David Lennon: 15 players who could be moved at the MLB trade deadline

MLB’s trade deadline is Aug. 3 at 6 p.m. ET, three days later than last year. A whole 72 hours, which may not seem like much over a six-month season but is an eternity when it comes to making deals that could determine a team’s playoff fate — or even its longer-term future.

The date of the deadline is determined by commissioner Rob Manfred, in accordance with the current CBA, but it must be scheduled between July 28 and Aug. 3, so this is the latest possible option. Many have lobbied for the deadline to be pushed back even further, say to the end of August, in order for clubs to have a better handle on their postseason chances.

Each year, it seems, that becomes harder to evaluate, and this season is no exception. Before the second half resumed in full on Friday, the American League had 12 teams (out of 15) that either were holding a playoff spot or were within four games of qualifying. The National League had 11. Presumably, that leaves a total of seven bona fide sellers in this market, which doesn’t provide a ton of inventory for the buyers' side and ratchets up the competition (i.e. market prices for talent).

One of the more interesting teams to watch has been the Red Sox, who were stumbling toward a fire sale until their pivotal four-game sweep of the Yankees (June 25-28) at Fenway Park. Combined with Boston's doubleheader sweep of the AL East-leading Rays on Friday, the Red Sox have won 11 straight and 16 of 18 to move to .500 at 48-48. They were tied with the Twins for the third wild-card spot after Friday's play.

So what does that mean for this deadline? The Sox have some of the most valuable trade chips, including closer Aroldis Chapman and starter Sonny Gray, but are they definitely off the market now?

Same goes for the Astros, who were left for dead a month ago but were 2 1/2 games behind Boston entering Saturday. The Tigers were 16 games under .500 at the end of May — making Tarik Skubal seemingly a goner — but entered Saturday at 45-52.

Over in the NL, the surprising Marlins — typically a feeder franchise for the big-market contenders — were tied with the Cardinals for the third wild card entering Saturday. And the Nationals, who were thought to still be in the rebuilding stage this season, were 3 1/2 games out of a wild-card spot. The perennial also-ran Pirates were only 1 1/2 games out.

With the deadline just over two weeks away, any streak — good or bad — could dramatically change the trade landscape. So keep that in mind when perusing the list of 15 potential players on the move, provided below, listed in order of trade probability, highest to lowest.

(Stats included are for the first half)

1. Freddy Peralta, SP, Mets: Supposedly the perfect winter trade, a walk-year ace making $8 million who either stars for a playoff rotation or gets flipped at the deadline. But it didn’t work out quite as planned, as Peralta’s subpar performance (4.66 ERA) won’t recoup the two top 100 prospects the Mets forked over to get him last January.

2. Tarik Skubal, SP, Tigers: Even with Detroit’s rebound in a weak AL, the chance to cash in on the back-to-back Cy Young Award winner, who is in his free-agent season, can’t be cast aside for a long-shot playoff berth. Skubal looks fine after his May elbow procedure, and the bidding should bring back a nice haul.

3. Reid Detmers, SP, Angels: Hard to believe, but the Angels — who haven’t been to the playoffs since the Royals swept them in the 2014 ALDS —  again will be selling off pieces, and Detmers should be the most attractive. The 27-year-old lefty has a 10.2 K/9 ratio over 19 starts (108 2/3 IP), and a 3.35 FIP shows that a good defense (Cubs?) behind him will make him even more effective.

4. Luis Arraez, 2B, Giants: Signing Arraez to a one-year, $12 million deal was one of the very few things that went right for rookie president of baseball operations Buster Posey, in the sense that Arraez became a decent trade chip for the otherwise sinking franchise. The contact-obsessed Arraez is having his best season since 2023, hitting .330 with an .829 OPS and an MLB-best 4.0% strikeout rate.

5. Michael Wacha, SP, Royals: Wacha had a sub-4.00 ERA and 20-plus starts in each of the previous four years, and he’s a solid bet again this season, with a 3.77 ERA in 19 starts and an AL-high 119 1/3 innings. He’s also signed through 2027, with roughly $22 million still due and a $14 million option for 2028.

6. Robbie Ray, SP, Giants: With the Giants going nowhere and Ray headed for free agency, the timing is right to capitalize on a pitching-hungry market. The 34-year-old lefty is one of the few bright spots by the Bay with a 3.38 ERA in 18 starts and is winding down the five-year, $115 million deal he originally signed with the Mariners (roughly $11M left for this season).

7. Taylor Ward, OF, Orioles: Trading for Ward last winter was supposed to double-down on the Orioles' righthanded power already acquired in Pete Alonso, but it hasn’t worked out. The 32-year-old outfielder has only six homers in 96 games. Ward does have a .387 on-base percentage, though, and the fifth-highest walk rate (17.1%) in the majors, so there is value in that while waiting for the pop to resurface.

8. Joe Ryan, SP, Twins: The year after the Twins’ fire sale, they were tied for the third wild-card spot entering Saturday at 49-49. Is that compelling enough to resist a great package back for Ryan, who has a 2.85 ERA in 20 starts and comes with a mutual $13 million option for 2027?

9. Casey Mize, SP, Tigers: If Skubal is on the block, Mize — another pending free agent — should be next out the door. He’ll have plenty of suitors, as he has a 2.79 ERA in 14 starts with a 1.00 WHIP. He’s also cheap, due roughly $2 million for the remainder of the season.

10. Clay Holmes, SP, Mets: Holmes definitely will turn down his $12 million option for next season, so the Mets either should push for a multiyear extension now or trade him. The latter move should yield the best return of their available players. Holmes likely will be doing minor-league rehab starts around the deadline, but that won’t discourage suitors.

11. Luke Weaver, RP, Mets: While it’s no mystery that the Mets are among the guaranteed sellers, Weaver requires a little extra thought as the deadline approaches. The Mets surely want to contend next season, and keeping Weaver — who is signed through 2027 for another $11 million — would be key to that. Expect the Mets to get an offer they can’t refuse.

12. Jose Soriano, SP, Angels: Typically, a high-ceiling 27-year-old pitcher with two more years of team control isn’t dangled as trade bait, but the Angels already signaled their intentions when they dumped general manager Perry Minasian in late June. Moving Soriano — who has a 3.49 ERA in 20 starts — should bring some foundational talent that eventually can spark some hope in SoCal.

13. Ryan Jeffers, C, Twins: As is the case with Ryan, agreeing to deal Jeffers won’t be easy for the Twins, who hope to return to the playoffs for the first time since 2023. But a weak AL shouldn’t derail Minnesota from its mission to rebuild, and pending free agent Jeffers (.291 batting average, .952 OPS) is on the radar of some heavy hitters, the Yankees among them.

14. Mason Miller, RP, Padres: On the surface, the Padres are very much in the wild-card hunt, so why would they deal their closer? The answer lies with their unpredictable general manager, A.J. Preller, who thrives on the deadline chaos and loves to zig when others zag. Preller gave up his best prospect a year ago for Miller but no doubt would get a similar prize back — and maybe more — if he created a bidding war for Miller this time around.

15. Hunter Goodman, C, Rockies: The idea that the Rockies would trade Goodman feels extreme, even for a team 21 games under .500, but why not listen? They could get a huge return for a young catcher under team control through 2030. He’s not a product of the altitude, either; Goodman has hit 18 of his 27 homers away from Coors and his road OPS (.964) is way better than home (.747).