David Lennon: Mets owner Steve Cohen could be making his pitch for Tarik Skubal
Free agent pitcher Tarik Skubal, formerly of the Los Angeles Dodgers, reacts against the Cubs on Aug. 4, 2026 in Chicago. Credit: Getty Images/Michael Reaves
LAS VEGAS — For those wondering how the Mets’ courtship of Tarik Skubal might play out, we’ve all seen this movie before. Only it was Juan Soto in the starring role.
As for Tuesday’s latest development, that the Mets have a meeting planned with the back-to-back Cy Young winner next week in California, according to a source (and first reported by the New York Post) — it’s all straight from the Soto script, too. Back in 2024, Mets owner Steve Cohen famously hosted Soto’s contingent, including agent Scott Boras, who also represents Skubal, at his Beverly Hills mansion.
It’s unclear exactly where the Mets intend to huddle with Skubal — the superagent has his HQ just south in Newport Beach — but we’re doubtful this Boras client will be choosing his next team based primarily on high-end hospitality. And while Cohen has proven he can check that box, too, the Mets’ greatest asset in these pursuits of generational talent remains the owner’s willingness to spend whatever it takes to get them to Flushing.
During Soto’s free agency, Cohen satisfied Soto’s goal — and Boras’ mission — to land a record deal by outbidding the Yankees with a colossal 15-year, $765-million contract. This time around, Skubal and Boras are aiming to set new records for a starting pitcher, and who better to make that happen than Cohen, an owner that reminds us every winter his $26 billion fortune isn’t just for show.
“Steve has demonstrated repeatedly throughout his ownership tenure that he’s going to support baseball operations and the baseball operations’ needs,” David Stearns, the president of that department, said Tuesday at the GM meetings. “I expect that to be the case this offseason as well.”
While I didn’t ask that question specifically about Skubal, and Stearns declined to mention anybody by name, we can all agree — wink, wink — that the Mets’ biggest need is a bona fide No. 1 starter, so why not spend for the best one on the market? Look what Jacob Misiorowski did for the Brewers this October. Or Drew Rasmussen for the Rays.
And what’s easier for the Mets than writing a big check for the instant upgrade? It’s just a matter of figuring out just how large, over a relatively short period to negotiate. Two years ago, the Soto sweepstakes came to a resolution during the second week of December, at baseball’s winter meetings in Dallas, which was fairly quick for Boras, who often plays the long game to inflate the numbers. In all likelihood, Skubal’s deal will have to get done by Dec. 1, as the owners are expected to initiate a lockout that shuts down the sport when the current CBA expires on that date.
As the Soto negotiations showed, Boras is fine working in these smaller windows as well, and given the teams competing with the Mets — the deep-pocketed Dodgers and nouveau riche Padres atop that list --- the dollars could get crazy in a hurry. No one knows yet how high the bidding could go, but we have an idea where it’s going to start, and that baseline is going to make this a very exclusive auction, particularly with the owners pushing for a salary cap to take effect in the near future.
Keep these numbers in mind. The first in Skubal’s crosshairs is Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s record $325 million contract, stretched over 12 years. The next is the record AAV of $43.3 million, shared by Max Scherzer — another Boras client — and Justin Verlander. Skubal and Boras will be gunning to clear both of those bars, and it’s almost guaranteed to happen, especially with Cohen going toe-to-toe against the Dodgers, who have been his nemesis in recent years.
If this was strictly about the money, we’d give the nod to the Mets. There is no clearer path to ending their two-year playoff drought than adding Skubal, and as Stearns mentioned, it’s not hard to sell Cohen on something his team desperately needs. Of course, Skubal may initially prefer the Dodgers, as he appeared to enjoy his time in L.A. after joining the back-to-back world champs at the trade deadline, and that could become an obstacle, as it was in the frenzied Kyle Tucker derby last offseason. The Padres are a bit of a wild card, as the franchise is now flush with cash from new ownership.
One thing seems certain. Whatever philosophical guardrails Stearns once deployed against long-term deals for starting pitchers — a logical stance due to injury fears and declining performance — those don’t seem applicable during this winter’s Mets makeover. Not when Skubal is involved anyway. As for his price tag, think somewhere in the eight-year, $360 million range, as a conservative estimate on my part that would satisfy Skubal’s targets.
“Every situation is unique,” Stearns said. “It’s also been well-publicized, that even since I’ve been here, we’ve engaged in extremely long-term negotiations for pitchers and we will do so again. But situation matters, specific circumstance matters, and we do have to look at every individual pitcher on a case-by-case basis.”
Stearns was referencing the Mets’ failed pitch for Yamamoto in 2023, as the Japanese ace decided to take an identical offer from the Dodgers instead. Skubal is shaping up to be a rematch of sorts, and Cohen is not one to back down from a challenge. While that’s definitely beneficial for Skubal and Boras, the ultimate winner would be the Mets if they’re able to close this deal. And we know they’re capable of doing so because Cohen just did it two years ago with Soto, under very similar circumstances that are now beginning to take shape.
David Lennon is an award-winning columnist, a voter for baseball's Hall of Fame and has covered six no-hitters, including two perfect games.
