What effect will elbow injury have on Shohei Ohtani's bank account?

The prevailing thought about Shohei Ohtani’s two-way brilliance, even as MLB teams lined up to recruit him during the winter of 2017, was that it wouldn’t last.

Not that Ohtani couldn’t be a future Hall of Famer in the States. There was zero doubt concerning his otherworldly talent, and when he steps on the field, Ohtani has consistently proved  — be it on the mound or in the batter’s box — that he’s the most uniquely skilled player the sport has ever seen.

But the demands of being a two-way star, nearly a century after Babe Ruth gave up pitching to be a full-time slugging outfielder, figured to intensify as Ohtani grew older. Then decisions would have to be made. It was inevitable. The only question was when.

If that moment didn’t arrive this past week, unfortunately, it may be approaching the doorstep. And the timing could not possibly be worse for Ohtani, certainly from a financial perspective.

Just six weeks from free agency, Ohtani was diagnosed with a UCL tear in his pitching elbow, ending at least that part of his season. He continued his DH duties — and remained on track for what likely will be a second MVP award — but at least temporarily wound up on the shelf completely because of a strained right oblique muscle.

Ohtani, who mostly limits his media interactions to the days of his pitching starts, has not spoken publicly since the Angels announced the UCL injury on Aug. 24. But his agent, Nez Balelo of CAA, did address Ohtani’s situation this past week, partly to shed some light on his client’s condition — but also to assure everyone that Ohtani will return as a two-way player again at some point next season.

“There’s not a question in his mind that he’s going to come back and he’s going to continue to do both,” Balelo told reporters at Angel Stadium.

The part left unanswered is the “when,” and with Ohtani turning 30 next July  and already having had Tommy John surgery in 2018, the clock could be ticking on his viability to both pitch and hit, which could affect what figures to  be a record contract this offseason. Balelo dismissed any immediate need for another Tommy John surgery, saying this tear is in a different spot and that the original repair is intact.

Depending on the size of the tear and its location, there are less invasive ways to avoid Tommy John surgery. A therapy of platelet-rich plasma injections can be successful to varying degrees, and it apparently worked wonders for the Yankees’ Masahiro Tanaka, who has never needed Tommy John surgery since he was diagnosed with a small UCL tear in 2014, four months into his rookie season with the Yankees.

Ohtani tried to go that route himself in 2018 but still wound up needing the Tommy John procedure in October of that same year. As of this week, his camp had yet to reveal a plan going forward, other than he will continue to hit once the oblique issue clears up, which is expected to happen shortly.

“Shohei’s going to be fine,” Balelo said. “Is he going to pitch the rest of the year? No. We already know that. Is he going to get into next year? We don’t know yet. So just bear with me on that. But I do know this — no matter what timetable we’re dealing with and when we get this done, Shohei’s going to be in somebody’s lineup next year, DHing when the bell rings. We know that. We’re not going to push that. He’s going to be good to go.”

But the status of Ohtani’s elbow is not something to be shrugged off despite his agent’s unflagging optimism. With the bidding on Ohtani expected to start well north of $400 million, teams are going to need full transparency on his treatment plans as well as a long-term prognosis for his ability to pitch coming off two separate UCL tears. Based on his arm’s current mileage and the maintenance necessary to keep his pitching side operational, how realistic will it be for Ohtani to start every fifth day in a rotation?

The two-way magic is what makes Ohtani a unicorn, that he could be both a Cy Young Award contender and a power hitter/perennial MVP favorite wrapped together in one player. Separately, you’d be talking about a $40 million annual salary for each of those halves, making Ohtani  — on paper — an $80 million talent. Maybe knock off a few million because Ohtani is a DH and doesn’t provide the defense of a Mookie Betts or Aaron Judge. But from a value standpoint — with pitching the most coveted commodity in the majors — no one can provide more.

And all of that still doesn’t take into account what Ohtani brings in terms of off-the-field revenue. Just as the arrival of Hideki Matsui and then Tanaka triggered the flowering of new Japanese commercial signage around Yankee Stadium, Ohtani has done the same for the Angels — and  probably will outpace that wherever he winds up next.

Staying in Anaheim isn’t completely off the table, but the events of the past month or so would suggest that he'll be heading elsewhere. Even though the Angels made a flurry of trades around the deadline for a playoff push in an attempt to satisfy Ohtani’s chief priority of finally playing in October, they instead spiraled into a 9-25 tailspin that spurred a waiver sell-off involving those same newly acquired players.

As if that wasn’t bad enough, Angels general manager Perry Minasian had to fend off the perception that he bungled the handling of Ohtani’s UCL issues before Balelo ultimately confirmed that it was Ohtani who initially declined an MRI. And in a bizarre side note, Ohtani didn’t show up for the Angels' team photo last week, with media on site taking photos of a body double wearing his No. 17 for the group shot. Presumably his face will be added later.

“Shohei will be in the photo when you see it,” Angels manager Phil Nevin told reporters.

For probably the last time in that uniform, but the signs are pointing to Ohtani simply driving over to nearby Chavez Ravine, where the Dodgers have devoted the past calendar year to carving out payroll space for something — or someone. The Dodgers’ $251 million payroll (calculated for luxury tax purposes) ranks just fifth overall in MLB, tightly under the $253 million middle tier of tax thresholds. And their financial commitments on the books beyond this season are shockingly low, starting with $84 million for 2024. By comparison, the Mets are on the hook for $204 million next season, the Yankees $186 million.

Perhaps the worst news for Ohtani entering his free agency is the Mets and Yankees likely taking a backseat in his bidding war. While it wouldn’t be prudent to entirely rule out Steve Cohen and his $17 billion personal fortune, the Mets’ owner has publicly stated his intention to shift more toward the development side and not indulge in the wild free-agent spending of his previous two winters. He could always make an exception for Ohtani, but blowing him away with an astronomical bid doesn’t seem consistent with the franchise’s direction shift. Nor would the Mets appear to be the slam-dunk playoff contender Ohtani is seeking.

As for the Yankees, Hal Steinbrenner has pledged a reckoning of sorts for the front office this offseason, and after spending $294 million — the second-highest payroll in baseball — for a last-place team, throwing more money at high-risk investments doesn’t seem to fit his current mood. And even though Ohtani is a peerless hybrid of pitching and hitting talent, the events of the past month now factor in an increased level of risk to his free-agent equation.

By David Lennon

dave.lennon@newsday.comDPLennon

David Lennon is an award-winning columnist, a voter for baseball's Hall of Fame and has covered six no-hitters, including two perfect games.