Mets desperately need a healthy Santana

PORT ST. LUCIE, Fla.

Unlike a year ago at this time, you don't hear the Mets making any predictions about Johan Santana. Consider it a lesson learned after Santana's slow, painful fade to oblivion last season, when his projected return began in June, was extended to the All-Star break and then was pretty much scrapped.

So with pitchers and catchers scheduled to report Monday at Digital Domain Park, the Mets again find themselves in a tricky situation, knowing how desperately they need Santana to start Opening Day, yet pretending they don't.

There was reason for optimism after Friday's bullpen session went smoothly. But for Santana, recovery is everything, and one good day means very little in the big picture. The Mets intend to take his temperature every morning for the next six weeks, which means their rotation will be a source of anxiety for the foreseeable future.

No offense to Chris Schwinden, Jeremy Hefner and Miguel Batista, but Sandy Alderson left himself severely exposed in this area. If Santana becomes the first domino to fall, moving everyone else up would feel about as stable as a marathon game of Jenga. R.A. Dickey, the first pitcher cut from camp two years ago, probably would become the No. 1, an unconventional spot for a knuckleballer, to say the least.

"I certainly hope that's not the case," Dickey said earlier this month. "But if the gauntlet has passed, even for a moment, then I'll try to accept the challenge the best I know how."

Dickey made 32 starts last year, threw 2082/3 innings and had a 3.28 ERA. He has every reason to expect the same type of performance this time around. But Dickey also is 37, an age that leaves him more vulnerable to the foot and leg injuries that nagged at him during the season.

SEE PHOTOSMets Opening Day starters

Jonathon Niese likely would follow Dickey, and beyond that, a questionable rotation becomes increasingly suspect. Mike Pelfrey failed in his role as the de facto No. 1 last year, and now he has to prove he can do more than simply eat innings. As for Dillon Gee, he has been pitching with a slightly torn labrum since 2009 and admittedly hit the wall in the second half of last season.

Complicating matters is that the next wave of young reinforcements -- Matt Harvey, Jeurys Familia, Zack Wheeler and even the rehabbing Jenrry Mejia -- figures to be at least another year away from making a lasting impact in the rotation. Bridging that gap is one of the bigger challenges Alderson currently faces, and a serviceable Santana would help buy additional time, if not keep the Mets within shouting distance of contention.

A year ago, Chris Young was the only starter to bow out early, because of shoulder surgery. Of the other five regulars, none made fewer than 26 starts and three surpassed 30 -- Pelfrey (33), Dickey (32), Chris Capuano (31). For the most part, the Mets had someone to take the baseball every fifth day. They might not be as lucky this season.

"Let's face it, some of the guys in that rotation would like to have better years than they had last year," Alderson said. "But at the same time, the real problem is depth in the event that somebody goes down."

And that's assuming Santana is able to pitch somewhere in the neighborhood of Opening Day. As Alderson has mentioned, it's not crucial that Santana starts on April 5 as long as he can be a contributing member at some point.

With such low expectations around this team, merely the anticipation of Santana pitching in the majors for the first time since 2010 would be a boost not only for morale in the clubhouse but at the box office. But if the Mets have learned anything in the past year, it's not to make more promises that Santana's shoulder can't keep.