You hear that knocking, Mets? It's Atlanta
Mets second baseman Jeff McNeil (1) goes to the dugout after being tagged out against the Washington Nationals during the seventh inning of a baseball game, Sunday, Sept. 4, 2022. Credit: AP/Noah K. Murray
The schedule says the Mets are playing the Pirates on Labor Day at PNC Park. But it doesn’t feel that way. Not anymore.
After this weekend’s inexplicable series loss to the terrible Nationals, punctuated by Sunday’s 7-1 mail-in defeat (which included some Citi Field boos), the Mets must greet each new sunrise with two opponents to worry about — the team in the other dugout and the now-constant presence of Atlanta, whose suffocating shadow has become impossible to shake.
The defending world champs have been lurking all season. But once the pursuer is on the verge of claiming a share of the division’s top spot — and Atlanta now is only one game back after sweeping the Marlins — that’s when things truly tighten up.
The pressure is a real, tangible entity. It flies on the team plane, moves into a locker, takes BP, grabs a seat on the bench.
The Mets scored a whopping total of two runs in their pair of losses to the Nationals and had to rally late to pull out Friday’s lone victory. Was that because of two superb back-to-back pitching performances by Patrick Corbin (6.28 ERA) and Erick Fedde (5.29), or was something else afoot? And what of the Mets’ offense virtually disappearing over the past dozen games, averaging three runs in that span?
We’re all familiar with the natural ebbs and flows of a season. Baseball is a hard game. Hitting is difficult. Understood.
This time of year, however, is different. Maybe all 162 games count the same in the standings, but this isn’t solely about the math. Come September, the challenge can be more mental than physical, and Atlanta refuses to give the Mets a breather.
On July 23, the Mets were clinging to a half-game edge but then went 15-2 to rebuild the margin to seven games, where it stayed until Aug. 10. Since then, the Mets are 12-11, averaging only 3.57 runs and hitting 20 homers with a .686 OPS.
As for charging Atlanta, the four-time defending NL East champs are 18-5 in that same stretch, averaging 5.52 runs and smacking 33 homers with a .797 OPS.
Atlanta also has history on its side, along with last season’s ghosts. The Mets coughed up their lead on Aug. 14 a year ago and promptly went over a cliff, finishing 11 1⁄2 games out.
We won’t even get into 2007 and ’08. As for the 2015 Mets, they had a five-game lead on Sept. 5, it slipped to four the following day, and then they got it as high as nine before eventually closing out the division.
Atlanta isn’t playing like a team that’s going to allow that to happen, forcing the Mets to watch the scoreboard between pitches.
“It’s about us,” Mets manager Buck Showalter said. “It’s been that way all year. Atlanta is an obstacle we’ll face when we face them, but it’s about us. Our guys have embraced that.
“There’s always a word you use about it, whether it’s a dip or a slump. But why is that? Because of the level they’ve played at. It’s a break from that. And I feel confident every time the sun comes up. But you got to make it happen.”
And forget about any supposed help from the schedule. The Mets have the easiest slate of opponents left in the majors, with a combined .423 winning percentage, but it didn’t do them any good this weekend against the 47-win Nationals. Plus Atlanta’s remaining foes stack up at .477, a strength-of-schedule that ranks 22nd overall.
All the signs are pointing to that final showdown at Truist Park (Sept. 30-Oct. 2) as potentially deciding the division.
If the Mets come up short, they can look back at this weekend as a missed opportunity. Showalter and the players chose to credit the Nationals’ pitching staff (5.09 ERA, dead last in MLB), but the Mets also had to admit it didn’t come off as their best effort.
With the score tied at 1 on Sunday, Jeff McNeil had an inning-ending double-play grounder in his glove momentarily before kicking the chance away. Four unearned runs later, Carlos Carrasco was pulled with two outs in that same third inning, and the Mets were mostly non-competitive from there.
Errors happen, as do fluke situations. One of those cost the Mets a chance to rally in the seventh inning, when Nationals leftfielder Cesar Hernandez turned a dropped fly ball into a bizarre 7-5 double play.
But the Mets have arrived at the tipping point of their season. And Atlanta isn’t affording them the luxury of kicking any games away.
“That’s something you’re aware of,” McNeil said. “But you’ve got to come ready to play every day. You’ve got to take care of the team you’re playing — you can’t really focus on what other teams are doing.”
The other team is Atlanta. And the defending champs officially are on the Mets’ doorstep.
David Lennon is an award-winning columnist, a voter for baseball's Hall of Fame and has covered six no-hitters, including two perfect games.
