up for that shortcoming by carrying the first-place Dodgers through a number of key injuries this season, including the two-month absence of Mookie Betts, the 2018 American League MVP and the runner-up to Ronald Acuna Jr. last year in the NL.
Offensively speaking, from a pure stats perspective, Ohtani vs. Lindor is really no contest. Ohtani is miles ahead of the Mets’ shortstop in almost every category, and that dominance alone usually is enough to take home the MVP, even with the award’s amorphous definition, which is open to interpretation.
This time, though, there’s a significant wrinkle. No primary DH has won an MVP, and the winner with the most time at DH is Angels outfielder Don Baylor in 1979 (65 of his 162 games).
Since 1973, when the American League first introduced the DH — the NL added it in 2022 — only eight players who logged the majority of their games at DH have finished in the top three of the MVP balloting. The Red Sox’ David Ortiz owns the honor of most first-place votes by a DH, earning 11 for his 47-homer, 148-RBI season in 2005, when he finished second to the Yankees’ Alex Rodriguez, who collected 16 first-place votes.
Could Lindor slide in to take the top spot this year? Again, that goes back to how the voters define “most valuable.”
Full disclosure: I’ve been selected by the BBWAA to be one of those 30 voters for the NL MVP award this season — it rotates to different members each year — so I can’t reveal my pick here (I haven’t decided yet anyway). But I can present how Lindor makes a strong case, especially given that he holds a major advantage on the defensive side.
Thanks to his Gold Glove-caliber shortstop play along with his stellar production at the plate, Lindor’s 7.3 WAR (according to FanGraphs) stands atop the National League, above even Ohtani (6.6). That’s because of the defensive component, where Lindor earns a 16.5 and the DH-only Ohtani is a negative-14.8.
It’s very difficult to simply dismiss that part of the equation. While defense isn’t valued the way it used to be in baseball — ask any regular observer of the sport — that doesn’t mean brilliant glovework isn’t appreciated. And Lindor qualifies for every superlative at short, with an impact that stretches to every corner of the diamond.
Mets manager Carlos Mendoza is biased, of course. But this is Mendoza’s first year at the helm in Flushing, and having someone like Lindor — who also acts like the de facto Mets captain in addition to his shortstop duties — goes beyond MVP status for a rookie manager.
“Not only does he play defense, he plans an elite defense,” Mendoza said. “He makes the guys around him so much better. Just being kind of the quarterback of the infield, leading the way, staying on everybody, playing the game the right way . . . In the dugout, between innings, during our meetings when we’re going over scouting reports — there’s a lot this guy brings to the table, not only on the field but off the field. Pretty impressive.”
Also, the Mets wouldn’t be in the wild-card race without Lindor. That’s pretty obvious. And whether or not they qualify for October — Ohtani’s Dodgers certainly will — is likely to influence voters on Lindor’s candidacy.
While it wasn’t surprising for Mendoza to support his shortstop, Lindor’s previous Mets manager, Buck Showalter, picked him over Ohtani as well during an appearance on MLB Network this past week, saying “I’d go with Lindor.” He added:
“He can go 0-for-4 and win a game. Those DHs can’t go 0-for-4 and win a game.”
That’s not entirely true, of course. Knowing Ohtani, he could walk, steal two bases and trot home on a groundout or sacrifice fly that he set up with his legs.
But the point Showalter was trying to make is well-taken. He also was a huge Lindor fan during their two years together in Flushing, when the shortstop twice finished ninth in the MVP balloting.
This season, however, has been next level for Lindor, and only his all-around greatness has a chance to topple Ohtani’s unprecedented offensive achievements. But Lindor is making history, too. His second straight 30-homer season was the fifth of his career, tying Hall of Famer Ernie Banks for the second-most by a primary shortstop (A-Rod leads the list with seven, although they’re tainted by his admitted PED use).
Will Lindor’s shortstop-centric feats be enough to beat Ohtani, who started out as a modern-day Ruth but already is surging past the Babe in his seventh MLB season?
The rest of this month could weigh heavily in the balloting, but everyone at Citi Field already has made their choice, from the “M-V-P” chants in the seats to upstairs in the front office.
As someone who evaluates player value, Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns was asked, “What does the most valuable player look like?”
“I think he looks like the guy who runs out to shortstop at 7 o’clock,” he said. “It’s been an unbelievable season to watch. We’re getting to the point, I think, where we’re talking about perhaps the greatest individual position-player season in the history of this franchise.
“I’ve been around some really special seasons. Been around some MVP seasons. This is right up there with anything I’ve seen on a day-to-day basis.”
Most Valuable Production?
The National League MVP race between Francisco Lindor and Shohei Ohtani will be judged on a number of factors. How the two stack up from a statistical viewpoint (through Thursday’s games).
Games: Lindor 140, Ohtani 137
Average: Lindor .274, Ohtani .290
OBP: Lindor .343, Ohtani .375
Slugging %: Lindor .501, Ohtani .613*
OPS: Lindor. 844, Ohtani .988*
Runs: Lindor 98, Ohtani 111*
HR: Lindor 30, Ohtani 44*
RBIs: Lindor 84, Ohtani 99
SB: Lindor 26, Ohtani 46
WAR: Lindor 7.3, Ohtani 6.6
*-Leads National League