Mets could have hard time finding pitching if they hope to contend in 2024
Mets owner Steve Cohen addresses the media before a game against the Brewers at Citi Field on June 28. Credit: Jim McIsaac
The Mets relied on the free-agent route to rebuild their rotation the past two seasons, with owner Steve Cohen investing a large chunk of his gigantic payrolls on starting pitchers.
Case in point: One of this offseason’s top free-agent starters won’t be a pitcher again for a while, as two-way star Shohei Ohtani — who cleaned out his Angels locker Friday night — has been shut down for the season because of a UCL tear and an oblique strain.
Ohtani remains this winter’s free-agent prize, but he’s only a DH at the moment. His pitching future is murky as the world awaits his decision on the elbow repair. The Mets certainly will be involved in the bidding for Ohtani, but his preferred destination remains unclear — other than the dysfunctional Angels probably have been scratched off his list.
Also, Ohtani won’t help the Mets’ immediate rotation needs, which are shaping up to feature at least two front-line starters, and that’s if you count on Kodai Senga being the incumbent ace and Jose Quintana as a reliable No. 2 or 3.
After Ohtani, Orix Buffaloes ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto is next in line as the most coveted free agent, but he’ll have a dozen or more serious suitors if and when Orix decides to make him available through Nippon Professional Baseball’s posting system.
Beyond Yamamoto? There’s plenty to spend money on, but buyer beware. Pitchers Blake Snell, Aaron Nola, Jordan Montgomery, Sonny Gray and Lucas Giolito headline that group. Eduardo Rodriguez and Marcus Stroman can opt out of their current deals to become free agents. Julio Urias is radioactive now as he faces domestic abuse charges, with the Dodgers already wiping away any trace of him at Chavez Ravine.
Cohen simply outspent the competition in signing Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander to record deals with $43.3 million annual salaries, but the Mets’ owner sounds reluctant to follow a similar plan this offseason. Trying to buy his way to a World Series resulted in Cohen dumping his pair of three-time Cy Young Award winners at this season’s trade deadline (and still picking up most of the tab).
“When we look at our pitching today, we had to go out and get pitchers in free agency over the last couple of years,” Cohen said during his late June news conference. “We haven’t really developed that many pitchers, which is actually pretty shocking. We’re certainly capable of doing it.”
The Mets did open up their first pitching lab this summer in Port St. Lucie — Cohen lamented the fact that they were so far behind other clubs — and the hiring of David Stearns as president of baseball operations, effective at season’s end, should be helpful in that development process. But how will their rotation bridge the gap in the meantime?
After trading Scherzer and Verlander, the Mets have been staging extended auditions for the spots behind Senga and Quintana, with mixed results. The rotation as a whole has fared pretty well, with a 3.75 ERA that’s fifth in the majors since Aug. 1 and 225 2⁄3 innings, the seventh-highest total overall.
Much of that is driven by Senga’s Cy Young Award bid (11-7, 2.95 ERA, 11.1 K/9), but the Mets hope recent rebounds by Tylor Megill and David Peterson, along with the emergence of Jose Butto, will keep them in the mix for next February. All that’s left now is the evaluation for 2024, and Megill allowed two earned runs in 5 2⁄3 innings Saturday in the Mets’ 3-2 loss to the Reds, trimming his ERA to 4.94 — the first time it’s been below five since June 16.
“It’s tough,” manager Buck Showalter said before Saturday night’s game. “This time of year and spring training, you’ve got to be careful. But what do you want them to do — not pitch well? They’re doing their part.”
Cohen isn’t a guy who has to concern himself with price tags. But even he acknowledges that the skyrocketing cost of starting pitchers eventually becomes too expensive, which is where the farm system comes in — or is supposed to, anyway. Despite restocking the minors at this year’s deadline, the Mets’ top pitching prospect is Mike Vasil, who sits at No. 9 in the organization, with Blade Tidwell right below him, according to MLB Pipeline.
Vasil, an eighth-round pick two years ago, could push for a rotation spot at some point next season after being promoted to Triple-A Syracuse in mid-June. Tidwell may be ranked higher, but it’s Christian Scott (No. 12) and Dominic Hamel (No. 16) who have excelled at Double-A Binghamton. Scott has a 2.47 ERA in 12 starts for the playoff-bound Rumble Ponies and Hamel has a 3.85 ERA and 11.6 K/9 rate in 25 starts.
Obviously, these are potential pieces in a future rotation, not the next Opening Day, meaning Stearns and Co. have a lot of work to do this winter. Cohen may have tempered any World Series expectations for 2024, but if the playoffs remain on the radar, the Mets will need to find a few starting pitchers. Somewhere.
David Lennon is an award-winning columnist, a voter for baseball's Hall of Fame and has covered six no-hitters, including two perfect games.
