Rules changes in minors having a positive effect and could be MLB-bound

Is the future of Major League Baseball already being played in the minors?

That’s the plan, anyway, and it looks as if Rob Manfred has plenty to bring to the negotiating table in the coming months as the commissioner tries to implement a number of rule changes for the next CBA.

While much of the attention tends to focus on the game’s economic structure — baseball is an $11 billion industry, after all — it’s been no secret that the sport is constantly seeking ways to improve from the standpoint of entertainment value. And the keys to that are fairly straightforward: more contact, more movement, less standing around.

Not a very complicated formula. But incorporating the necessary means to do so? Never easy. Threading the needle between tradition and innovation has been baseball’s challenge in trying to appease a fan base that still cites Babe Ruth and Lefty Grove in conversations as seamlessly as Shohei Ohtani and Gerrit Cole.

Of all the new rules being tested in the minors this season, the one that MLB has been advocating the longest — with the union persistently pushing back on — has been the pitch clock. This year, the switch has been dramatic, trimmed all the way down to 15 seconds at Low-A West (California), and the results no doubt have thrilled everyone in the commissioner’s office.

Since the implementation in early June, the average nine-inning game has been sliced by 20 minutes, from 3:01 to 2:41, a significant drop.

Now compare that to what’s been transpiring this season at the major-league level. Through Friday, the average nine-inning game was lasting 3:09, the longest in history and nine minutes more than only three years ago.

Even more promising from Manfred’s perspective, the runs per game for each team at Low-A West have increased from 5.4 to 6.0 during that period, indicating that the increased offensive production has not been detrimental to the pace of the play.

This season, at the MLB level, the runs per game (each team) was at 4.50 through Friday, a steady drop from the previous two seasons — 4.65 in 2020, 4.83 in 2019.

That contrast would suggest nudging pitchers along has been the key part to the quicker pace, also satisfying purists by not tampering with any rules — other than adding a clock to a timeless game, of course. And for pitchers concerned by being rushed, that seemingly hasn’t adversely impacted command of the strike zone at Low-A, where the percentage of plate appearances that resulted in a walk dipped from 11.7% to 9.9% since the introduction of the timer and hit batters slid from 2.0% to 1.7%.

One notable addition this season appears to have made the pitch clock more successful, but it’s also a more drastic feature: when the clock is reset. In the past, a pitcher was able to reset the clock by stepping off the mound, but in the ’21 version, the timer continues to run if he does so with no one on base.

If there are runners on base, the pitcher has two free pickoff attempts/step-offs per plate appearance, with the clock resetting on each one. But on the third or more, the pitcher must record an out on one of the runners or the play is a balk. That’s a dicier proposition, of course, and one that the Players Association would tend to resist, based on the significant penalty for pitchers at the major-league level.

Pitchers coming up through the minors while being governed by this rule at least would have the chance to develop under these guidelines, just as hitters did with having to stay in the batter’s box. It’s not difficult to imagine a scenario, in a highly pressurized situation, in which a pitcher forgets how many times he’s stepped off or thrown over. Awarding an extra base for that misstep is a substantial edge for the offensive team.

In addition, as you might expect, the pickoff limitation — which also is used at other Low-A levels — has boosted stolen-base attempts per game from 2.38 to 3.12 across those leagues overall. And how’s this for an impact: The success rate has jumped from 69.2% to 77.8%.

We’re all for bringing back the stolen base, which has teetered on the brink of extinction since a more analytics-driven view took over front offices. This year, stolen bases — on a per team, per game basis — are at 0.45, the lowest since 1967 (0.42). A decade earlier, it was at 0.67.

As far as what stolen bases inject into the sport, we’ll just provide anecdotal proof as supplied by the Yankees, who went from a dreary station-to-station team in the first half of this season (20 stolen bases in 89 games) to an energized, exciting club after the All-Star break (35 in 45 games).

When it comes to other pitching changes, moving back the pitching rubber by a foot, from 60 feet, 6 inches to 61 feet, 6 inches, as MLB recently did with the independent Atlantic League, has yet to yield meaningful data. That shift figured to be the most difficult one to accept, based on the perceived physical strain on pitchers. Performance-wise, however, the adjustment has not been radical.

Through the first three weeks of the experiment, a span of 67 games, batting average has inched upward from .277 to .279 and slugging percentage has gone from .444 to .462. At the MLB level, those categories currently sit at .242 and .408.

One area that seems surprising, based on this relatively small sample size, was the strikeout percentage, which climbed slightly from 18.3% to 18.8%. Pushing back the pitching rubber figured to be a big advantage to hitters — like lowering the mound after the 1968 season — perhaps mitigating to some degree the impact of ever-increasing velocities, giving them more time to react. But the added distance also allows for more breaking action on a pitch, so there are myriad factors at work.

Either way, the Astros have the lowest strikeout percentage in the majors, and they’re still at 19.6%. The Cubs are the biggest offenders at 27.0%.

As long as these trends persist, MLB is going to try whatever it can to reverse them, with some possibly starting next season.

By David Lennon

dave.lennon@newsday.comDPLennon

David Lennon is an award-winning columnist, a voter for baseball's Hall of Fame and has covered six no-hitters, including two perfect games.