Mets and Yankees both have a ton of work to do if they want to think about a World Series rematch

With the Subway Series now finished for the regular season, what are the odds we’ll see a rematch come October?

Depends on whom you ask. As of Monday afternoon, FanGraphs gave the Yankees an 85.5% shot of making the playoffs and 7.9% to win the World Series. For the Mets, it was 86.6% and 6.4%, respectively.

So we’re saying there’s a chance.

But after a brutal month for the New York rivals, capped by an even worse July 4th weekend for the Yankees at Citi Field, there’s plenty of room for improvement. The question now becomes who will be more successful in pumping up those percentages.

Let’s start with the Yankees, only because they’re the most confounding of the two. It was bad enough that Aaron Boone & Co. stumbled into Flushing after getting swept in Toronto and bumped out of first place by the Blue Jays. Then to lose No. 3 starter Clarke Schmidt until late next season because of a second Tommy John surgery cast a dark cloud over the Yankees all weekend.

That still didn’t excuse their baffling play, however, in dropping the first two games due to a combination of bullpen malfeasance, questionable defense and head-scratching performance all-around. We expected the Yankees to thrash the Mets’ injury-ravaged pitching staff in what figured to be a get-right series for Boone’s self-proclaimed “best team in the league.” What happened was just the opposite.

Instead, the Mets outscored the Yankees, 22-17, outhit them (.300 to .269) and had the superior OPS (.911 to .869). On the surface, those aren’t wide margins. But when you factor in the Mets using a starting trio of Justin Hagenman, Frankie Montas and Chris Devenski to counter Marcus Stroman, Carlos Rodon and Max Fried, it comes off as somewhat more unsettling.

Also, if not for the Mets spotty baserunning contributing to three double plays in Sunday’s 6-4 loss, including Cody Bellinger’s miraculous shoestring catch and throw, another sweep was certainly possible -- along with slipping farther down the division into third place. Still, the Yankees’ 7-16 record since June 13 is the second-worst in the majors during that stretch, above only the Guardians (5-16), and they have two legit contenders in the Mariners and Cubs coming to the Bronx before reaching the All-Star break. If the Yankees are serious about tightening things up, now would be a good time to prove it.

“I’m totally confident we’ll get to where we need to be by the end,” manager Aaron Boone said after Sunday’s win. “We’re going through it right now, and for the guys, a lot of good things happened [Sunday] -- withstand some punches, being able to hang on, is important in developing the character of your team.”

Some might say the Yankees have been a bit too good at developing character this season, especially after blowing a 6 1/2-game divisional lead in less than a month. During the Subway Series, their most concerning problems grew in stature: Anthony Volpe’s persistent regression, DJ LeMahieu’s fading value, Luke Weaver’s startling vulnerability and a once-sturdy rotation that got wobbly fast. GM Brian Cashman needs to be active before the July trade deadline to patch a handful of widening holes for a realistic World Series pursuit -- third base, another solid starter, relief help -- and he can thank the Mets for highlighting those deficiencies.

As for Carlos Mendoza & Co., in a weekend that was all about survival for both teams, it was his Mets that were more up to the challenge. Think about how the Subway Series began -- with loud back-to-back homers by Jasson Dominguez and Aaron Judge in Friday’s first 11 pitches. Yet Mendoza steered his pieced-together pitching staff through two unlikely wins, with a huge assist from his rejuvenated lineup, which went 6-for-9 with runners in scoring position during Saturday’s 12-6 rout, a 10-hit attack that included a pair of homers from Pete Alonso and Brandon Nimmo’s second grand slam in four games.

After losing 14 of 17, the Mets have now won four of their last five games, scoring a total of 32 runs over that span against the Brewers and Yankees. Moving Francisco Lindor down to the No. 2 spot has been a trigger of sorts -- he’s hitting .368 (7-for-19) with a 1.110 OPS since the switch with more RBIs (six) than he had in his previous 22 games (five).

“It’s very encouraging,” Lindor said of the Mets’ offensive rebound.

That was the Mets’ overall vibe after taking the Flushing edition of the Subway Series. Like the Yankees, they also have some fairly sizable holes for a team planning to play deep into October. While the Mets should be getting back Sean Manaea and Kodai Senga back in short order -- both ideally before the All-Star break -- their fragile history should have president of baseball operations David Stearns in the market for another starter, as well as relief help and maybe a better bat for centerfield.

In the meantime, the already sizzling Juan Soto -- who’s hitting .324 with 12 HRs, 24 RBIs and a 1.153 OPS over his last 33 games -- can use his All-Star snub for further motivation. And we’ll see what a more rested Alonso (.386 BA, 30 RBIs, .926 OPS over his last 33) means for the Mets after sitting out this year’s Home Run Derby.

“I just want to be in the best possible position to help this team win in the second half,” Alonso said. “And personally, I feel like I’m in a groove.”

You could say the Mets are back in a New York groove after the Subway Series. As for an October rematch, there’s a lot of work left to do in both boroughs. 

By David Lennon

dave.lennon@newsday.comDPLennon

David Lennon is an award-winning columnist, a voter for baseball's Hall of Fame and has covered six no-hitters, including two perfect games.